Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 202348
RECTOP

AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

THE NEXT 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS TRICKY, BUT A VARIETY
OF PRECIP TYPES SHOULD FALL OVER THE TERMINALS. CURRENTLY, SOME
AREAS OF SLEET HAVE BEEN FALLING TO THE NORTHEAST OF KTOP/KFOE,
BUT MOST OTHER AREAS HAVE YET TO SATURATE, WHICH IS ONE REASON FOR
HOLDING PRECIP BACK A BIT AND JUST KEEPING MVFR CIGS IN PLACE. THE
0400Z-1100Z TIME FRAME DOES LOOK TO BE THE WORST PERIOD WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MIXED FREEZING PRECIP TO FALL AT SOME POINT.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ACTUAL TYPE THAT WILL FALL, AND FOR HOW LONG,
STILL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEFORE THE PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, THE
SOUNDING INDICATES LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FOR THE LONGEST TIME, BUT THE WORST CASE IS A SMALL PERIOD
OF FREEZING MIXED PRECIP. AFTER MID-MORNING, THE TREND SHOULD
IMPROVE AS CLOUDS LIFT TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
    SUNSET:                          605 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 508 PM):        200FT  102/07 MPH
                                      400FT  111/09 MPH
                                      600FT  116/10 MPH
                                      800FT  123/09 MPH
                                     1000FT  141/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  120/07 MPH
                                     2000FT  066/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):        22FT  080/04 MPH
                                      101FT  082/05 MPH
                                      249FT  080/05 MPH
                                      501FT  081/05 MPH
                                      879FT  083/05 MPH
                                     1370FT  087/04 MPH
                                     1965FT  083/04 MPH
                                     2636FT  048/06 MPH
                                     3390FT  034/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACEFT  069/06 MPH
                                       93FT  069/07 MPH
                                      237FT  072/08 MPH
                                      490FT  073/08 MPH
                                      870FT  077/07 MPH
                                     1359FT  077/06 MPH
                                     1959FT  053/08 MPH
                                     2632FT  038/16 MPH
                                     3378FT  027/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACEFT  107/07 MPH
                                       95FT  107/10 MPH
                                      243FT  107/12 MPH
                                      496FT  106/13 MPH
                                      870FT  077/07 MPH
                                     1359FT  077/06 MPH
                                     1959FT  053/08 MPH
                                     2632FT  038/16 MPH
                                     3378FT  027/15 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        707 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   7 AM  320/07 MPH
                    9 AM  340/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$






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