Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172104
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
204 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds will bring warmer dry weather across southern New
Mexico Thursday and Friday. A strong low pressure system with a
cold front will then move across the southern Rocky Mountains this
weekend. The storm will cause windy conditions with lowland rain
showers and mountain snows Saturday and Saturday night followed
by cooler dry weather Sunday and Monday. Warmer near normal
temperatures are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper wave will move to the southeast into southern New mexico
and west Texas this afternoon and early this evening and will
bring extensive mid and high clouds to the region. However lower
levels will remain too dry for any threat of precip. Meanwhile
surface winds from the north/northeast are sustaining transport
of cold Arctic air with this afternoon`s temperatures again around
15 to 20 degrees below normal most locations.

Short wave ridge aloft will move across the region over a weak
westerly surface flow on Thursday with some increase of west to
southwest winds on Friday ahead of next upper trough. This
scenario will sustain low level warm air advection and cause
temperatures to warm to near normal Thursday and around 5 degrees
above normal Friday.

Deep upper trough will move eastward into Arizona Saturday
afternoon before advancing across New Mexico and west Texas
Saturday night and Sunday morning. Strong downslope winds and then
PVA ahead of system will induce pronounced lee cyclogenesis over
eastern Colorado with an associated trailing surface trough
extending through eastern New Mexico. Low and mid level gradient
thus strengthen with dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to
around 600 mb by late Saturday afternoon. This will allow
stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface resulting in windy
conditions Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At moment
expect wind speeds near the advisory category most locations.

In addition to the winds the system will produce deep upward
morion via differential PVA aloft and low level convergence along
an attendant Pacific cold front. Moisture amounts will be marginal
but the deep lift should induce isolated to scattered lowland
rains and high mountain snows spreading west to east late Friday
night and Saturday. Combination of low level cold air advection
behind the front and dynamic cooling aloft will lower snow levels
Saturday night with light snow possible even across much of the
lower elevations before sunrise. At this time expect around 2 to 4
inch accumulations above 7000 feet.

Passage of front and trough will bring a dry subsiding north to
northwest flow and cool air advection resulting in cooler dry
weather Sunday and Monday with afternoon temperatures around 5
degrees below normal. A return to zonal flow aloft will support
more dry weather with temperatures warming to near normal Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites.  Mainly mid and high
clouds resulting from a short wave trough over Central and Southern
New Mexico moving southeast with clearing aft 12z.  Winds to
continue east to southeast under 10kts and switch to the SSW aft
18Z. In general...skies SCT-BKN150-170 BKN-OVC220-250 becoming  FEW-
SCT aft 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much cooler, drier, and stable air will remain across the Fire Zones
through Wednesday. Westerly winds will return on Thursday bringing
in warmer air from the southwest. A weak upper disturbance will drop
across Southwestern New Mexico today. There is a slight chance for
light snow showers over the Gila, and a few lowland sprinkles. The
next storm system is forecast to arrive late Saturday. Saturday
should become windy with west and southwest winds in the 20 to 30
mph range. This system which will give our region a better chance at
mountain snow and lowland rain Saturday and Saturday night. The
storm passes quickly with a Pacific front moving in to cool the
region back to near normal on Sunday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 23  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           21  54  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              21  55  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              20  54  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              19  45  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   25  56  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             25  55  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  22  57  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               24  57  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      25  54  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               18  55  24  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            22  58  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              23  51  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  21  56  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            21  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          23  55  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           18  55  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   21  57  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                24  56  27  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               22  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 20  53  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               19  50  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                20  48  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 20  56  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               23  57  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               20  55  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            18  56  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  22  55  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   20  59  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              27  57  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 24  56  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  24  59  27  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 23  58  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          24  58  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              28  58  31  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/20 Novlan



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