Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 250718
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
218 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014/

UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR...BUT DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT DRY
ENOUGH THAT IT SEEMS MOST IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR NOW...LOW TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK AS WELL. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MAKING IT THAT MUCH EASIER FOR SANTA
TO MAKE HIS STOPS. MERRY CHRISTMAS!

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FINALLY SEEING FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF
SHOWER BUT NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AND CERTAINLY TOO
STABLE FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION. FINAL CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...
TEMPS WILL BE A TAD TOO WARM BUT CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
CHRISTMAS DAY...SHOULD BE CLEAR AREA WIDE.

NO OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL
BLENDS DOING A DECENT JOB AT THAT POINT. PLEASED WE HAD LITTLE
LESS IMPACT THAN EXPECTED THIS EVENT ASIDE FROM SOME FLOODING AND
WIND DAMAGE IN A FEW SPOTS. HOPE EVERYONE HAS A HAPPY HOLIDAY AND
MERRY XMAS.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE... WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO BRING CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STILL NO INSTABILITY NOTED... SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY SHOWERS. SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014/

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH FORECAST
HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE EUROPEAN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY AND A
MODEL BLEND PUT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODEL BLEND
POPS INCREASE TO 60-70 ACROSS N AND SOME OF CENTRAL GA SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS NO INSTABILITY FORECAST WITH THE FRONT AT THIS
TIME. GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE DIFFERENT MONDAY WITH THE FRONT AND THE
EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER DUE TO A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE
FRONT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AS
A COMPROMISE. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES 20-30 PERCENT POPS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL GA.
THE AIRMASS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT COULD COOL OFF
ENOUGH THAT A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE GA MOUNTAINS. GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE AGAIN VERY
DIFFERENT FOR TUESDAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING GREATER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MOISTURE
FORECAST CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

BDL

HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH A FEW AREA RIVERS... MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
DID REACH MINOR FLOOD... THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOOD PROBLEMS HAS ENDED. PONDING OF WATER ALONG LOW
LYING AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO DRAIN... SO USE CAUTION THROUGH THE
EVENING WHEN TRAVELING.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
THINGS ARE FINALLY CHANGING WITH VFR CEILINGS BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING WITH
SPEEDS 10-14KT GUSTING TO 20KT. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO
10KT OR LESS BY 14Z. PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND
SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  33  58  36 /   0   5   5   5
ATLANTA         53  36  58  41 /   0   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     50  29  59  33 /   5   5   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    51  30  59  35 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        57  36  60  45 /   0   5   5  20
GAINESVILLE     53  34  58  38 /   0   5   5   5
MACON           58  32  60  43 /   0   5   5  10
ROME            51  30  60  35 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  54  30  58  37 /   0   5   5  10
VIDALIA         61  38  63  45 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01


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