Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 190135 AAB
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the forecast tonight. Clouds on the
increase as we speak. Forecast low temperatures are
running about 16-19 degrees above normal.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 600 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017/

UPDATE...For Aviation...

&&

UPDATE...
Near term forecast in good shape. Showers have dissipated and
clouds continue to clear over most of North GA and temps quite
warm. KAHN may tie or break their daily record max temp of 76
today. Does not appear any other daily records will be tied or
broken.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 646 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Water vapor loop early this morning shows a large trough in the
mid/upper levels across the SW US and S. Plains with numerous vort
maxes rotating about. A compact northern stream shortwave trough
was also noted across IN/OH...with more zonal flow across the CWA
and a building...diabatically-induced...shortwave ridge just to
the west. At the sfc...a weak cold front was draped across the
Appalachians SW into NW Ga and AL/MS.

For today...dynamics from northern stream vort max should help
sustain some showers along the cold front this morning across north
Georgia. Temps have been slow to fall with moist airmass in place
along with abundant cloud cover. As the front pushes more into the
state...low temps across northern tier should fall into the 50s.
Have opted to keep shower chances primarily along the cold front
today and it progresses south. However...activity becomes much
more isolated as the day wears on due to loss of upper level
support from parent system along with shortwave ridge arguing for
subsidence as it builds into the area from the west. Lack of
appreciable MUCAPE /warm mid levels/ will preclude mention of
thunder today. Despite cloud cover...kept temps well-above normal
once again as airmass remains stagnant. Position of the front
today will have an impact on north Ga high temps...thinking front
will stall between ATL and MCN...with far north Georgia seeing the
drier/slightly cooler airmass by day`s end as weak sfc high
settles in. Looking at highs lower 60s north to upper 70s central.

Tonight: Weak post frontal sfc high pressure should creep a little
further south into the CWA...possibly down towards ATL as front
remains stalled across central Ga. Low temps will range from 40s
north to upper 50s central. Weak ridging aloft and lack of forcing
should keep most everyone dry overnight.

Thursday: Near daybreak...sfc high will attempt to ridge down the
mountains and create a weak wedge. This should push some of the
drier air into E Central Ga...just not sure how far west the wedge
will make it. In the meantime...moisture transport will increase
across the Gulf states as sfc low develops in Arklatex region in
response to shortwave across S Plains. This will allow stalled
boundary to lift north as a warm front /keeping high temps warm
again/. This next system will approach the CWA at the end of the
period...bringing a nice batch of rain and some thunder for the
beginning of the extended.

Kovacik

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
No big change to the overall pattern in the long term. A series of
waves will affect north and central GA through the period with the
best chances for rain Thursday night and again Sunday night. The
upper closed low moving into the mid MS valley Thursday night
should bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to
the forecast area. A few strong storms are possible Thursday night
however instability may be limited by existing daytime cloud
cover. This system moves rapidly to the east and there may be a
brief break for Friday night for parts of the area. Southwest flow
aloft will continue to bring impulses through the southeast states
into the weekend. A strong closed low moving across the lower MS
valley and into the southeast will bring another chance for
possibly a few severe storms Sunday night into early Monday. GFS
ans ECMWF differ on speed and track of this system...however
expect increasing showers and thunderstorms for that time frame.
Ridging across the southeast for Tuesday should bring drier air.

Temperatures will continue warm through the period...however
overnight lows should dip into the 40s by the first of next week.

41

&&

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions to start with some potential for MVFR ceilings
to develop late night/early morning with IFR-MVFR vsbys possible.
Any lower ceilings or vsbys will improve to VFR during the day.
Surface winds becoming light and variable or lgt wnw tonight
then becoming E-S during the day Thursday 10 kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence for timing and likelihood of MVFR cigs and
 any vsby restrictions.
Medium confidence for timing of wind shift.
High confidence all other elements to start then medium
 confidence aft 17z.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          49  67  55  69 /   0  10  80  60
Atlanta         53  68  58  69 /   5  30  90  50
Blairsville     46  61  48  64 /   5  40  90  60
Cartersville    50  67  56  69 /  10  50  90  50
Columbus        56  72  61  72 /   5  40  80  40
Gainesville     51  64  54  68 /   5  30  90  60
Macon           54  72  59  73 /   5  10  70  40
Rome            50  67  55  69 /  10  60  90  40
Peachtree City  51  70  58  70 /   5  40  90  40
Vidalia         57  74  60  75 /   5   5  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL


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