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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230831
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ALL BUT HUDSPETH COUNTY
QUITE DRY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM. EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL WORK WESTWARD OVER HUDSPETH AND
EASTERN OTERO COUNTIES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THOSE AREAS TO SEE A
SLIGHT RISK OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE MOISTURE
WILL PUSH WEST OVERNIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT WILL CREATE
INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR ON STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT ON SUNDAY. THUS
WARM AND DRY WITH WINDY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXACT WESTWARD EXTENT OF A GULF
MOISTURE SURGE. A LARGE NW PAC LOW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
HAS PLACED OUR REGION UNDER A DEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NM PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING A WESTWARD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ON SE
WINDS ACROSS TX AND HELPING TO INCREASE SW WINDS INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TODAY THE AREA WILL SEE
CONTINUED BOUTS WITH HIGH CLOUDS...BUT VERY DRY AIR. SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH LOWLANDS SEEING MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY IS APPEARS THAT THE DRYLINE/GULF MOIST SURGE WILL BACK INTO
HUDSPETH CO AND POSSIBLY INTO E OTERO COUNTY. THIS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INDUCES SOME INSTABILITY IN THE DAYTIME HEATING. THUS HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME POP POTENTIAL OVER A FAR EASTERN SLIVER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

TONIGHT THE MOIST PUSH PRESSES WEST WITH A DRYLINE SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL.
OTHER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT HERE. THUS FOR FRIDAY...THE
AREA WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPANDS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL AS EASTERN SIERRA
AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THESE WILL BE HEAT INDUCED STORMS AIDED BY
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THUS POPS IN
THE PM HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS SAME SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
AGAIN FOR A VERY SIMILAR FORECAST AGAIN SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THE WEST COAST LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO PRESS EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND BRING SW WINDS
BACK TO THE EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH VERY DRY AND WARM AIR MOVING BACK OVER ALL ZONES. IN
ADDITION THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND MIXING DEPTHS DEEPEN.
THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWLANDS FLIRTING WITH THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR.
WILD FIRE DANGER WILL INTENSIFY WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/12Z-24/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD WITH SKC-SCT200-250. GENERALLY W TO SW WINDS
12-18G25KTS DURING DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND UNDER 10KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DRY LIGHTNING RISK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
SET THE REGION UP FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF IT. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME DRY LIGHTNING NEAR THE EDGE OF
THE DRYLINE WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. FURTHER EAST INTO
HUDSPETH COUNTY GENERALLY WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS...BUT STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL PICK UP
AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS SEEING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  70  93  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           95  66  90  63  91 /  10  20  30  30  20
LAS CRUCES              95  61  92  59  93 /   0   0  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              95  61  91  59  92 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              71  49  69  46  70 /  10  20  30  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  64  89  60  90 /   0   0  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             89  55  91  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  95  57  93  54  94 /   0   0  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               95  57  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      95  68  92  68  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               95  60  92  57  93 /  10  20  30  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            96  68  95  66  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LOMA LINDA              88  59  86  57  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  96  69  93  66  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            97  63  92  62  93 /   0  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  69  90  67  91 /   0  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           96  52  90  52  91 /   0  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   92  61  88  60  89 /   0   0  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  62  92  59  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               98  61  93  59  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
MAYHILL                 82  57  78  54  79 /  10  20  40  40  30
MESCALERO               84  48  81  45  82 /  10  10  30  30  20
TIMBERON                82  49  79  46  80 /  10  10  30  30  20
WINSTON                 85  49  82  46  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               90  57  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               94  57  88  57  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            86  49  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  89  58  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   94  52  93  49  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              91  42  90  39  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 90  57  85  54  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  95  59  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 94  56  93  54  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  60  93  57  93 /   0   0  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              90  55  89  52  89 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD