Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 231727
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TODAY BUT CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE VERY MOIST AIR BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE WHILE PART TWO OF THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL FEATURE
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. COLD AIR ALOFT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROVIDE A RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
GRIDS FOR THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 12Z
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF WITH A BIT LESS QPF ALONG THE
DOWN EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THE
DEFORMATION BAND APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP A BIT FURTHER EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NET RESULT IS A REDUCTION OF A TENTH OR
TWO ON AN INCH OF QPF WITH THIS UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...MOIST AND RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST AFTER THE FOG/LOW
CLOUDS LIFT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AS LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

TOOK YET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE SNOW SITUATION FOR TONIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
CARIBOU TOWARDS GREENVILLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN. AREAS ABOVE 1000 FT
ELEVATION COULD SEE ONE TO THREE INCHES WHILE LOWER TERRAIN WEST
OF THAT LINE MAY JUST SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
THERE IS NOT ENOUGH QPF TONIGHT IN THIS COLDER NW PART OF THE
STATE TO JUSTIFY HIGHER ACCUMULATION FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STEADIER RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
AS WE GO INTO LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A TROF EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE COULD EVEN BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF CARIBOU BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF XTNDG FROM HUDSON BAY SEWRD TO
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRES S OF NS WILL SUPPORT A DEEP SFC LOW S OF NS
AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM... THIS SFC
LOW...CAPTURED BY THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWRD
ON THU AND WILL CONT TO TRANSPORT VERY MOIST AIR NWWRD BACK ACROSS
OUR AREA THRU THE DAY THU W/ HIGHEST POPS AND QPF STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN AREAS. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. CHILLY
TEMPS WILL PERSIST W/ HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 40S N
AND NW AND THE UPPER 40S S. MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACROSS
THE HYR ELEVS OF THE N AND NW THU AM...

OTHERWISE...APPEARS THIS LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
PICTURE THU NGT AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD EWRD INTO THE AREA. W/ ALL THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FROM THE
PRECEDING DAYS...LOWER-LEVELS WILL LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO DRY OUT SO
EXPECT SOME SC CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA THRU
THU NGT AND PSBLY EVEN INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO
SEASONAL NORMS THU NGT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BE
REALIZED ON FRI...MAY JUST REACH CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SHIFTS E OF THE AREA FRI NGT W/ THE USUAL MODEL
DIFFS PREVALENT IN THE LONG TERM... NXT SYSTEM IN THIS COOL AND
UNSETTLED PROGRESSIVE PTRN ARRIVES ON SAT W/ THE GFS MUCH FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN THE LATEST ECMWF & CAN GEM WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND LAST SEVERAL RUNS. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION...APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO CUTOFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS MAKING IT SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THRU ERLY NXT WEEK. USED THE SUPERBLEND CONSENSUS WHICH
YIELDS CHC POPS SAT AFTN THRU MON W/ CONTD SLGT CHC POPS TUE. A
BROAD NRLY CIRC BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUN THRU TUE SUGGESTS TEMPS
REMAINING BLO SEASONAL NORMS...
&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS THE RAIN
DIMINISHES. A PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
WHAT DRIER AIR ALLOWS THE LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT A BIT. CEILINGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

SHORT TERM: CONTD MVFR/IFR CONDS THU AS MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED W/
DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES SE OF THE AREA IS PULLED UP ACROSS THE
AREA... HIGH PRES WILL FINALLY BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE REGION THU
NGT INTO FRI AND REMAIN THRU FRI NGT. LOWER-LEVELS MAY BE SLOW TO
DRIVE HOWEVER SO WHILE VFR CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
TAF SITES...NRN TAF SITES MAY HOLD ONTO MVFR/LOW VFR THRU THU NGT
W/ VFR RETURNING BY FRI AM. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST AT ALL
TAF SITES THRU FRI NGT AND INTO SAT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX TO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A DEEP SLOW-MOVG LOW PRES JUST ESE OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
STRONG SCA CONDS CONTG THU INTO THU NGT W/ A BRIEF PD OF LOW END
GLW CONDS PSBL LATE THU AM INTO THU AFTN...
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW






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