Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212031
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING HOT WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
A 1.3 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A 13000 J/KG CAPE. SOUNDING
INDICATED LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THIS MORNING SO RATHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
AND BLACK RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TODAY`S TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE LEVELS EXPECT UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
LOWLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WILL KEEP LOWLAND COVERAGE ISOLATED
HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SUPPRESSES MORE WIDESPREAD UPDRAFT
INITIATION. DCAPE ABOVE 1000 AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 50 F
INDICATE STRING WIND GUSTS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION AS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH AFTERNOON CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG. MODELS
ALSO HINT AT WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ALLOWING
FOR A FEW LOWLANDS STORMS WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY STRONG AND VERY BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. RESULTANT CIRCULATION WILL INDUCE A
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ADVECTING HOT DRY AIR MASS INTO THE
CWA. CONSEQUENTLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AIR MAS STABILIZES OVER
MOST OF THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE FALLING BELOW AN INCH. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/0000Z - 23/0000Z...
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250. WDLY SCT TO
SCT 3SM TSRA BKN040-050 IN AREA MTS AND MORE ISOLD IN THE LOWLANDS.
WINDS GENERALLY SW TO W AOB 12KTS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE E TO SE
BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. SIMILAR TS COVERAGE EXPECTED IN AREA MTS AFT
18Z...BUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A DRIER...CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL BE
PUSHED IN AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICT TURNS MORE
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...AFTER TUE LITTLE TO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 3 TO 7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT WITH UPPER HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
LIGHT KEEPING VENT RATES GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 79 101  77 100  77 /  10  20  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  96  74  95  75 /  20  20  20   0   0
LAS CRUCES              72  99  71  98  72 /  10  20  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73 100  72  99  73 /  10  20  20   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              54  77  53  75  52 /  30  30  30  20  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  98  70  97  71 /  10  20  20   0  10
SILVER CITY             64  94  64  94  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
DEMING                  72  99  71  98  72 /  10  20  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               69  97  70  98  71 /  10  20  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      77 101  76 100  76 /  10  20  20   0   0
DELL CITY               70 100  68  99  68 /  20  20  20   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            76 103  74 102  74 /  10  20  20   0   0
LOMA LINDA              72  93  70  93  70 /  10  20  20   0   0
FABENS                  76 102  74 101  74 /  10  20  20   0   0
SANTA TERESA            73 100  72  99  73 /  10  20  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  98  73  97  74 /  10  20  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  98  67  97  68 /  10  20  20   0   0
HATCH                   70 102  69  98  70 /  10  20  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  99  71  96  72 /  10  20  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               72 101  71 100  72 /  10  20  20   0   0
MAYHILL                 64  85  62  84  62 /  30  30  30  20  10
MESCALERO               61  87  59  86  59 /  30  30  30  20  10
TIMBERON                60  85  58  84  58 /  20  30  30  10  10
WINSTON                 65  90  64  90  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
HILLSBORO               71  94  71  94  71 /  20  20  20  10   0
SPACEPORT               71  98  70  97  71 /  10  20  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            60  92  59  92  59 /  20  30  30  20  10
HURLEY                  64  95  64  95  64 /  20  20  20  20  10
CLIFF                   63  99  62  98  64 /  20  20  20  20  10
MULE CREEK              60  96  60  96  61 /  20  20  20  20  10
FAYWOOD                 68  94  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  71  98  72  97  74 /  10  20  20   0   0
HACHITA                 70  97  69  97  70 /  10  20  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          73  99  72  98  73 /  10  20  20  10   0
CLOVERDALE              73  93  66  93  66 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ



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