Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 152324
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE ELEVATED SHRA SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. FORTUNATELY THE IMPACTS SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR VSBY WITHIN THE HEAVIER
SHRA. THE 23Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS OVERHEAD NOW. THINK THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THAT THE RAP IS OVERDOING THE QPF BY
HANGING ONTO ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LONG. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE AS
GOOD AS ANY DEPICTION ON THE CURRENT PRECIP. WITH NO REAL
DEVELOPMENT GOING ON OVER NORTHWESTERN KS OR SOUTHERN NEB, THINK
THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF MHK REPRESENT THE BACK EDGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE TIMED THIS FEATURE OUT TO BRING AN END TO A
MENTION OF PRECIP. OF COURSE IF SKIES CLEAR OUT, THE CHANCES FOR
GROUND FOG WILL INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUDS THIS EVENING
TO SEE IF FOG SHOULD BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          817 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  170/12 MPH
                                     8 PM  170/10 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  090/14 MPH
                                      400FT  097/19 MPH
                                      600FT  106/20 MPH
                                      800FT  114/20 MPH
                                     1000FT  136/19 MPH
                                     1500FT  154/20 MPH
                                     2000FT  165/21 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 060/04 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  065/05 MPH
                                      168FT  066/05 MPH
                                      449FT  069/06 MPH
                                      864FT  092/05 MPH
                                     1411FT  122/06 MPH
                                     2070FT  153/08 MPH
                                     2803FT  170/12 MPH
                                     3615FT  184/16 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 119/08 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  119/13 MPH
                                      159FT  119/17 MPH
                                      440FT  121/19 MPH
                                      858FT  125/20 MPH
                                     1402FT  140/17 MPH
                                     2058FT  166/18 MPH
                                     2792FT  182/23 MPH
                                     3606FT  194/29 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 148/14 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  147/23 MPH
                                      164FT  147/27 MPH
                                      443FT  148/30 MPH
                                      856FT  125/20 MPH
                                     1402FT  140/17 MPH
                                     2058FT  166/18 MPH
                                     2792FT  182/23 MPH
                                     3606FT  194/29 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3399 FT
                                     8 PM  3276 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        637 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  210/08 MPH
                    8 AM  220/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$







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