Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 180443
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CONFIDENCE IN IFR VSBY IS IS DIMINISHING AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS LIGHT AS EXPECTED. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME MVFR VSBY TO OCCUR...BUT WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF IFR VSBY. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM
GENERATING MID DAY CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN KS. THERE IS NO GOOD
EXPLANATION FOR THE NAMS DISJOINTED COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPS
WHICH WEAKENS THE CAP. THE RAP ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 90. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          831 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 603 PM):        200FT  127/10 MPH
                                      400FT  123/12 MPH
                                      600FT  127/11 MPH
                                      800FT  132/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  147/09 MPH
                                     1500FT  163/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  160/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 130/07 MPH
                                      105FT  130/11 MPH
                                      259FT  132/18 MPH
                                      531FT  140/26 MPH
                                      939FT  143/23 MPH
                                     1470FT  150/19 MPH
                                     2114FT  173/16 MPH
                                     2836FT  191/20 MPH
                                     3635FT  199/23 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 139/07 MPH
                                      102FT  139/10 MPH
                                      258FT  142/17 MPH
                                      531FT  148/26 MPH
                                      935FT  151/25 MPH
                                     1467FT  157/21 MPH
                                     2110FT  181/21 MPH
                                     2831FT  188/22 MPH
                                     3629FT  199/23 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):        21 129/11 MPH
                                      105FT  131/14 MPH
                                      262FT  133/16 MPH
                                      535FT  145/27 MPH
                                      943FT  151/25 MPH
                                     1467FT  157/21 MPH
                                     2110FT  181/21 MPH
                                     2831FT  188/22 MPH
                                     3629FT  199/23 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        607 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  130/03 MPH
                    8 AM  130/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$
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