Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240121
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
921 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift across the region this evening, followed
by a cold front late tonight into Saturday. Another cold front
will begin to cross the region later Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
9:21 PM Update...Showers continue to stream northeast from
central Piscataquis County to northeast Aroostook County ahead
of a warm front. There have not been any lightning strikes with
any of the activity this evening. Some elevated convection is
possible late this evening and overnight, but any thunder will
likely be very isolated. The precipitable water on the 00z KCAR
sounding was 1.70", which is a daily record and indicative of
the deep moisture across the CWA. Any showers tonight will have
the ability to produce heavy downpours. The Eastport AWOS has
been reporting 1/4 mile visibility with a spotter report of
dense fog along coastal Washington County. Issued a dense fog
advisory for coastal Washington County earlier this evening
which is in effect until 5 am Saturday morning. Only minor
updates are planned based mainly on the latest observations,
radar trends, and near term models and model trends.

Previous discussion...
Isolated thunderstorms and localized heavy rain still a threat
for the remainder of this afternoon into the overnight.

A warm front currently lies stretches from northern NY to
extreme southern ME this afternoon. This boundary will continue
to slowly trek northward overnight. Some clearing has occurred
just ahead of the boundary, allowing thunderstorms to develop
over central/southern New England. Our region has remained out
of the sunshine and is therefore pretty stable, but can`t rule
out a possible thunderstorm or two over the Bangor region
through late afternoon. Thereafter, the focus will turn to
northern Maine as elevated instability moves in, along with good
warm air advection. PWATs will approach 2 inches, as well. The
combination of these parameters will allow areas of moderate to
locally heavy rain to cross from southwest to northeast
overnight, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder or two. The
warm front will push through just about the entire region by
late tonight, then a cold front will begin to make its way
southward. This will shunt the steadiest activity southward
toward the coast. With plentiful moisture around tonight,
overnight lows will be on the uncomfortable side, mainly in the
lower and mid 60s.

As mentioned above, the cold front will be making its way southward
through the state on Saturday. Expect showers will be focused over
Downeast Maine by mid morning. These will push offshore during the
afternoon hours. Breaks of sunshine will develop thereafter with a
few showers lingering across the north. Highs will be warmer than
today, mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though winds will be a
little breezy out of the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Progressive fast flow with below normal mid tropospheric pres
hts alf will result in rapid chgs in sensible wx both in the
short and long term. Any eve shwrs Sat eve should dissipate by
erly Sun morn as an initial s/wv ridge alf builds from the W ovr
the Rgn. This will be followed up by a fast movg s/wv trof alf
for Sun aftn, resulting in a fair start Sun morn becoming ptly
to msly cldy with sct shwrs/tstms in the aftn and eve. Whats
left of the upper trof and a weak cold front will also result in
sct shwrs and aftn tstms on Mon, but more so ovr Cntrl ptns of
the Rgn tan the far N. Temps will be near to slightly below avg
in the short term for this tm of season.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Other progressive s/wvs alf from E Cntrl Can will keep msly
unsettled conditions for the Rgn msly for aftn and eve hrs for
Tue and Wed where sct shwrs will have the greatest chc of
occurrence. Most longer range models then indicate a more sig
s/wv for Thu into Thu ngt from Cntrl Can accompanied by a surge
of warmer air for the late week. Given rapid speed of s/wvs and
tmg uncertainties, for now outside of high trrn, we kept max
PoPs for any shwr activity in the hi chc range for now, with
later fcst updates re-visiting the weighting of higher PoPs for
specific s/wvs as they become closer in real tm. What can be
said attm is that there does not look to be any lengthy rn pds,
but also not much opportunity be to rn free for much greater
than 12 hrs attm, spcly for the N hlf of the Rgn.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR the remainder of the night in low
ceilings and fog. Showers will be most persistent at the
northern terminals, and a thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled
out. A cold front will cross the region on Saturday, bringing
showers to an end and raising conditions to MVFR from north to
south after 12z Sat. All sites to be MVFR or VFR by 18z Sat.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: All TAF sites will mainly be VFR Sat ngt
thru Wed, xcpt briefly MVFR clgs/vsbys attms in heavier shwrs
and isold tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight. The
wind and seas are below criteria this evening, but there are a
couple of buoys with wind gusts around 25 knots to the south of
our forecast waters, so will hold onto the advisory for now. The
seas are only running around 2 ft, but may build some overnight
ahead of a cold front. It is possible that the midnight shift
might be able to drop the advisory earlier than the current
expiration time of 8 AM, but with some stronger wind to our
south will hold off on cancelling the advisory with this update.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated for these ptns of
the fcst attm, with wv hts ovr outer MZs decreasing from SCA
thresholds Sat ngt. Went with 75 to 85 percent of WW3 wv
guidance or fcst wv hts with primary wv pds will ranging from 5
to 7 sec.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is potential for very heavy downpours late this evening
into the overnight along a slow moving warm frontal boundary.
The highest risk at this time will be mostly north of a line
from Dover- Foxcroft towards Houlton. Urban and small stream
flooding are the risks as a half inch or more of rain could fall
within a very short time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Hastings
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...CB/Hastings/Hastings
Marine...CB/Hastings/Hastings
Hydrology...Hastings


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