Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 191126
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
725 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

A drier and more stable air mass has spread over the forecast area
in the wake of a frontal boundary. Instability should be limited
today with very little CAPE forecast...and LI values mostly
positive. So the dry forecast for today and tonight has been
continued. There may be some moisture return into central GA on
Sunday afternoon as the winds become easterly. However...pops were
limited to a portion of central GA and kept from 20 to 30 percent.

Expect temperatures to still be very warm but dew points should be
lower.

41

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Extended periods start off with ridging at the surface and aloft
building into the forecast area. The weakening surface boundary
remains over portions of east central GA Monday afternoon, and
with models in good agreement showing an axis of higher vorticity
in the afternoon and evening, will continue to keep highest pops
across southern portions of forecast area. Drier air across north
GA should keep partly cloudy skies there during the peak of the
eclipse Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday we will be in between systems as a short wave moves
into the Great Lakes area by late afternoon. Moisture begins to
increase with just low chances of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms developing across the area. We remain on the
south side of short wave as it pushes the cold front into north GA
on Wednesday. Much of the upper level energy lifts northward,
away from the area, as the front slowly pushes through much of the
forecast area wednesday night into Thursday morning. The front
remains across portions of south GA through Friday and proximity
of front, combined with several impulses in the upper level flow
will keep continued chance of diurnally driven convection across
mainly central GA.

Guidance temperatures in good agreement through the period
showing near normal through the period and will continue to take a
blend. Temperatures during the eclipse (Monday) look to stay
steady an hour before the maximum obscurity (between 1pm-2pm),
then drop a couple degrees up to 30 minutes after max obscurity
(3pm). Temperatures are expected to rebound quickly after the
eclipse. The temperature drop will be less for those under cloud
cover/precipitation. This drop in temperature is not expected to
impact the high temperatures Monday

Atwell


&&

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

VFR through the period with diurnal cumulus SCT040-050. No showers
or thunderstorms expected. Winds will be west to northwest 7 to 10kt
today and diminishing tonight.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  70  94  72 /  10  10  10   5
Atlanta         91  71  94  74 /  10  10  10   0
Blairsville     87  62  88  66 /  10   5  10   5
Cartersville    91  68  94  71 /  10   5  10   5
Columbus        95  73  97  76 /  20  10  20   5
Gainesville     91  70  93  72 /  10   5  10   5
Macon           94  70  95  75 /  10  10  20   5
Rome            92  68  94  71 /  10   5  10   5
Peachtree City  92  69  94  71 /  10  10  10   5
Vidalia         95  73  95  75 /  20  10  30   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Atwell
AVIATION...41



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