Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FGUS73 KTOP 061816
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KSC003-013-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-111-117-127-131-139-
143-149-157-161-177-197-201-071800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TOPEKA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
(HSA) WHICH INCLUDES THE KANSAS RIVER...MARAIS DES CYGNES
RIVER...NEOSHO RIVER...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS.

...THERE IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY OF
FLOODING ALONG MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS THIS SPRING...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE          35.0   38.2   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG          19.0   19.4   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILL CREEK
WASHINGTON          18.0   19.0   35.0 :  28   35   22   29   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
BARNES              16.0   33.0   38.0 :  32   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BLUE RAPIDS         26.0   52.0   68.0 :  59   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT           19.0   27.5   40.5 :  66   55    7    6   <5   <5
:FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH            16.0   24.0   40.0 :  27   27    6    7   <5   <5
:CHAPMAN CREEK
CHAPMAN             19.0   26.0   37.0 :  24   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LYON CREEK
JUNCTION CITY       21.0   35.0   39.0 :  18   34   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
JUNCTION CITY       22.0   32.0   44.0 :   7   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
FT RILEY            21.0   26.0   33.0 :  12   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
MANHATTAN           18.0   26.0   42.0 :  20   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
WAMEGO              19.0   26.0   38.0 :  11   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:VERMILLION CREEK
LOUISVILLE          30.0   34.0   44.0 :  41   52   28   36   <5   <5
:ROCK CREEK
LOUISVILLE          27.0   33.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
BELVUE              20.0   28.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROSS CREEK
ROSSVILLE           25.0   29.0   31.0 :  <5   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MILL CREEK
PAXICO              21.0   31.0   33.0 :  28   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
TOPEKA              26.0   27.0   44.0 :   8   14    6   12   <5   <5
:SOLDIER CREEK
DELIA               26.0   26.5   29.5 :   5   15   <5    6   <5   <5
TOPEKA 4NW          29.0   34.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
LECOMPTON           17.0   23.8   38.0 :  17   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAWRENCE            18.0   20.0   29.0 :  11   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WAKARUSA RIVER
LAWRENCE 4S         23.0   25.0   45.0 :  10   12    7    7   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
SCANDIA             10.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BUFFALO CREEK
JAMESTOWN           16.0   19.0   35.0 :  18   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CONCORDIA           15.0   18.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ELK CREEK
CLYDE               14.0   22.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CLAY CENTER         15.0   21.0   28.0 :  27   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOLOMON RIVER
GLASCO              22.0   25.0   34.0 :  10   29    8   17   <5   <5
MINNEAPOLIS         26.0   30.0   38.0 :   6    9   <5    6   <5   <5
:SALT CREEK
ADA                 18.0   19.0   24.0 :  24   45   23   45   <5   <5
:SOLOMON RIVER
NILES               24.0   28.0   34.0 :  36   54   17   45   <5   <5
:SALINE RIVER
TESCOTT             25.0   29.0   32.0 :  25   34   21   23   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ABELINE SAND SPRI   27.0   30.0   33.0 :  20   30   11   15   <5   <5
:MUD CREEK
ABILENE             15.0   27.0   33.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ENTERPRISE          26.0   27.0   40.0 :  23   35   22   34   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
READING             19.0   21.0   45.0 :  41   49   28   40   <5   <5
:SALT CREEK
LYNDON              10.0   16.0   24.0 :  22   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK
SCIPIO              23.0   25.0   38.0 :  74   59   58   38   <5   <5
LANE                23.0   24.0   28.5 :  50   55   31   34   <5   <5
:TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW          21.0   23.5   40.0 :  12   19   <5   12   <5   <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA             20.0   24.0   32.0 :  33   34   16   17   <5   <5
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS            26.0   27.0   40.0 :  10   15    5   11   <5   <5
EMPORIA 3NW         19.0   19.5   30.5 :  21   26   19   24   <5   <5
NEOSHO RAPIDS       22.0   23.0   44.0 :  34   34   31   31   <5   <5
BURLINGTON          27.0   40.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LEROY               23.0   23.0   38.0 :  11   16   11   16   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE           12.9   13.8   17.5   21.0   25.6   27.9   30.4
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG            2.6    3.4    5.4    8.8   12.1   13.8   17.5
:MILL CREEK
WASHINGTON            3.5    4.7    8.0   12.5   18.3   21.0   22.7
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
BARNES                5.1    6.0    8.4   13.8   17.2   19.4   20.2
:BIG BLUE RIVER
BLUE RAPIDS          17.1   18.4   21.7   28.0   31.5   34.3   35.1
:BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT             7.8    7.9   17.1   22.6   25.0   26.9   27.7
:FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH              7.1    9.1   11.7   13.3   16.1   21.7   25.4
:CHAPMAN CREEK
CHAPMAN               4.6    5.7    8.0   12.4   18.5   21.0   21.4
:LYON CREEK
JUNCTION CITY         6.5    7.5    8.7   11.8   15.1   26.9   28.0
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
JUNCTION CITY         3.5    4.2    7.2   11.4   16.8   21.1   22.7
:KANSAS RIVER
FT RILEY              7.0    7.7   10.0   11.9   16.2   21.4   24.7
MANHATTAN             7.0    7.5    9.8   11.3   15.8   19.6   22.6
WAMEGO                6.3    6.8    8.5   12.1   15.1   20.1   20.2
:VERMILLION CREEK
LOUISVILLE            8.7   12.3   17.8   27.6   34.8   38.5   39.4
:ROCK CREEK
LOUISVILLE            9.4   10.9   13.3   16.9   22.2   25.1   26.2
:KANSAS RIVER
BELVUE                8.8    9.3   11.5   13.6   15.7   18.9   19.2
:CROSS CREEK
ROSSVILLE             9.5   10.7   13.3   15.0   19.5   22.0   22.7
:MILL CREEK
PAXICO                4.1    6.6    7.4   12.4   23.8   28.1   29.0
:KANSAS RIVER
TOPEKA                9.4    9.9   13.6   15.9   19.6   25.3   27.4
:SOLDIER CREEK
DELIA                 8.2    9.1   12.6   17.3   22.6   24.9   26.0
TOPEKA 4NW            2.3    3.2    5.7    9.5   13.1   16.6   18.1
:KANSAS RIVER
LECOMPTON             6.1    9.3   11.3   12.8   14.7   18.7   20.1
LAWRENCE             10.3   12.6   13.8   14.7   15.8   18.1   19.2
:WAKARUSA RIVER
LAWRENCE 4S           7.2    9.6   10.7   15.0   19.1   23.0   26.9
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
SCANDIA               3.5    3.8    4.1    4.8    5.5    7.6    9.1
:BUFFALO CREEK
JAMESTOWN             4.1    5.9    9.0   11.6   14.9   17.7   18.1
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CONCORDIA             4.6    5.6    6.7    8.3   10.0   12.4   13.0
:ELK CREEK
CLYDE                 4.6    5.0    5.7    6.7    7.2    8.1    9.0
:REPUBLICAN RIVER
CLAY CENTER           6.5    7.9   10.1   12.6   15.2   16.9   19.9
:SOLOMON RIVER
GLASCO                4.4    4.8    5.1   10.3   19.3   21.4   30.7
MINNEAPOLIS           2.0    2.3    2.5    7.8   16.4   18.3   29.2
:SALT CREEK
ADA                   3.4    3.4    5.0    8.9   16.2   21.6   22.8
:SOLOMON RIVER
NILES                 4.1    4.7    9.9   18.8   27.1   29.1   30.2
:SALINE RIVER
TESCOTT               5.1    5.1    7.1   13.7   24.9   30.2   31.5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ABELINE SAND SPRI    12.7   13.9   16.7   21.4   23.1   30.4   30.5
:MUD CREEK
ABILENE               1.5    2.3    4.0    6.0   10.8   13.8   15.2
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ENTERPRISE           10.5   11.4   14.3   19.0   24.5   32.4   34.0
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
READING               3.7    4.3    7.2   16.6   21.3   23.0   23.5
:SALT CREEK
LYNDON                1.1    2.1    2.6    5.7    9.4   11.9   12.5
:POTTAWATOMIE CREEK
SCIPIO               12.4   16.5   22.5   25.2   25.9   26.8   26.9
LANE                 13.2   15.9   19.7   23.0   24.3   26.2   27.2
:TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW            5.0    6.8    9.6   12.5   17.5   22.0   22.5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA               5.1    5.9    8.7   16.2   21.9   25.5   26.1
:NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS              6.0    7.3   10.3   12.4   20.3   26.2   27.2
EMPORIA 3NW          10.8   11.2   12.5   13.6   17.3   23.7   24.3
NEOSHO RAPIDS         4.8    5.8   11.0   17.5   24.9   26.4   27.2
BURLINGTON            9.6   10.2   12.5   15.2   17.9   20.1   22.3
LEROY                 6.9    9.1   11.4   16.3   20.1   23.3   24.5

