Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 140525 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS GETTING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES RIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...AMID A SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH
THE 70S AND 80S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. FROM NOW THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING...WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF
STRATUS/STRATO-CUMULUS WORKING DOWN OUT OF CANADA RIGHT NOW.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT ANALYZED
OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL WORK SOUTH INTO THIS REGION OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY...USHERING IN SOME RATHER CHILLY CANADIAN AIR. THE
STRATUS CLOUDS WORKING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY STICKING AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER AND ADVECTION OF SOME
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR FOR JULY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTTLED UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ELSEWHERE...HIGH JULY SUN-ANGLE
WILL BATTLE THE LOW LEVEL CAA...AND HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 70S...DESPITE 925HPA TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AND 850HPA TEMPERATURES PROGGED BETWEEN
+7C AND +12C DURING PEAK HEATING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME 3-5KFT DEEP
STRATO-CU ON MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU.
WHETHER OR NOT THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...BUT
WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED TO MENTION A COLLABORATED RAIN SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS THAT AREA ON MONDAY. IT`S ALSO NOT CLEAR WHETHER OR NOT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT AND STAY OUT OF THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
BE CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH...WHERE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP SHOP. THIS IS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DROPPING INTO THE
40S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO MINNESOTA. MODERATED AIRMASS THEORY
KICKS IN ON TUESDAY...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION GOING NEUTRAL. TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
ZONES...TEMPERATURES CLOUD POSSIBLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN A
FEW SPOTS.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EASTERN CONUS TROF WILL MIGRATE EAST WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD.
THIS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS GIVES US OUR BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP
WITH THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER. THERE MAY STILL BE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLOUD UP LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AT ABR AND ATY AS STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR/LOW VFR. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING
AT ALL LOCATIONS.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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