Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271033
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
433 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect warm and breezy conditions today across southern New Mexico
and Far West Texas. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and
lower 80s across the lowlands. A strong upper low will bring gusty
winds and blowing dust to the region on Tuesday, along with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the higher
elevations, especially the Gila. Another strong storm system looks
likely on Friday and Saturday, with more wind and dust.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing southwesterly flow will allow temperatures to climb up
another 3-5 degrees from Sunday`s highs. Upper 70s to lower 80s
will be common across the lowland deserts. Increasing winds aloft
and deep mixing will result in breezy conditions by the afternoon
across most of the area.

An upper level disturbance currently over the Northern
California/Nevada border and a second trough moving into the
Pacific Northwest will merge over the Four Corners region with a
closed 500mb low developing late tonight. This system will slowly
move eastward over northern New Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday.

Lead shortwave trough associated with this system will move across
southern NM early Tuesday morning, with the main trough and vort
max following behind it Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Although moisture-starved, some limited moisture will move into
the area with this system, with light showers expected to develop
over the Gila Region Tuesday morning, spreading into the
Sacramento mountains by early afternoon. A few very light showers
may work into the lowlands as well. Snow levels may briefly work
down to around 6-7K feet early Tuesday, but otherwise look to
remain around 8,000 feet through the day. Expected QPF amounts and
scattered nature of precip will limit snowfall potential, with
maybe an inch or so above 8000 feet in the Gila, and a dusting in
the Sacramento Mountains.

Windy conditions will develop across the lowlands, especially east
of a TCS-DMN line where a wind advisory and blowing dust advisory
may become necessary for Tuesday afternoon. A few gusts along
east-facing slopes could reach around 55 mph.

Temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will drop to near normal
(low-mid 70s in the lowlands), but expect upper-70s/lower-80s to
return for Thursday.

Another vigorous Pacific system will affect the area Fri-Sun with
strong winds likely again Friday afternoon. Models are still all
over the map with this system. GFS starts out moisture-starved
but tries to stall the system out on Sunday when it begins to draw
in moisture from the east. GFS track has slowly trended further
north, closer to the ECMWF and a few GFS Ensemble solutions. It
would seem more likely that this will become similar to Tuesday`s
system with lowland wind/dust and relatively light mountain
precip.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR Conditions today with increasing mid-high clouds in the
afternoon. Breezy WSW winds will develop in the afternoon,
generally 15-20 knots with a few gusts 25 to 30 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong upper level low will move across northern New Mexico
Tuesday, bringing light precipitation (0.10-0.25 inches) to the
Gila, and strong west-southwest winds to much of the lowlands. The
limited amount of moisture and cooler temperatures will help
boost RH values, especially in SW New Mexico, but lower-elevation
areas further east (especially Far West Texas) could be close to
Red Flag criteria Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be near-
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but will climb back to around 5
degrees above normal by Thursday.

Another strong system will bring increasing winds to the area
Friday and into the weekend, with another chance at light
precipitation in the mountains and possible critical fire weather
conditions for the lowlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 81  57  72  51 /   0   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca           80  53  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              76  48  67  43 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo              75  51  67  44 /   0   0  30  30
Cloudcroft              52  33  39  28 /   0   0  40  30
Truth or Consequences   75  48  63  44 /   0   0  20  20
Silver City             68  41  56  35 /   0   0  50  10
Deming                  77  47  64  42 /   0   0  10   0
Lordsburg               75  43  64  38 /   0   0  30  10
West El Paso Metro      79  56  70  50 /   0   0  10  10
Dell City               80  50  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            84  54  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              73  51  65  45 /   0   0  10   0
Fabens                  81  55  73  48 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa            79  52  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ          77  50  67  48 /   0   0  20  20
Jornada Range           76  46  66  40 /   0   0  20  20
Hatch                   77  47  64  42 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                79  50  67  46 /   0   0  10   0
Orogrande               77  51  68  46 /   0   0  20  20
Mayhill                 67  42  55  36 /   0   0  30  20
Mescalero               64  39  52  34 /   0   0  40  30
Timberon                61  39  51  33 /   0   0  30  30
Winston                 68  38  55  33 /   0  10  50  30
Hillsboro               74  43  61  39 /   0   0  20  20
Spaceport               74  46  63  41 /   0   0  20  10
Lake Roberts            66  33  55  28 /   0  10  60  20
Hurley                  71  40  58  34 /   0   0  30  10
Cliff                   73  41  62  31 /   0  10  60  20
Mule Creek              68  38  59  29 /   0  10  60  30
Faywood                 71  42  59  40 /   0   0  20  20
Animas                  77  43  65  39 /   0   0  20   0
Hachita                 77  44  65  39 /   0   0  10   0
Antelope Wells          77  44  65  39 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale              69  41  60  37 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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