Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 142316
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
616 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

ALL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE BETWEEN 700 AND 600MB WITH SATURATION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF VCTS WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS IS RATHER
MODEST, SO UNLESS A PARTICULARLY INTENSE RAIN SHAFT MOVES OVER AN
AIRFIELD REDUCING VSBY, THINK VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WITH THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY. EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK IN PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE LOW LEVELS MIX OUT AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DIMINISHES BY LATE MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE BEST
FORCING OF THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST KS LATE IN
THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FOCUS FOR CONVECTION STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AS
THE GFS APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED WITH THE ENERGY. BECAUSE OF
THIS AM CONCERNED THAT COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT IN NATURE, AND
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          819 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  130/09 MPH
                                     8 PM  130/09 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  106/10 MPH
                                      400FT  104/12 MPH
                                      600FT  109/13 MPH
                                      800FT  115/15 MPH
                                     1000FT  124/14 MPH
                                     1500FT  135/13 MPH
                                     2000FT  143/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 106/10 MPH
                                       45FT  106/11 MPH
                                      207FT  108/12 MPH
                                      489FT  109/12 MPH
                                      907FT  111/12 MPH
                                     1454FT  117/11 MPH
                                     2112FT  123/11 MPH
                                     2845FT  131/11 MPH
                                     3657FT  143/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 105/10 MPH
                                       48FT  107/12 MPH
                                      210FT  108/13 MPH
                                      492FT  109/13 MPH
                                      910FT  112/13 MPH
                                     1454FT  116/13 MPH
                                     2112FT  122/12 MPH
                                     2846FT  134/12 MPH
                                     3656FT  158/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 100/10 MPH
                                       51FT  102/13 MPH
                                      213FT  103/15 MPH
                                      494FT  105/16 MPH
                                      911FT  112/13 MPH
                                     1454FT  116/13 MPH
                                     2112FT  122/12 MPH
                                     2846FT  134/12 MPH
                                     3656FT  158/11 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3126 FT
                                     8 PM  3003 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        636 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  150/06 MPH
                    8 AM  160/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$







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