Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191115
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
415 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather to
southern New Mexico and west Texas today. An upper level
disturbance will produce breezy to windy and cooler weather on
Friday with scattered lowland rain showers and chances for high
mountain snows. A deeper low pressure system will result in very
windy cool and wet weather Friday night and Saturday with
widespread rain showers across the lower elevations with possible
heavy snow over the mountains. High pressure will bring cool dry
weather on Sunday before another disturbance causes possible
breezy to windy conditions along with a few lowland rain and
mountain snow showers later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active unsettled zonal progressive weather pattern will affect
the southwestern United States well into next week. For today
short wave ridge aloft will move across New Mexico/west Texas
this morning with zonal flow ahead of next disturbance established
by late afternoon. Deep westerly flow will bring seasonably warm
mostly dry weather today with lee cyclone formation over the
Texas panhandle supporting breezy to marginally windy conditions
this afternoon/evening.

Upper short wave will then move across the southern Rockies
tonight and Friday strengthening gradients aloft while causing lee
cyclone to further deepen. Consequently windy conditions are
forecasted for Friday most areas with wind speeds near advisory
levels tomorrow afternoon and evening most locations. Despite
westerly/continental trajectories sufficient Pacific moisture
will also flow into the area to bring mainly scattered lowland
rain showers and high mountain snows on Friday.

Stronger deeper trough aloft moves across the Great Basin and
southern Rockies tonight and Saturday with another episode of lee
cyclogenesis over the Texas panhandle. Thus wind speeds further
increase with expected 30 to 40 kt flow at 850 mph and 50 to 60 kt
winds at 700 mb Saturday afternoon. So expect wind advisories
and/or warnings will be required for the entire CWA Saturday. In
addition rather abundant Pacific moisture will continue flowing
into the area while upper flow of 150 kt at base of trough will
induce strong differential pva and upward motion. Thus
precipitation becomes widespread Friday night through early
Saturday afternoon. Cool air advection plus dynamic cooling will
lower snow levels to around 6000 feet by late Saturday morning
with snow amounts expected around 6 to 12 inches high mountains.

Subsiding northwest flow behind the trough will result in cool dry
weather Sunday. However by Monday yet another upper wave moves
into Arizona with system advancing across the CWA Monday night and
Tuesday. Disturbance may produce breezy to windy conditions with
chances for lowland rains/mountain snows. Slower moving positively
tilted trough expected to bring cooler below normal temperatures
with a few lowland rain/mountain showers later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/12z-20/12z.
VFR conditions through 00z with areas of ceilings above 10,000
feet agl. Surface winds gusting around 30 kt this afternoon and
early this evening. After 00z a few areas of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in rain and mountain snow showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry weather to
southern New Mexico and west Texas today. An upper level
disturbance will produce breezy to windy and cooler weather on
Friday with scattered lowland rain showers and chances for high
mountain snows. A deeper low pressure system will result in very
windy cool and wet weather Friday night and Saturday with
widespread rain showers across the lower elevations with possible
heavy snow over the mountains. High pressure will bring cool dry
weather on Sunday before another disturbance causes possible
breezy to windy conditions along with a few lowland rain and
mountain snow showers later next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 60  41  55  44 /   0   0  30  70
Sierra Blanca           59  38  55  40 /   0   0  20  50
Las Cruces              57  38  52  40 /   0   0  30  80
Alamogordo              56  38  52  39 /   0   0  20  70
Cloudcroft              41  26  33  26 /   0  20  40  70
Truth or Consequences   56  35  49  37 /   0  10  30  80
Silver City             49  33  41  34 /  10  40  60  90
Deming                  57  36  50  39 /   0   0  40  80
Lordsburg               56  36  50  38 /   0  20  50  90
West El Paso Metro      59  42  54  45 /   0   0  30  70
Dell City               61  36  56  38 /   0   0  20  50
Fort Hancock            62  38  59  42 /   0   0  20  60
Loma Linda              54  38  49  40 /   0   0  20  70
Fabens                  61  38  55  41 /   0   0  30  70
Santa Teresa            59  39  53  42 /   0   0  30  70
White Sands HQ          59  41  52  43 /   0   0  30  80
Jornada Range           58  35  51  37 /   0   0  30  80
Hatch                   58  38  51  38 /   0   0  30  80
Columbus                59  39  52  41 /   0   0  40  80
Orogrande               58  39  53  42 /   0   0  20  70
Mayhill                 52  32  45  32 /   0  20  40  70
Mescalero               48  31  42  31 /   0  20  40  70
Timberon                48  30  41  30 /   0  20  40  70
Winston                 51  28  42  29 /   0  20  30  90
Hillsboro               54  34  47  35 /   0  20  30  80
Spaceport               57  35  50  36 /   0   0  30  80
Lake Roberts            48  27  41  29 /  10  50  60  90
Hurley                  52  33  45  34 /  10  20  60  90
Cliff                   54  35  48  32 /  20  40  60  90
Mule Creek              52  33  44  30 /  20  50  60  90
Faywood                 53  34  46  35 /   0  20  50  80
Animas                  59  35  52  38 /   0  20  60  90
Hachita                 58  35  51  38 /   0  10  50  80
Antelope Wells          58  36  51  39 /   0  20  60  90
Cloverdale              54  36  46  38 /   0  20  60  90

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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