Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

000
FNUS73 KTOP 112208
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Blue Rapids Fire 1700...STATE/FEDERAL OFFICIAL
National Weather Service Topeka KS
508 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on April 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will remain gusty over the next two hours out of the northwest until
the BL decouples. Expect wind gusts up to 30-35 mph at times with sustained winds
ranging between 20-25 mph. RH values will likely not recover above 30 percent
until after midnight with RH values around 50 percent expected by sunrise Friday.
Winds overnight will be lighter, around 5-10 mph with minimal gusts. For Friday,
winds will again remain light with surface ridging passing over the area and shifting
winds back to the south; all under 10 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........63 at forecast start...Min 34.
RH..................17 percent at forecast start...Max 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds northwest at 19 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Northwest winds 10 to 19 mph
                    with gusts to around 28 mph decreasing to 5 to
                    8 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 400
                    ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /246800 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Min...excellent /246800 knot-ft/ decreasing to
                    good (55500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  61  57  52  48  45  43  41  40  39  37  35
RH..............17  19  21  24  27  32  33  39  42  46  50  54
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..19  16  10  8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.28  23  16  14  13  11  11  9   9   9   12  8
Mix hgt (kft)...8.5 2.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/1000247 56  11  7   6   5   5   5   5   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (49200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............34     41     55     64     69     72
RH..............58     48     34     23     19     18
20 FT wind dir..W      NW     NW     W      W      SW
20 FT wind spd..5      5      5      6      6      6
20 FT wind gust.8      8      11     9      9      11
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1800   3600   4400   4900
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10004      4      13     25     35     49

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 8 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR     CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............73        61        52        52
RH..............18        28        43        48
20 FT wind dir..S         SE        SE        SE
20 FT wind spd..6         5         7         8
20 FT wind gust.9         8         13        13
Mix hgt (ft)....2100      500       400       500
Haines index....4         4         4         5
SDspl kt-ft/100019        5         5         6

$$
Forecaster...Griesemer
Requested by...Bryce Haverkamp
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410418.0/TOP
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bhaverkamp@kfs.gov