Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 201346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
946 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND THEN STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST
COAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
UPDATE. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO
MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A TRANQUIL FORECAST FOR THIS TERM.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC SLIDING SE. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CWA TODAY AND THEN SLIDE E TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS EASTER SUNDAY AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE OR SSE WIND IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP THE DOWNEAST AND IN PARTICULAR
BANGOR AND THE COAST COOLER DUE TO THE COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE SKY PERCENTAGES
OVERNIGHT TO SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL CAP OVERNIGHT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MDL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION TO SET BY THE EVENING AND W/CLEAR
SKIES TO START, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING
OFF LATER ON. LOW LYING AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS COULD SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND TRIED TO SHOW THIS
IN THE LATEST FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S...UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH...AND LOWER 50S ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AS MONDAY COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME SHOWERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DOWNEAST.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY PERSIST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL RETURN THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE WELL
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT W/A SSE
WIND SETTING UP AS THE HIGH PASSES TO THE E. WINDS 10-15 KTS AT
BEST W/SEAS 2-3 FT.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THINGS HAVE REALLY SETTLED DOWN SINCE LAST EVENING AS THE ICE JAM
ON THE ST. JOHN HAD BROKEN UP SOME AND MOVED DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. THE GAGE ON THE ST. JOHN RIVER AT GRAND FALLS WAS
FALLING W/REPORTS OF ICE FLOWING THROUGH IT. NO OTHER REPORTS
ATTM. WE SHOULD HAVE SOMETHING MORE LATER THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVELS KEEP DROPPING INCLUDING THE MATTAWAMKEAG
RIVER. NOTHING SERIOUS BEING REPORTED ON THE MATTAWAMKEAG, JUST
SOME LOW LANDS BEING INUNDATED WITH WATER. THE TREND IS FOR ALL
RIVERS TO KEEP RECEDING RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...







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