Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 150140
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
940 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE 940 PM EDT: LOW CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING ON IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE. WILL STICK WITH
CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE 730 PM EDT: LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE TRENDS
IF SKIES DO NOT CLEAR AS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE FAR NORTH AND WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
FREEZING IN CENTRAL AREAS. FROST WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTH
WITH PATCHY FROST IN CENTRAL AREAS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE MORNING WILL BEGIN MOSTLY SUNNY
EXCEPT FOR SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME RIVER FOG.
CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MONDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE MID 60S DOWNEAST.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN MAINE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS DOWNEAST. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF THEN CROSSES THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE COULD BE SEEING A SUBSTANTIAL FROST/FREEZE BY LATE WEEK WHICH
COULD END THE GROWING SEASON.

A COLD FRONT IS SHOWN BY THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
W/BRINGING SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE REGION MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND ECMWF KEEP
THE REGION DRY W/THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING IN QUEBEC.
DEFINITELY SOME PRETTY COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT W/1000-850MB
PAR ITAL THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 1340M BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO DROP TO NEAR 0C
ESPECIALLY BACK ACROSS THE FAR NW. IF ANY PRECIP WERE TO OCCUR, IT
WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND W/THE AFOREMENTIONED ITEMS, THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW FLAKES AROUND. THE LACKING INGREDIENT IS THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW GYX`S LEAD AND KEEP
15-20% POPS ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FROST OR FREEZE DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND DOWNEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NNW WIND
OF AT LEAST 5 TO 7 MPH WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE BLYR
MIXED NEGATING ANY FROST OR FREEZE THREAT. CLOUDS HANGING ON AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WOULD AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURE UP A FEW DEGREES. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
STATE. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD SETUP. DECIDED TO GO W/ UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/LOW TO MID 30S CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY FOR MID SEPTEMBER W/50S ACROSS THE THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60. A
GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND
W/A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E. THE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET WEATHER W/ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME PATCHY
FOG TOWARD MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...BLOOMER/OKULSKI/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/OKULSKI/NORCROSS






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