Area Forecast Discussion
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373
FXUS64 KEPZ 091120
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR SUNNY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN FIVE TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING IN TO TAKE CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER AND IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. WITH
THE RIDGE IN PLACE WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING
OUR WEATHER QUIET AND DRY FOR THE SHORT AND MIDDLE PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING OUR SUNNY...WARM AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
GFS HAD A LOW SLIPPING UNDER THE RIDGE BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WELL THE GFS HAS
CHANGED IT`S TUNE AND NOW AGREES MORE WITH THE ECMWF. SO WE CAN
EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 09/12Z-10/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 (48,72,96) HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL MEAN THAT WE WILL SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. WE WILL BE DRY THOUGH...MIN RH`S WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOWER 20`S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 64  35  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           62  31  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              62  29  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              62  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              46  23  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  30  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             60  29  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  63  28  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               64  27  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      64  37  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               63  28  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            65  32  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  65  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            63  30  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  34  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           63  25  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   64  27  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                63  30  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               63  35  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 57  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               54  24  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                53  29  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 58  27  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               62  27  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               63  27  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            60  20  63  24 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  60  27  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   65  20  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              64  20  67  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  27  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 64  26  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          63  26  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              63  28  68  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15



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