Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 022208
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
308 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUBTROPICAL FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG EAST SLOPES. MOISTURE AND A PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST MAY CHANGE THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FLOWING UP OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS PLUME ALONG
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING TO THE NORTH HAS MOISTENED UP THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HELPED GENERATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND PART OF TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS FOR
THE LOWLANDS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER A HALF FOR MOST AREAS WITH
MOUNTAINS AND SMALL PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS GETTING BETWEEN A
HALF AND AN INCH OF RAIN.

THE WARM FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE
OCCASIONAL SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE PRECIP
TURNING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW IN THE GILA REGION
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
A PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL HAVE COOLED DOWN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO WITH ADDITIONAL LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED. A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW
LEVELS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD...STRONG EAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BORDER REGION INCLUDING
THE EL PASO METRO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL LOWER TO THE POINT THAT MIXED
PRECIPITATION OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND END ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION DUE TO A BLOCKING HIGH ON
THE WEST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY BUT IT WILL BE DYNAMICALLY WEAK
AND LACKING ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 5-8KFT. TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS ALONG/WEST OF
A TCS-DMN LINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
BLDU POSSIBLE AT DMN. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SW NM
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT APPROACH.
EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES AROUND THE TIME
OF FROPA WHICH WILL BE AROUND 06Z AT DMN AND 12Z FOR ELP. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
OVERALL CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 15Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS GUSTING 25-30 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER AROUND 8
TO 9K FEET. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 48  63  43  59  30 /  50  30   0  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           47  64  42  56  23 /  30  20  10  30  30
LAS CRUCES              42  61  36  58  28 /  50  30   0  20  10
ALAMOGORDO              44  61  38  56  26 /  50  30  10  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              31  43  26  40  15 /  70  60  10  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   43  60  35  55  29 /  40  20   0  10  10
SILVER CITY             35  50  30  50  23 /  70  20  10  20  10
DEMING                  41  62  34  59  30 /  50  20   0  10  10
LORDSBURG               38  58  32  56  30 /  60  20  10  20  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      49  62  44  59  33 /  50  30   0  20  20
DELL CITY               44  65  37  57  24 /  30  20  10  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            49  67  45  61  30 /  40  20  10  30  20
LOMA LINDA              45  57  39  53  26 /  40  30   0  30  20
FABENS                  48  64  42  59  29 /  50  30   0  20  20
SANTA TERESA            46  62  40  59  29 /  50  30   0  20  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          48  61  40  57  29 /  50  30   0  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           41  61  31  58  23 /  50  20   0  20  10
HATCH                   43  62  35  59  28 /  50  20   0  20  10
COLUMBUS                45  62  39  58  32 /  50  30   0  20  10
OROGRANDE               49  63  41  58  28 /  50  30   0  20  10
MAYHILL                 37  51  29  44  15 /  70  30  10  30  30
MESCALERO               34  49  29  45  16 /  70  60  10  30  30
TIMBERON                37  49  30  46  19 /  70  50  10  30  30
WINSTON                 35  51  30  47  23 /  70  20  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               41  55  34  52  27 /  60  20  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               40  62  33  57  25 /  50  20   0  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            34  49  28  48  21 /  80  20  10  20  10
HURLEY                  36  53  30  51  23 /  60  20  10  10  10
CLIFF                   36  57  30  55  25 /  60  20  10  20  10
MULE CREEK              29  52  23  51  19 /  60  20  10  20  10
FAYWOOD                 39  54  33  51  27 /  50  20  10  20  10
ANIMAS                  40  60  35  58  30 /  70  20  10  20  10
HACHITA                 40  61  34  58  29 /  50  20   0  20  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          42  61  36  58  29 /  70  20  10  20  10
CLOVERDALE              40  56  36  55  30 /  70  30  10  30  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ402>408.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/25 LUNDEEN/HARDIMAN





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