Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211604
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1104 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably warm air mass will be in place across northern
and eastern Maine today ahead of a cold front which will cross
the area later today into this evening. High pressure will build
into the area from the west Thursday and will crest over Maine
Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM update...Fog is holding its ground Downeast and had to
extend the dense fog advisory until noon. Also had to lower
temps due to fog limiting sunshine. Some holes are beginning to
erode in the fog so fog should begin to clear within the next
hour.

Previous discussion...
A 596 dam ridge at 500H off the South Carolina coast has record high
500H heights for this time of year.  Southwest flow aloft around the
high will transport a very warm air mass into northern and eastern
Maine today ahead of a cold front.  The 925H temperatures are
expected to peak out +14-18C in the Bangor Region by midday today.
Low clouds and fog early in the day will give way to thinning clouds
and temperatures certainly have the potential to soar well into the
60s across interior Downeast with low 50s north to Caribou.  The
cold front will not have much moisture to work with so not expecting
more than isolated rain showers. There will still be some
pockets of freezing rain in far northeast Maine early this
morning. The cold front will push offshore by this evening and
a much colder air mass filters into the area with lows around
10 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the 20s Downeast. As the
temperatures drop below freezing any standing water will freeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in for Thursday and Thursday night with
dry weather. Looks like good radiational cooling conditions
setting up for Thursday night with the center of the high
building right across the cwa, mainly clear skies and light
winds. The colder valleys of northern Maine should see
temperatures Thursday night falling well below zero. Friday
starts with plenty of sunshine as the high moves east but clouds
increase by afternoon with some light overunning snow expected
to develop from west to east late in the day. High temperatures
Friday afternoon will recover to near seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Light overunning precipitation will continue into Friday evening
before diminishing after midnight. Precipitation will be mainly
in the form of light snow but some freeing rain is possible
across down east areas before precipitation ends later Friday
night. High pressure builds back in for Saturday. Clouds start
to increase later Saturday night and Sunday. The next shot of
snow will come later Sunday and Sunday night ahead of the next
system.  Drier weather will return for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VLIFR to IFR in low clouds and dense fog early this
morning will give way to VFR conditons Downeast by late morning
and at the northern terminals by evening. VFR expected tonight.
Low level wind shear is expected at the northern terminals from
KPQI north to KFVE from late this morning into this afternoon
with a wsw wind of 35-40 knots at 2k ft agl.

SHORT TERM: VFR Thursday and Thursday night. VFR through early
afternoon Friday will give way to developing light snow and IFR
conditions. Snow will end early Saturday giving way to VFR. IFR
will once again be possible by Sunday in developing snow.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect today and tonight for
the coastal waters and intra-coastal waters.

SHORT TERM: No headlines expected on the waters
Thursday through Friday. Next chance for SCA conditions looks to
be

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warm weather today with highs in the 50s and 60s. This will
lead to rapid snow melt. A cold front will quickly sweep across
the region later today and this evening sending temperatures
back below freezing. No issues other than some ponding of water
are expected across the northern portion of the area, but a
modest rise in rivers is expected across southern portions of
the area, especially across the lower Penobscot basin where some
ice movement is possible. Flooding is not expected at this
time, but any time ice moves there is the potential that a
localized ice jam could form. Users with interests on area
rivers across the lower Penobscot watershed should keep a close
watch on the river through tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record strong 500H ridge for February off the southeast U.S.
coast will send a very warm air mass into northern and eastern
Maine today. The all-time record high for February at Bangor is
60F, which was established on February 21, 1937. We are
currently forecasting a high of 65F, so the all-time record high
is in jeopardy. Here are some other high temperature records
that are in jeopardy for for 2/21 along with the forecast high
in parenthesis:

Houlton: 50F, 1953 (57F)
Caribou: 52F, 1994 (50F)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for MEZ010-011-015>017-
     029>032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/MCB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...CB/Duda
Marine...CB/Duda
Hydrology...
Climate...CB



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