Area Forecast Discussion
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300
FXUS64 KEPZ 260900
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas and this will result in chances for thunderstorms
through the next seven days. High pressure aloft will also bring
seasonably warm temperatures across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low level weather pattern will remain typical for the summer
monsoon season with a broad area of low pressure or "heat low"
over the western United States states and high pressure across the
plains. This scenario will sustain southwest to southeast winds
across the CWA with trajectories showing inflow of Gulf of
California and/or Gulf of Mexico Moisture in the boundary layer
the next seven days.

Meanwhile a broad east to west oriented ridge aloft will extend
across central and then northern New Mexico into Saturday.
Circulation around this feature will push warmer drier continental
air aloft into mainly eastern portions of the CWA today through
the weekend while deeper moisture remains over the west. Thus over
the next 5 days precipitable water will range from around an inch
in the east to about 1.4 west with surface dewpoints upper 40s
east to mostly mid 50s west. Consistent with this will be the
instability parameters which show CAPE`s generally less than 500
J/kg east with values around 1000 J/kg west. Thus will outlook
mostly scattered to numerous storms west with mostly isolated
coverage east through Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday ensembles and superblend suggest deeper
moisture will remain in the west and return to the east resulting
in more widespread storm coverage later periods.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 26/12z-27/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms mainly from 20z to 06z. Otherwise mostly VFR
conditions with SCT-BKN050-100. Surface winds speeds mostly from 5
to 15 kt with gusts to 40 kt near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will continue to flow into southern New Mexico
and west Texas and this will result in chances for thunderstorms
through the next seven days. High pressure aloft will also bring
seasonably warm near normal temperatures across the region. Winds
speeds mostly from 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 96  74  96  73 /  20  30  20  20
Sierra Blanca           92  70  95  69 /  20  20  20  10
Las Cruces              95  70  94  69 /  20  30  30  30
Alamogordo              94  70  93  69 /  20  30  40  30
Cloudcroft              72  55  73  54 /  50  40  60  50
Truth or Consequences   94  71  95  69 /  20  30  40  40
Silver City             89  65  88  63 /  30  40  60  60
Deming                  95  70  95  68 /  20  30  30  40
Lordsburg               93  70  94  69 /  20  30  30  40
West El Paso Metro      95  74  95  73 /  20  30  20  20
Dell City               97  71  98  70 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Hancock            96  74  97  74 /  20  20  20  20
Loma Linda              90  69  89  68 /  20  30  20  20
Fabens                  96  74  96  73 /  20  30  20  20
Santa Teresa            95  73  95  71 /  20  40  20  20
White Sands HQ          95  71  94  70 /  20  30  30  30
Jornada Range           95  69  94  68 /  20  30  30  40
Hatch                   97  70  97  69 /  20  40  30  40
Columbus                95  71  95  69 /  20  40  20  40
Orogrande               94  72  95  71 /  20  30  30  20
Mayhill                 82  58  82  58 /  50  40  60  50
Mescalero               82  59  82  58 /  50  40  60  50
Timberon                80  59  80  58 /  50  40  50  50
Winston                 88  62  87  60 /  40  50  60  60
Hillsboro               93  67  92  65 /  30  50  50  60
Spaceport               95  69  95  68 /  20  30  40  40
Lake Roberts            88  59  88  59 /  40  50  60  60
Hurley                  91  65  90  63 /  30  30  40  50
Cliff                   92  66  93  65 /  30  40  50  60
Mule Creek              91  66  90  65 /  30  30  40  50
Faywood                 91  65  90  64 /  40  40  50  50
Animas                  93  70  93  68 /  20  30  30  50
Hachita                 93  69  94  67 /  20  30  20  50
Antelope Wells          92  67  93  67 /  30  30  30  50
Cloverdale              89  64  88  64 /  40  30  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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