Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 142324
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CONFIDENCE IN TS MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS IS TO LOW TO PUT MORE
THAN A PROB30 IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE DYNAMIC FORCING FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER IA WHILE THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING FOR MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO KICK START
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS 700-500MB LAPSE RATES REMAIN
FAIRLY STEEP SO TS CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY. AM A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FROPA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE STRATUS
DECK BEHIND THE FRONT, SO THINK THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME -DZ.
THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER SKIES CLEAR OUT AND STRATUS FORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPING THE MOISTURE RETURN VERY SHALLOW AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED, THINK THERE MAY BE
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO MAKE STRATUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT A
LITTLE LESS LIKELY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          732 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  150/10 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  164/14 MPH
                                      400FT  166/17 MPH
                                      600FT  162/16 MPH
                                      800FT  156/15 MPH
                                     1000FT  165/17 MPH
                                     1500FT  171/19 MPH
                                     2000FT  172/20 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 177/10 MPH
                                       71FT  178/12 MPH
                                      229FT  179/14 MPH
                                      502FT  179/15 MPH
                                      909FT  180/15 MPH
                                     1440FT  180/16 MPH
                                     2082FT  181/16 MPH
                                     2798FT  182/17 MPH
                                     3588FT  183/17 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 189/09 MPH
                                       68FT  189/12 MPH
                                      226FT  189/13 MPH
                                      500FT  189/14 MPH
                                      910FT  189/15 MPH
                                     1439FT  188/16 MPH
                                     2083FT  188/16 MPH
                                     2800FT  189/16 MPH
                                     3591FT  200/17 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 170/05 MPH
                                       68FT  173/09 MPH
                                      226FT  176/12 MPH
                                      500FT  177/14 MPH
                                      910FT  189/15 MPH
                                     1439FT  188/16 MPH
                                     2083FT  188/16 MPH
                                     2800FT  189/16 MPH
                                     3591FT  200/17 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  2194 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        704 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   7 AM  180/06 MPH
                    9 AM  250/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$







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