Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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097
FXUS63 KTOP 292028
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likey potential will be south of the interstate wheresome of
that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours.  Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to near
60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR cigs are expected for the duration of the TAF period. An area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms across central and western
KS will continue to push northeast. Current thinking is the
activity will reach MHK near 20Z and the Topeka terminals near
21Z. Latest model guidance is beginning to hint at the possibility
of IFR cigs during the overnight hours. However, confidence it too
low at this point and will continue to monitor in later outlooks.
Rain is expected to lift north out of the terminals near 13Z,
although low cloud cover may persist through the end of the
period.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg



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