Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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973
FXUS63 KTOP 200534
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Lee side trough has deepened through the day over the high Plains
while the surface high moved southeast into Oklahoma and Texas.
Temperatures have warmed this afternoon into the upper 50s to lower
60s across north central and into northeast Kansas. Tonight
temperatures should cool into the mid to upper 30s as southerly winds
keep the boundary layer mixed. On Monday the pressure gradient will
tighten across northeast and east central Kansas as the high Plains
low pressure trough deepens. Expect southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph
in the afternoon with gusts up to 38 mph in east central Kansas.
Drier air will mix down in the afternoon hours with minimum relative
humidity dropping to around 25 percent in north central Kansas to
the around 30 percent in east central Kansas. The stronger winds
expected in northeast and east central Kansas will produce very high
rangeland fire danger for areas south of Interstate 70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

A series of shortwave troughs embedded within the northern stream
flow aloft over southern Canada will drive a few cold fronts through
the region by the end of the period. The first arrives on Tuesday
morning and will be accompanied with strong northwest winds gusting
up to 30 mph. An expansive surface high pressure builds across the
plains in the wake of that front. Downsloping winds and return flow
becomes established as that high pressure exits into the southern
plains. This will cause the highs to reach the upper 60s by Friday.
Another cold front drops southward on Saturday, but will be dry due
to the lack of moisture. the majority of the arctic air mass remains
entrenched in the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

For the 06z TAFs, short-range guidance shows a 45-48kt 925mb LLJ
in place over the TAF sites overnight into Monday morning. With
sustained surface winds of 10-12kts overnight, expect some LLWS
concerns through much of the overnight hours before the surface
winds increase by mid-morning. VFR conditions are expected
through the period, with southwesterly winds gusting upwards of
25-30kts mid morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke



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