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

OUTLOOK:

FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
FLOODING IS GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
TOPEKA HSA.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW BASINS WHICH SHOW HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE FLOOD PROBABILITIES. THESE BASINS INCLUDE THE BIG BLUE RIVER
AT BLUE RAPIDS...THE BLACK VERMILLION RIVER AT FRANKFORT...AND
POTTAWATOMIE CREEK AT SCIPIO. AT THIS TIME...TYPICAL SPRING RAINFALL
WILL DRIVE ANY FLOODING WHICH OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION AS THERE IS
NOT A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

RECENT CONDITIONS:

FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
TOPEKA HSA HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
REGION WAS ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN NORTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES AVERAGED IN THE LOWER 20S. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST
THREE MONTHS. THESE VALUES WERE BELOW NORMAL. PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION VALUES APPROACHED 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE DRIEST
LOCATIONS.

PRESENT CONDITIONS:

7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW INDICATES BELOW NORMAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
NORMAL STREAMFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MARAIS DES CYGNES
BASIN.

ACROSS THE REGION...CPC SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY DATA INDICATES DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR HIGHLIGHTS ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TOPEKA HSA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE DRIEST AREAS ARE FOUND ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE EDGE OF MODERATE DROUGHT ENCROACHING
ON REPUBLIC...CLOUD...AND OTTAWA COUNTIES.

THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ACROSS KANSAS AS ONLY AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW PACK REMAINS FROM RECENT WINTER STORMS.

FUTURE CONDITIONS:

FOR THE 6 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK INDICATES AN
ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS.  THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES A GREATER PROBABILITY OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...THE LATEST CLIMATE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE THREE MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
ALSO CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THIS IS THE FINAL SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014.

PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/TOP/ FOR MORE
WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.

$$

SAW













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