Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202204
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
304 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TAKE
ANOTHER DIVE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. WARMER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWING PHASED PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER NM AND WEST TEXAS...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT BUILDING RAPIDLY OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
FOLLOWING THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT US OUR RECENT PERIOD OF
ACTIVE WEATHER...THE PAIR MARK THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF VERY WEAK
WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE RIDGE. THIS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG JET STREAM OF SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN...WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS
AT 140-150 KTS BASED ON SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DERIVED REPORTS.
JET MAX MOVING ATOP BUILDING RIDGE...WILL HELP ALLOW FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AS A CONSEQUENCE...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY NORTH WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS FALLING ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED MID
EVENING MONDAY. GIVEN IMPROVING CONSENSUS AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS TO DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND NUDGE IT A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ALSO OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY FOR THE SACS. GUIDANCE HAS AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING
ONLY THE HIGH 30S SATURDAY FOR RUIDOSO...SO ANY PCPN SHOULD FALL
AS LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES BELOW 540 DECAMETERS
OVER THE SACS AT THAT TIME...SUGGEST ANY FALLING SNOW WILL REACH
SURROUNDING VALLEY FLOORS.

WAVE QUICKLY MOVES OUT LATER TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGHS
SHOULD END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WE LOOK AT A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WTIH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. AT THAT TIME MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH AT THIS JUNCTURE...THAT FEATURE APPEARS WEAKER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ONE DUE IN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z- 21/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 WITH W TO NW WINDS UNDER 12KTS THRU PD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY A QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEK. A DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING
WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING BY MONDAY. BEHIND THE MONDAY NIGHT
DISTURBANCE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN REBOUND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 33  60  38  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           32  58  35  62  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              30  59  35  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              29  57  34  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              23  42  31  46  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   30  57  36  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             30  54  34  58  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  28  59  33  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  57  33  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      36  59  40  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               28  60  33  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            32  63  36  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  55  38  59  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  30  61  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  59  35  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          34  58  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           23  58  28  63  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   28  59  33  65  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                32  59  37  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               31  58  35  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 29  50  36  55  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               25  48  30  53  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                26  49  32  53  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 27  52  32  56  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               31  56  36  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               25  58  31  64  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            27  53  30  57  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  29  55  33  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   25  58  30  62  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  56  26  59  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 31  55  35  60  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  30  60  35  64  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 26  59  31  63  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          26  61  31  66  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              29  60  34  63  31 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26
TRIPOLI/GRZYWACZ



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