Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FGUS73 KTOP 281848
ESFTOP
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
147 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  8/31/2014 - 11/29/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE          35.0   38.2   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG          19.0   19.4   45.0 :   5   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
:MILL CREEK
WASHINGTON          18.0   19.0   35.0 :  17   16   14   14   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
BARNES              16.0   33.0   38.0 :  17   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BLUE RAPIDS         26.0   52.0   68.0 :  46   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT           19.0   27.5   40.5 :  43   34   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH            16.0   24.0   40.0 :   9   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHAPMAN CREEK
CHAPMAN             19.0   26.0   37.0 :  15   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LYON CREEK
JUNCTION CITY       21.0   35.0   39.0 :  13   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
JUNCTION CITY       22.0   32.0   44.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
FT RILEY            21.0   26.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANHATTAN           18.0   26.0   42.0 :   7   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
WAMEGO              19.0   26.0   38.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION CREEK
LOUISVILLE          30.0   34.0   44.0 :  11   28    7   19   <5   <5
:ROCK CREEK
LOUISVILLE          27.0   33.0   43.0 :   6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
BELVUE              20.0   28.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROSS CREEK
ROSSVILLE           25.0   29.0   31.0 :   6   26   <5    9   <5   <5
:MILL CREEK
PAXICO              21.0   31.0   33.0 :   9   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
TOPEKA              26.0   27.0   44.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CREEK
DELIA               26.0   26.5   29.5 :   8   19    7   17   <5   <5
TOPEKA 4NW          29.0   34.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
LECOMPTON           17.0   23.8   38.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAWRENCE            18.0   20.0   29.0 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WAKARUSA RIVER
LAWRENCE 4S         23.0   25.0   45.0 :   9    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
SCANDIA             10.0   13.0   15.0 :  15    9    9   <5   <5   <5
:BUFFALO CREEK
JAMESTOWN           16.0   19.0   35.0 :  23   23    9    9   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CONCORDIA           15.0   18.0   30.0 :  13   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELK CREEK
CLYDE               14.0   22.0   36.0 :   6    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CLAY CENTER         15.0   21.0   28.0 :  35   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOLOMON RIVER
GLASCO              22.0   25.0   34.0 :  17   19   14   17   <5   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         26.0   30.0   38.0 :   8    9    5   <5   <5   <5
:SALT CREEK
ADA                 18.0   19.0   24.0 :  17   20   16   19   <5   <5
:SOLOMON RIVER
NILES               24.0   28.0   34.0 :  17   24   15   19   <5   <5
:SALINE RIVER
TESCOTT             25.0   29.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ABELINE SAND SPRI   27.0   30.0   33.0 :   8   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUD CREEK
ABILENE             15.0   27.0   33.0 :   8    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ENTERPRISE          26.0   27.0   40.0 :  13   19   12   18   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
READING             19.0   21.0   45.0 :  24   39   18   27   <5   <5
:SALT CREEK
LYNDON              10.0   16.0   24.0 :  12   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK
SCIPIO              23.0   25.0   38.0 :  37   49   32   39   <5   <5
LANE                23.0   24.0   28.5 :  35   45   27   42   <5    5
:TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW          21.0   23.5   40.0 :   8    9    5    6   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA             20.0   24.0   32.0 :  18   32   11   18   <5   <5
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS            26.0   27.0   40.0 :   5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
EMPORIA 3NW         19.0   19.5   30.5 :   9   17    8   16   <5   <5
NEOSHO RAPIDS       22.0   23.0   44.0 :  20   25   18   22   <5   <5
