Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 171804
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO DRY
AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF IS MARGINAL, BUT THERE ARE SIGNS FROM SATELLITE AND
RECENT OBS THAT IT IS STARTING TO ERODE. INITALLY BASED THE TIMING
OF IMPROVEMENTS TO CIGS ON THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT ADJUSTED
THEM TO HOLD ONTO THE CIGS SLIGHTLY LONGER SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE
A EXPANSIVE DECK OF CLOUDS STILL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ELEVATED PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THINK THIS
MAY BE DUE TO SOME DRY AIR IN THE 900MB TO 700MB LAYER SEEN IN THE
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. WITH MODELS SHEARING OUT THE UPSTREAM
VORTICITY OR KEEPING THE VORT MAX TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS, THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS AND WILL NOT INSERT A MENTION OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
MOS GUIDANCE ALSO WANTS TO REDEVELOP FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE) FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM
SUGGEST ANY MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW AND THAT 925MB WINDS OF
15 TO 20KT SHOULD KEEP SOME DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY MODELS SHOW SOME POSSIBLE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD LIMITING THE RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FOR
GROUND FOG. BECAUSE OF THIS, I`M NOT READY TO PUT IFR VSBY IN THE
FORECAST.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          728 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           5 PM  090/07 MPH
                                     7 PM  080/07 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 621 AM):        200FT  129/09 MPH
                                      400FT  142/11 MPH
                                      600FT  176/12 MPH
                                      800FT  202/14 MPH
                                     1000FT  227/23 MPH
                                     1500FT  238/33 MPH
                                     2000FT  255/40 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 107/08 MPH
                                       74FT  108/09 MPH
                                      233FT  108/10 MPH
                                      508FT  108/10 MPH
                                      918FT  106/11 MPH
                                     1449FT  106/11 MPH
                                     2097FT  103/11 MPH
                                     2819FT  081/10 MPH
                                     3619FT  032/17 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 099/07 MPH
                                       74FT  099/08 MPH
                                      233FT  099/09 MPH
                                      508FT  099/09 MPH
                                      917FT  099/09 MPH
                                     1451FT  099/09 MPH
                                     2100FT  093/09 MPH
                                     2819FT  063/12 MPH
                                     3621FT  033/16 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 096/04 MPH
                                       80FT  095/07 MPH
                                      235FT  096/09 MPH
                                      513FT  096/09 MPH
                                      921FT  099/09 MPH
                                     1451FT  099/09 MPH
                                     2100FT  093/09 MPH
                                     2819FT  063/12 MPH
                                     3621FT  033/16 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                5 PM  3157 FT
                                     7 PM  2909 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        707 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   7 AM  090/07 MPH
                    9 AM  100/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$






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