Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082147
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
247 PM MST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Borderland experienced a change of air mass Wednesday night
and Thursday as a Polar cold front moved in from the Great PLains
along with low cloudiness mainly east of the mountains and gusty
brisk easterly winds mainly west of the mountains. Temperatures
dropped some 10 to 15 degrees from Wednesday. The cold air and
some low cloudiness will remain until later Friday morning with
less cloudiness and a little warmer temperatures expected by
Friday afternoon. Drier west flow will develop over the weekend
into most of next week. This air will bring above normal daytime
temperatures back to the Borderland. Another cold front is
forecast to move in from the east next Wednesday bringing another
brief encounter with cooler air.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 21Z the back door cold front has push westward to around the
Continental Divide. The Upper flow continues to remain
hemispheric wide in a 4 to 5 wave pattern with slight negative
tilting over the central U.S with fast moving disturbances in the
strong polar jet stream just to our north WV imagery shows the a
distinct disturbance currently located in the subtropical just
just our south which moved into Central Texas as of 21Z. The back
door brought in some gusty east winds on west slope to around
30-35 mph reported along west slopes of the Franklin and Organ
Mountains. MSAS analysis shows about a 11 mob pressure difference
from east to west across southern New Mexico which will gradually
weaken in time but will still bring some residual low cloudiness
mainly east of the mountains tonight into Friday morning before
veering winds to the south with drier air reducing the
cloudiness.

The remainder of forecast period appear to be mostly uneventful.
Both the GFS and EURO forecast temps approaching 70 deg by
midweek with only the GFS (for now) suggesting another brief
encounter with a backdoor around Wednesday of next week.


&&


.AVIATION...Valid 09/00Z-10/00Z...
Cooler/moister air aloft continues to push into the area, with lower
(MVFR) ceilings having encroached on KTCS and KLRU this afternoon.
These sites may scatter-out before 00z, but with evening cooling,
expect cloudcover to settle back in. Highest confidence in keeping
MVFR ceilings is at KELP, where cloud bases should settle down to
BKN-OVC020-025 during the evening hours. Expect we will see some
clearing by 18z tomorrow at most locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low clouds will be entrenched near and east of the Rio Grande again
tonight, with Mostly Clear skies to the west. Winds will diminish
after dark as the cold front has pushed west of the Arizona border.
This will set up a cold night across the area with higher elevation
locations (including Cloudcroft which is above the clouds currently)
and low-lying cold drainages dropping into the 10s.

For the week ahead, expect slowly moderating temperatures with low
level winds shifting to the West and Southwest over the weekend but
remaining fairly light. Main impact for fire weather will be limited
vent rates Friday due to light winds aloft and shallow mixing. Lower
elevations will see some improvement Saturday, with most areas Fair
or better by Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 28  53  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           25  52  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              25  52  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              23  51  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              13  38  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   26  53  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             23  51  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  24  51  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               19  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      31  53  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               27  50  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            27  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              24  47  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  25  56  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            25  52  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          29  50  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           21  54  21  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   28  53  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                27  52  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               24  51  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 12  48  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               14  47  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                13  42  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 18  53  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               23  55  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               25  52  22  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            14  53  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  21  50  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   17  56  22  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              18  56  19  60 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 25  54  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  21  56  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 20  54  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          21  54  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              25  58  31  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/25 Novlan / Hardiman


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