Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 032059
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
259 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOTS OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND THAT WILL HELP FUEL
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING SO A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE`VE GOT PLENTY OF MOISTURE...BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR
WE ARE MISSING A GOOD TRIGGER. WE WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON
OROGRAPHICS AND HEATING TO HELP GET STORMS GOING...WHICH IS
ALREADY WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY LIGHT SO
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. TONIGHT`S STORM COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...BUT I`M NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. WE WILL SEE THIS PATTERN REPEAT ITSELF OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THE WEEKEND WE WILL HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE`S NOT ENOUGH RAIN CHANCES TO CHANGE YOUR
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS...BUT HAVE A PLAN IN CASE YOU NEED TO GO
INSIDE FOR AN HOUR OR SO AS ONE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES BY.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEEK MORE OF THE SAME. THE RIDGE WILL STILL
BE ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO FUEL THE
THUNDERSTORMS. AS A MATTER OF FACT THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE
MOISTURE MAY EVEN GET CONCENTRATED A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. WITH SO MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE USUALLY I`D BE A CONCERNED
ABOUT FLASH FLOODING...BUT AT THIS TIME I STILL DON`T SEE A STRONG
TRIGGER TO HELP GENERATE SOME WIDE SPREAD HEAVY RAINS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL
HELP PUT A CAP ON OUR PM THUNDERSTORMS. TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT
TEMPERATURES WE WILL SEE NEAR NORMALS HIGHS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE ALOFT GETS A
LITTLE STRONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 04/00Z-05/00Z.
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 THRU 06Z AND AFT 18Z SCT LOWLAND AND
NMRS MTN 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040 WITH GENRLY -SHRA BKN040-060 06Z-18Z.
WINDS GENERALLY E TO SE AOB 12KTS EXCEPT NEAR TSMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION WITH UPPER HIGH FINALLY SHIFTING FROM
THE GREAT BASIN REGION TO THE BORDERLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER IT WITH DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE DRYING TREND GOING TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 74  94  73  95 /  40  30  40  20
SIERRA BLANCA           69  90  68  91 /  40  30  30  30
LAS CRUCES              70  91  69  92 /  40  30  40  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  90  69  92 /  40  40  40  20
CLOUDCROFT              55  69  54  70 /  60  60  50  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  90  68  91 /  40  40  40  30
SILVER CITY             63  82  62  82 /  50  50  50  50
DEMING                  70  91  68  93 /  40  40  50  30
LORDSBURG               69  90  67  91 /  40  40  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  94  73  95 /  40  30  40  20
DELL CITY               68  92  67  93 /  30  30  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            73  94  71  95 /  40  30  30  20
LOMA LINDA              69  88  68  89 /  40  40  40  20
FABENS                  72  94  70  94 /  40  30  40  20
SANTA TERESA            72  92  71  94 /  40  30  40  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  91  69  92 /  40  40  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           69  91  69  92 /  40  40  40  20
HATCH                   68  92  68  93 /  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS                70  90  69  91 /  50  30  50  30
OROGRANDE               71  91  71  92 /  40  30  40  20
MAYHILL                 57  77  57  79 /  40  50  40  50
MESCALERO               57  79  57  81 /  50  60  50  40
TIMBERON                57  78  56  79 /  50  50  40  40
WINSTON                 61  82  60  83 /  50  50  50  50
HILLSBORO               65  89  64  90 /  40  40  40  40
SPACEPORT               68  91  68  92 /  40  30  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            59  81  57  82 /  60  60  50  60
HURLEY                  65  84  63  85 /  50  50  50  40
CLIFF                   65  88  64  89 /  40  50  40  40
MULE CREEK              65  87  63  87 /  40  50  40  40
FAYWOOD                 65  86  64  87 /  40  50  50  40
ANIMAS                  68  90  67  90 /  50  40  40  30
HACHITA                 68  91  67  92 /  60  40  50  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          66  88  64  88 /  60  50  60  50
CLOVERDALE              65  85  63  84 /  60  50  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

BRICE/GRZYWACZ


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