BURLINGTON          27.0   40.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LEROY               23.0   23.0   38.0 :   8   10    8   10   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 8/31/2014 - 11/29/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE           20.8   20.8   20.8   21.8   25.5   32.5   33.6
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG            8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7   11.4   15.2   19.1
:MILL CREEK
WASHINGTON            2.9    2.9    4.1    7.5   15.5   20.6   26.4
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
BARNES               10.2   10.2   10.2   10.2   13.9   19.0   21.9
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BLUE RAPIDS          24.8   24.8   24.8   25.6   30.0   37.1   41.0
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT             4.9    5.9    7.5   15.8   22.1   25.6   27.1
:FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH              6.1    6.2    7.3    8.8   12.0   15.3   20.6
:CHAPMAN CREEK
CHAPMAN               4.4    4.4    5.6    9.8   16.2   20.1   21.5
:LYON CREEK
JUNCTION CITY         5.6    5.6    5.7    8.4   11.3   22.8   26.9
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
JUNCTION CITY         1.3    1.3    3.3    5.4   11.4   19.7   21.2
:KANSAS RIVER
FT RILEY              5.9    5.9    6.9    9.5   12.7   17.4   20.6
MANHATTAN             6.2    6.2    6.8    9.4   12.2   16.3   19.1
WAMEGO                8.1    8.1    8.3    9.8   12.4   14.8   15.3
:VERMILLION CREEK
LOUISVILLE            6.7    6.9    8.7   13.6   23.7   30.6   38.7
:ROCK CREEK
LOUISVILLE            7.2    7.2    9.7   11.5   19.2   24.8   29.4
:KANSAS RIVER
BELVUE               10.0   10.0   10.2   11.4   13.6   15.6   15.9
:CROSS CREEK
ROSSVILLE             9.0    9.0    9.4   11.7   15.3   22.5   25.8
:MILL CREEK
PAXICO                2.1    2.1    2.6    5.3    7.2   18.0   26.4
:KANSAS RIVER
TOPEKA                9.6    9.6    9.8   11.6   15.9   18.3   21.4
:SOLDIER CREEK
DELIA                 6.8    7.0    8.1   15.3   20.0   24.7   27.2
:KANSAS RIVER
LECOMPTON             6.1    6.1    6.4    8.0   12.1   15.7   18.2
LAWRENCE             10.3   10.3   10.5   11.7   14.4   16.0   17.7
:WAKARUSA RIVER
LAWRENCE 4S           4.1    4.2    6.2   10.9   15.8   22.5   24.5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
SCANDIA               4.2    4.2    4.2    5.0    6.3   12.4   13.6
:BUFFALO CREEK
JAMESTOWN             5.0    5.0    6.4   10.8   15.7   18.5   19.3
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CONCORDIA             6.6    6.6    6.6    8.1   11.8   15.6   17.1
:ELK CREEK
CLYDE                 4.8    4.8    5.3    6.4    7.2    9.2   15.0
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CLAY CENTER           8.9    8.9    9.8   12.0   15.9   19.7   20.2
:SOLOMON RIVER
GLASCO                5.0    5.0    5.0    6.1   16.5   28.0   32.0
MINNEAPOLIS           2.9    2.9    2.9    3.5   11.2   23.5   30.2
:SALT CREEK
ADA                   3.5    3.5    4.2    6.0   11.0   20.8   21.6
:SOLOMON RIVER
NILES                 5.5    5.5    5.5    7.1   19.0   29.0   30.1
:SALINE RIVER
TESCOTT               4.3    4.3    4.3    5.5    7.3   18.6   24.2
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ABELINE SAND SPRI     7.5    7.5   10.8   13.2   18.7   25.4   29.3
:MUD CREEK
ABILENE               1.5    1.5    1.5    4.7    8.1   14.0   15.5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ENTERPRISE            7.1    7.1    9.1   12.0   18.8   29.7   31.0
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
READING               1.9    1.9    3.3   10.9   18.0   23.0   24.1
:SALT CREEK
LYNDON                0.6    0.6    1.5    2.3    5.9   11.3   13.3
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK
SCIPIO                2.9    3.0    9.7   19.0   25.4   26.7   27.8
LANE                  3.5    4.3   10.6   17.9   24.3   26.8   28.2
:TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW            1.1    1.1    4.7    9.2   12.1   17.0   24.0
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA               2.0    2.1    3.3    6.2   16.5   24.7   26.3
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS              2.8    3.2    3.8    5.2    9.9   20.6   26.7
EMPORIA 3NW           9.0    9.2    9.5   10.3   14.0   18.3   23.8
NEOSHO RAPIDS         1.1    1.4    2.4    7.3   20.2   26.9   28.4
BURLINGTON            5.9    5.9    6.7    8.9   13.8   18.5   20.1
LEROY                 1.7    2.2    3.7    7.3   14.6   19.9   28.5

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/TOP FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER.

$$





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