Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 041557
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1057 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.Late Morning Update...
Ongoing overrunning rain event will warrant a continued 80-100
percent pops across the forecast area this afternoon and into the
evening as currently advertised. Regional radars do show a break in
the rain back across west AL and this should move over the area by
this evening...but still seeing several weak disturbances back to
the west embedded within the southwest flow... so will leave
current high pops as is for now. Still no thunder seen or expected.
So far areas generally along and north of a West Point to Covington
to Athens line have received between 0.50 to 0.75 inches of much
needed rain... and with diminishing trends noted to the west...
still no expecting any significant flood problems at this time... at
least through tonight. Stay tuned for the second round that arrives
on Monday-Monday night... but will fine tune this threat with later
forecast.  Otherwise... no major changes are planned to current
forecast at this time.  /39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Models in agreement in keeping the CWA in a wedge while a series of
short waves moves over the region. This will continue to produce an
overrunning situation with plenty of isentropic lift through Monday.
Most of the precip will be light rain or drizzle...however models
agree on two waves of moisture that will produce light to
occasionally moderate rain. The first wave moving across the CWA
today...and the second Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts over the
next 36 hours over the entire CWA will be 1 to 1.5 inches...not
enough to cause any flooding concerns. Instabilities will be very
low today and tonight. On Monday models are hinting at weak
instability Monday afternoon however most of the instabilities will
be south of the CWA. Will therefore continue with rain or drizzle
and leave thunder out at this time.

17

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Once again, no significant changes to the general Long-Term Forecast
trends. Medium-range models continue to show consistency with
previous trends and fairly good agreement amongst each other, at
least through mid-week. Although we are still seeing the models
generate some instability Monday night and Tuesday, mainly across the
west and south still, the numbers are not impressive and low-level
shear is near negligible. I have kept the slight chance for thunder
in across western and southern areas Monday night and across the
south Tuesday, but prospects for any severe weather remain low.

Models diverge a bit concerning the evolution of the the remainder of
the extended forecast period. Both bring in the coldest air of the
season so far behind the system later in the workweek, but there are
noticeable differences in timing of the cold air as well as the
precipitation chances ahead of the cold surge. My late week grids are
basically a compromise between the two for now.

20


&&

.AVIATION...
/Issued at 627 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016/
12Z Update...
CIGS will continue to lower through the morning with most sites at
IFR by 15-18Z. Once CIGS go to IFR they should remain IFR for the
rest of the forecast. Winds will remain easterly 10-15kts with a
few gusts to near 20kts today...diminishing to northeast 10kts or
less tonight and early Monday. Areas of rain and drizzle will
continue through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on timing of IFR cigs.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          45  43  56  49 / 100 100  90  90
Atlanta         46  43  57  51 / 100 100  90  90
Blairsville     45  41  57  46 / 100  80  90  90
Cartersville    47  45  57  51 / 100  80  90  90
Columbus        56  50  61  57 / 100  90  90  90
Gainesville     45  42  55  48 / 100 100  90  90
Macon           53  49  60  56 /  90  90  90  90
Rome            47  44  57  51 / 100  80  90  90
Peachtree City  48  46  57  51 / 100 100  90  90
Vidalia         63  58  67  60 /  60  70  80  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17



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