Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 210408
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1108 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region overnight. A warm front
will lift across the area Tuesday morning then a cold front
will cross the region Wednesday. High pressure will build over
the area Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Update...
High pressure will cross the region overnight. At the same time,
low pressure north of the Great Lakes will draw a warm front
northward across Quebec province. Generally expect partly cloudy
skies across northern areas overnight, with mostly clear/partly
cloudy skies across the remainder of the region. Low
temperatures will generally range from around 5 to 10 north, to
the mid to upper teens interior Downeast with upper teens to
around 20 along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to
adjust for current conditions along with overnight cloud cover
and to lower low temperatures in many areas.

Previous Discussion...
The return flow behind the high, and ahead of low pressure
north of the Great Lakes, will lift a warm front across the area
Tuesday morning. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky to the
north and partial cloudiness Downeast. Precipitation is not
expected with the front. Clouds will lift north Tuesday
afternoon and Downeast will become mostly sunny with partial
sunshine over the north. A southerly flow Tuesday afternoon will
lift milder air north across the area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Round of rain coming Wednesday and then turning colder again.

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday night ahead of a apchg
cold front. Temps will drop off some during the evening and then
level off by midnight as the clouds thicken. The 12z suite of
the guidance including the NAM/GFS and Canadian GEM slow the
arrival of precip down. This seems reasonable as sounding data
showed llvls staying dry through much of the night. 925 mb
temps are shown to rise well into the 40s by Wednesday morning
alleviating any threat for frozen/freezing precip. There could
be a brief period of snow mainly across the far n and
w(near the border) before the warm air takes over. Decided to go
w/rain instead of showers as the latest set of guidance
including the ECMWF and Canadian show a weak wave of low pres
out ahead of the front bringing a good slug of rain to the
downeast region into midday Wednesday. Expecting up to 0.50
inches across the downeast coast w/lesser amounts as one heads
north and west. Temps Wednesday will be in the 40s say from
Caribou on south while the far n and w, will be in the upper
30s.

Colder air is expected to move in by late afternoon w/any
leftover rain going to snow before ending. No accumulation
expected. Much colder Wednesday night w/winds dropping off and
skies clearing. This will allow temps to drop back into the
teens and 20s. Sunshine expected for Thursday as high pres
noses in from the sw w/daytime temps near seasonal norms.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another cold front expected for Friday w/the potential for snow
showers/possible squalls.

A cold night Thursday night w/clouds on the increase ahead of
the apchg front. Once again, temps will be down in the teens and
20s. The front is forecast to quickly move across the region on
Friday w/a round of snow showers and possibly a snow squall.
Most of the activity will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA.
Any accumulations will be minor w/an inch or less at best. NW
winds will increase behind the front later Friday into Friday
night w/colder air moving into the region and along w/clearing
skies. Overnight lows Friday night in the mid/upper teens for
the n and w as lower to mid 20s look to be about right for
central and downeast areas.

A brief break early Saturday and then yet another frontal system
to affect the region later Saturday into Saturday night w/warmer
air moving in. Temps on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper
30s and 40s w/the precip mainly in liquid form. Temps might
need to be adjusted upward if the trend continues for 925mbs
temps to 5-7C by late Saturday as shown by the 12z ECMWF.
Decided on showers for this evening giving the low confidence
w/the possibility of a low forming on the front. The ECMWF and
Some of its ensemble members show this to be so, but the other
operational guidance is weaker w/the low not phasing and staying
well to the east. Colder for Sunday w/snow showers in the
forecast and colder again.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR ceilings are possible across the
north and mountains into the early morning hours. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through
Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: VFR early Tuesday night w/conditions going down to
MVFR and IFR by early Wednesday especially w/the cigs. Mainly
MVFR for Wednesday w/the cold front moving through the region.
There could be a period of IFR especially across KBGR and KBHB
w/a brief period of heavier rainfall. VFR Wednesday night into
Thursday. Conditions look like they could deteriorate down to
MVFR and perhaps IFR once again for Friday w/another frontal
system.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the
waters through 4 AM. Southerly winds will increase during the
midday and afternoon Tuesday and a SCA will likely be needed
again.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions for Tuesday night w/gusts to 25 kts.
Seas will stay up between 4 and 6 ft. A brief break in things
early Wednesday but then conditions are expected to come back up
later Wednesday into Wednesday night w/sw winds going wnw and
gusts hitting 25+ kts. Seas are expected to around 5 ft or so
mainly across the outer zones. Thursday looks to be a bit
quieter and high pres noses in from the sw. Winds are expected
to drop off to 10-15 kts w/seas backing off to 3-4 ft. Possible
SCA mainly for the outer zones come Friday w/passage of yet
another front. Kept conditions borderline attm w/winds reaching
20 kts and seas apchg 5-6 ft.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Norcross/Hewitt
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer/Hewitt



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