Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 250553 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 829 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Isolated convection having a hard time getting ramped-up this
afternoon but should continue to slowly increase in strength and
coverage for the next couple of hours before diminishing. Still
not anticipating more than low-end scattered coverage and severe
thunderstorms are not expected at this time.
Very little appreciable change to the overall pattern through the
short-term forecast period. Forecast area remains under weak
upper- level ridging and on the western periphery of the western
Atlantic surface ridge. Models also continue to show some weak
surface troughiness on the northwest side of ridge over the
forecast area persisting through the period as well. All of this
adds up to little change in the general forecast trends through
Monday night with near to slightly above seasonal normal lows and
above seasonal normal high temperatures with isolated to scattered
diurnal convection. Instability remains marginal at best for any
strong to severe storms.
Small area of the east-central Georgia portion of the forecast
area flirting with Heat Advisory level Heat Index values this
afternoon however the area is small and not expected to expand
significantly. Forecast Heat Index values tomorrow are similar or
slightly below todays values so I do anticipate an advisory will
be needed at this time.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
No major changes were made to the extended period as the typical
summer-time pattern continues with mainly isolated to scattered
diurnally driven convection expected each day... and above normal
temperatures continue. See the previous discussion below. 39
PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION.../Issued 348 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016/
LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
An upper level ridge will continue across the southern
Appalachians Monday night and this should keep showers and
thunderstorms mainly diurnal. However the NAM continues pops after
midnight with greater moisture under the ridge.
The upper ridge drifts a little S over the area for Tuesday. However
plenty of moisture and instability will continue chances for mostly
diurnal showers and storms favoring N GA. Another hot day with high
temperatures in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s for portions of
the mountains. Heat indices will range 100-105 for a large portion of
central and E GA.
The upper level ridge pattern continues for Wednesday with mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms favoring N GA. Most high
temperatures will again be in the 90s except for mid to upper 80s
for portions of the mountains.
The upper ridge shifts some to the se for Thursday...more so on the
GFS than the European and the GFS has more moisture for N and W GA
than the European. This will still favor N GA for showers and storms.
The GFS minimizes the upper ridge for Friday and Saturday with more
moisture across the area while the European holds the ridge in more
with less moisture. This will still favor N GA with the greatest chances
for showers and storms.
No significant aviation wx impacts expected this forecast with
VFR conditions. Only concern is chance for TSRA in the
afternoon/evening mainly between 19-23z which should remain
scattered with no more than 30 percent coverage at any one time.
Surface winds will remain SW through the forecast with speeds 8kts
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 95 73 95 73 / 30 30 30 20
Atlanta 93 74 93 74 / 40 30 30 20
Blairsville 90 69 88 68 / 40 30 50 30
Cartersville 94 71 93 72 / 40 30 40 20
Columbus 95 75 94 74 / 30 30 30 20
Gainesville 94 74 92 74 / 40 30 30 20
Macon 95 73 96 74 / 30 20 30 20
Rome 95 72 94 72 / 40 30 50 20
Peachtree City 93 71 93 72 / 40 30 30 20
Vidalia 95 73 96 75 / 20 20 20 10