Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 290549
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1149 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED AND AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS/STORMS THE REST OF THE THIS
EVENING. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT MOST OF THESE WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONVECTION MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE SRN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE ISOLATED MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. SATELLITE
SHOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WY WITH A LOBE OF VORT APPARENTLY ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW OVER SW WY. THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD OPEN THIS EVENING AND DRIFT EAST THUS EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTORMS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...HELPED SOME BY THE VORT LOBE. MEANWHILE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS MONTANA OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW WEAK STORMS POSSIBLE IN MODEST
INSTABILITY.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SO MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS PROGGING A LONG
WAVE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE AND GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
OVER COLORADO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FOR ISOLATED HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S. FOR THE LATTER
DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION`S WEATHER
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE. AFTER A
WARM DAY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER SUNRISE. WILL SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALONG WITH A RESURGENCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL
STEADILY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE LARAMIE RIVER NEAR FORT LARAMIE
WITH BANKFULL CONDITIONS AT LARAMIE. RIVER LEVELS WILL BE STEADY
FURTHER UPSTREAM...BUT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FURTHER DOWNSTREAM NEAR
FORT LARAMIE AS WATER RELEASED FROM NEARBY RESERVOIRS HAVE BEEN
REDUCED.

ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...HENRY NE IS CRESTING JUST ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A GRADUAL FALL TO BELOW
BANKFULL LATE SATURDAY. AT MITCHELL NE...MODERATE FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE FALLING TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTORMS HAVE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. RUNOFF FROM THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD
PRODUCE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE
HYDROLOGY...MAJ/TJT


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