Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281927
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BNDRY MVS THRU MOST OF CWA THIS EVNG WITH DRY AIR RAPIDLY
MVG IN BHND. MAY SEE JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS IN
DOWNEAST FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVNG BFR ATMOS STABILIZES ONCE AGAIN.
COASTAL ZONES WL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
TONIGHT AS LOW-LVLS ARE STABLE PER POPUP SKEW-T AND SPC`S MESO PAGE.
EXPECT AS AREA OF CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH IT WL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH
ALL TOGETHER.

FOR THE OVRNGT SRLY WINDS WL BRING ANOTHER MARINE LYR INTO COASTAL
AREAS AFT MIDNIGHT. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WSW WINDS WL NOT
MIX OUT FOG LYR UNTIL AFT 12Z THO ABOUT AN EQUAL MIX BRINGS BNDRY
CLR THRU BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW, HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG THRU 12Z
WED AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOO QUICK TO MV BNDRY THRU.

DRY AIR FILTERS IN FM THE NORTH IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH DWPTS DROPPING
INTO THE L50S. THIS WL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS FM THE M50S ACRS THE CROWN
AND POSSIBLY EVEN COLDER IN THE NORTH WOODS, TO ARND 60 IN DOWNEAST.

FRONTAL BNDRY LOOKS TO STALL OUT DRG ITS TREK SOUTH AND WL LKLY
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DRG THE DAY WED. HWVR IT WL LKLY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS ANOTHER WV DROPS THRU ON NW
FLOW. SKIES WL BE MSUNNY ACRS NORTH AND EAST ZONES RMVD FM THE WV
ROTATING ITS WAY THRU SWRN MAINE. THIS WL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ON WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH
MEANS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME FOR HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER WESTERN AREAS,
WITH CAPES PROGGED TO REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG. AS USUAL, THE NAM IS
WELL OVERDONE WITH ITS 1800+ J/KG SBCAPE. SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP THE
LOWER LEVELS MORE STABLE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE, SO HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF THUNDER TO CHANCE ONLY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE INSTABILITY, WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO HAVE MID-LEVEL LIS IN THE 6-7 C/KM RANGE ADDING TO THE
FORCING. GIVEN SHEAR AROUND 30 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL BOTH POSSIBLE. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING PWATS APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES, SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND A MUGGY 80 DEGREES,
WITH THE COAST STAYING IN THE 70S.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE BY AROUND DAYBREAK. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SEE ON THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER RESTRICTED TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH STRONG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BRING A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR CWA. EACH WAVE WILL TAP WARM AND MOIST AIR
ACROSS THE FCST AREA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYS 4 THRU 7 PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING BGR THIS AFTERNOON AND BRINGING
MVFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 20Z TODAY. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH
EXPECT A QUICK RETURN TO VFR AT TERMINAL. BHB WILL START OFF AT
VFR THEN DIMINISH TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 00Z THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE 03Z-12Z IN
FOG, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOCALIZED CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, AND THEN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS



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