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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 112008
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
208 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM MAY INCREASE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE
NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE MAINLY TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING. FURTHER MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOWLANDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS ACTIVE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY DUE TO
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. STILL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE LOWLANDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF DEMING WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND MAY HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN COVERAGE WILL
BE MORE SCATTERED IN DISTRIBUTION WITH SOME AREAS GETTING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY GENERATE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG
DRAINAGES...ARROYOS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES AS RESULT OF THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND STORMS IN
THE AREA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT REGAINS SOME STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE
HIGH ALOFT WILL HAVE RE-CENTERED OVER NEVADA IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LOWER OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW PATTERN WILL
ALLOW IMPULSES TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA. THESE SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL HELP ENHANCE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MIGHT BE DELAYED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THE AREA WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAIN
ZONES. THE STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH SMALL HAIL. THE PATTERN MIGHT INTENSIFY BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR
INTO THURSDAY WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR NOW THE
PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 12/0000Z - 13/0000Z
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 WITH SCT TO POSSIBLY NMRS 1-3SM
TSRAGS BKN030-040 W OF DIVIDE THRU 06Z...ISOLD COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFT 17Z WITH GREATER COVERAGE EAST OF RIVER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND SCT COVERAGE OVER W. WINDS GENERALLY E TO SE
AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SCATTERED STORMS WEST AND ISOLATED
STORMS EAST. STORMS OVER THE WEST COULD ONE AGAIN PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ABNORMALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  95  75  95  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           64  87  67  91  66 /  20  20  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              69  94  69  94  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  95  70  94  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              51  72  52  72  52 /  20  40  40  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  92  71  93  70 /  30  20  30  20  30
SILVER CITY             65  85  66  87  65 /  50  40  30  30  40
DEMING                  67  94  68  95  68 /  30  30  30  30  20
LORDSBURG               70  93  70  94  69 /  50  40  30  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74  95  75  96  74 /  20  20  20  20  20
DELL CITY               66  92  67  94  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK            72  94  72  96  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              62  86  66  89  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
FABENS                  72  95  72  96  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA            71  94  71  95  71 /  20  20  20  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           65  91  65  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
HATCH                   70  95  68  95  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                70  92  71  93  71 /  30  30  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               67  94  69  94  69 /  20  20  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 52  77  54  77  55 /  20  30  30  30  30
MESCALERO               52  80  53  79  54 /  20  30  30  30  30
TIMBERON                51  77  53  78  54 /  20  30  30  30  30
WINSTON                 62  83  62  85  62 /  60  40  30  40  40
HILLSBORO               66  85  65  89  64 /  40  30  30  30  30
SPACEPORT               69  91  68  92  68 /  30  20  20  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            59  82  60  86  59 /  60  40  40  30  40
HURLEY                  65  87  67  88  65 /  40  40  30  30  30
CLIFF                   66  91  65  91  65 /  40  40  40  30  40
MULE CREEK              61  87  61  89  61 /  50  40  40  30  40
FAYWOOD                 63  85  64  89  63 /  50  30  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  71  95  71  93  70 /  50  40  30  30  30
HACHITA                 67  93  67  94  66 /  40  30  30  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  94  68  93  68 /  40  40  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              63  88  65  89  62 /  50  40  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/26





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