Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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257
FXUS61 KCAR 190210
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1010 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the area tonight. An occluded front will
slowly cross the region Saturday through Saturday night. High
pressure will build south of the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
.1010 PM Update. Updated to keep thing current, made minor
adjustments to the hourly temperatures and skycon.

.Previous discussion. A warm front lifting into the region
tonight combined with a weak surface low along the coast will
provide focus for an area of rain moving across the region
tonight. Most of rain will be concentrated along coastal
Downeast where the surface wave will provide focus for
precipitation. Rainfall further north across central and
northern areas is expected to be generally light and spotty.
Have worded precipitation as rain Downeast this evening with
showers further north, then showers throughout the region later
tonight as precipitation tapers off. A dry push surging in from
the southwest in the mid levels will end showers late tonight
into Saturday morning. Some breaks of sunshine are possible
during the midday, especially down toward the southwest. There
will be another chance for more showers later in the day as a
surface occlusion pushes in from the west. The air will be warm
and humid across the area on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An occluded front will cross the region Saturday night, with an
upper level trof approaching late. Expect mostly cloudy skies
along with a chance of showers across northern areas Saturday
night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of
showers Downeast. The upper trof crosses the region Sunday.
Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers early
Sunday with decreasing clouds during the afternoon across
northern areas. Across Downeast areas, expect a partly/mostly
cloudy morning with the slight chance of showers then decreasing
clouds during the afternoon. High pressure builds south of the
region Sunday night into Monday. Expect decreasing clouds across
northern areas Sunday night, with mostly clear skies Downeast.
Expect mostly sunny skies across the entire region Monday
morning. A disturbance crossing Quebec province will produce
showers and thunderstorms west of the region Monday afternoon.
Expect partly sunny skies across northern areas Monday
afternoon, with the slight chance of the showers/thunderstorms
from Quebec province reaching northwest areas late. Skies will
remain mostly sunny Downeast Monday afternoon. Temperatures will
be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Sunday.
Above normal level temperatures are expected Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The remnants of showers/thunderstorms could cross northern areas
Monday night with a cold front approaching northern areas late.
The front should stall in the vicinity of northern Maine Tuesday
though the exact location where this occurs is still uncertain.
Low pressure tracking northeast from the Great Lakes will then
begin to draw the front back north in the form of a warm front
later Tuesday. Expect a chance of showers across the region
Tuesday through Tuesday night, with the slight chance of an
afternoon thunderstorm across northern areas. The low will
track northwest of the region Wednesday, though the exact track
is still uncertain. The low will draw a cold front across the
forecast area with a chance of showers/thunderstorms in advance
of the front. An upper level trof approaches from the west later
Thursday, with a disturbance possibly lifting across the region
in advance of the trof. Generally expect partly cloudy skies
Thursday, though an isolated shower is also possible. The upper
trof crosses the region Friday with partly cloudy skies. Could
also have a chance of mostly afternoon showers across northern
areas with a slight chance Downeast. Above normal level
temperatures are expected Tuesday. Near normal level
temperatures are expected Wednesday/Thursday. Near normal, to
slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Friday

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions across the area are expected to lower
to MVFR then IFR this evening in lower clouds then improve to
MVFR Saturday afternoon. Fog along the coast may keep conditions
IFR in coastal areas through midday Saturday.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across the region
Saturday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across
northern areas Sunday, with VFR conditions Downeast. VFR
conditions are expected across the region Sunday night into
Monday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across northern areas
Monday night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected across northern
areas Tuesday with occasional MVFR conditions Downeast. Variable
conditions are then expected across the region with showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up for southeast winds tonight ahead of
a coastal low becoming southwest on Saturday. Fog across the
waters may be dense tonight and Saturday limiting visibilities.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level seas are expected
Saturday night into Sunday. Conditions are expected to be below
small craft advisory levels Sunday night/Monday. Visibilities
will be reduced in fog Saturday night along with the slight
chance of showers.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norton
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Norton/Norcross
Marine...Norton/Norcross



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