Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 150548
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1248 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

CONFIDENCE IN HOW SCATTERED SHRA AND TS WILL EVOLVE IS DECREASING
A LITTLE AS THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW MORE PRECIP
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. AM INCLINED TO LEAN WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
AS THE 04Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST KS. THIS IS A GOOD 4 TO 6 HOURS
QUICKER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. SO THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL
ELEVATED STORMS CAUSED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT BUT THINK THEY WILL
LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES. WHETHER SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OR IF THERE IS A BREAK IS WHERE MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES. FOR NOW THE TAFS ARE A BEST GUESS OF TIMING PRECIP.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS AT SOME POINT
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. IMPACTS INITIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR
DUE TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE MORNING. IF THERE
IS SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
CREATE SOME VSBY ISSUES WITH MODERATE OR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         635 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 AM  130/07 MPH
                                     8 AM  140/09 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  106/10 MPH
                                      400FT  104/12 MPH
                                      600FT  109/13 MPH
                                      800FT  115/15 MPH
                                     1000FT  124/14 MPH
                                     1500FT  135/13 MPH
                                     2000FT  143/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 143/08 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  146/14 MPH
                                      170FT  148/17 MPH
                                      448FT  168/22 MPH
                                      858FT  189/28 MPH
                                     1395FT  200/30 MPH
                                     2053FT  206/27 MPH
                                     2786FT  215/23 MPH
                                     3598FT  226/21 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 141/10 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  144/18 MPH
                                      176FT  146/20 MPH
                                      450FT  167/26 MPH
                                      861FT  189/30 MPH
                                     1402FT  198/31 MPH
                                     2061FT  204/27 MPH
                                     2792FT  213/25 MPH
                                     3605FT  223/24 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 172/11 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  173/14 MPH
                                      171FT  174/17 MPH
                                      449FT  179/20 MPH
                                      858FT  189/30 MPH
                                     1402FT  198/31 MPH
                                     2061FT  204/27 MPH
                                     2792FT  213/25 MPH
                                     3605FT  223/24 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 AM  2062 FT
                                     8 AM  2262 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         819 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  160/13 MPH
                    8 PM  160/12 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$






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