Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 130554
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS
THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AND CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH HAS ALLOWED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...HAVE HAD TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE WITH A TROF EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE COAST OF HANCOCK
COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE REMNANTS
OF THE APPROACHING LOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROF ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS SNOW ALONG THE
TROF OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST OF HANCOCK COUNTY
WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LESSER SNOWS
WILL OCCUR FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE TROF. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES OF SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
AROUND ZERO INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A NORLUN EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING, THEN GIVE WAY TO A SECONDARY LOW WELL OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO
DEVELOP AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT
THIS COULD BE A VERY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
WITH NORLUN TROUGHS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SOME AREAS WILL
SEE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THIS BAND OF SNOW FROM
ROUGHLY BANGOR SOUTH AND WEST, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER
PENOBSCOT BAY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS,
AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE NUMBERS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS ONE HEADS
NORTH AND EAST WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY AND
LOCATIONS SUCH AS HOWLAND SEEING ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
AT BEST. HAVE GONE AHEAD AN UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO
WARNINGS FOR THE BANGOR AREA DOWN TO THE COAST, BUT JUST A SLIGHT
SHIFT OF THE BAND OF SNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER COULD MAKE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SNOW AMOUNTS.

AWAY FROM THE SNOW BAND, IT`LL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH JUST SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE COAST. MUCH OF THE
REGION AWAY FROM OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS WILL ONLY GET A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW, WITH FAR NORTHEASTERN MAINE LUCKY TO GET ANY
ACCUMULATION AT ALL.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE BANGOR/MT
DESERT AREAS SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO THE NORLUN TROUGH SETUP
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
END BY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPS AND BRISK
WINDS WILL ALSO COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES
ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES WHERE
WIND CHILL READINGS MAY REACH 40 BELOW ZERO. DRY CONDITIONS AND
MODERATING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGIONS WEATHER.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT LOW PRESS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AM AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC MOVES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIP MAY START AS SNOW FOR
ALL AREAS, BUT LOOKS TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS S-SE
WINDS DRAW 35-40F AIR ONSHORE. JUST HOW LONG THE PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL LAST DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 12Z GFS
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE CMC TO THE EAST AND THE ECMWF TO
THE WEST.

THE FCST LEANS IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF AND GFS, WHICH BOTH HAVE A
SHORTWAVE THAT ALLOWS THE SFC LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE A FURTHER
WEST TRACK, THOUGH THEY STILL DISAGREE SOME ON THE EXACT TRACK.
REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS, WHICH CAN BE REFINED GOING FORWARD, IT
SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH PSBL GALE WINDS AND
VERY HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE. THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN ON WED, BUT LT
SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THU AS THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF SWINGS
ACROSS THE CWA. THU NIGHT INTO FRI LOOKS CLEAR WITH HIGH PRES AND
RIDGING, THOUGH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY APPROACH LATER FRI OR SAT.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DOWNEAST...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DOWNEAST SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BANGOR/BAR HARBOR AREA SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30
KTS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR COASTAL MARINE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TO SCA
CRITERIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR MARINE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-015>017-031-032.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ015-016-029.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
     EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/MCW
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/MCW/BERDES
MARINE...HASTINGS/NORCROSS/MCW/BERDES


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