Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 272108
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

TOUGH GO OF IT TODAY IN TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING TO
HAPPEN WITH THE CLOUDS. AFTER THINGS WERE FAIRLY STAGNANT THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON THERE HAVE BEEN BREAKS DEVELOPING FROM KDTL TO
KFSE. THEREFORE THIS WILL REMAIN THE CHALLENGE INTO TONIGHT AND
WED. OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BREAKS THE LOW CLOUDS
LIFTED EARLIER FROM KBJI TO KROX AS WELL BUT THESE AREAS HAVE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT REPLACED THEM. SOUTH-SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
MAY BE HELPING TO SCOUR THINGS OUT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF
THINGS REMAINING CLOUDY TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTINESS
THIS EVENING BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT LEAST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE. THESE STEADIER WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THICKER
FOG AT BAY BUT THERE MAY STILL BE SOME 2-5SM VSBYS IN MIST AROUND.
WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EXPECTED VSBYS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR.

THERE IS ALSO PRETTY STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WHICH
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
LOOK QUITE DRY IN THE MID LEVELS BUT LOTS OF CIRRUS ABOVE THAT.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF ECHOES FROM THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS BACK NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. MAIN SUPPORT
SEEMS TO BE THE UPPER JET AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALONG IT. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE IDEA OF SOME MINIMAL PCPN FROM
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION. WITH THE DRY MID LEVELS THIS MAY BE MORE VIRGA THAN
ANYTHING BUT WILL MENTION A MIX POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. KEPT
TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND STEADY
WINDS...BUT ALL THESE BETS ARE OFF IF SOME AREAS CLEAR OUT.
CONTINUED THE IDEA OF A SLOWER EVOLUTION TO ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN
REACHING THE NORTHERN FA ON WED...AS THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST
NOTHING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z THU IN THE FAR NORTH. THIS CONTINUES
INTO WED NIGHT AS THE MAIN PCPN BAND REMAINS IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
MAY BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF BREEZIER WINDS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT AS WELL ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS WORKING
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THU WITH NOT A LOT OF TEMP RECOVERY
EXPECTED. ONE POSITIVE THING IS THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. IF THERE
IS SUN ON THU IT WILL WARM UP. AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRI WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FA FRI
AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY
PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY BE
FALLING DURING DAY ON SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT. AN ARCTIC PLUNGE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES ON FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY
NIGHT...MAY SKIRT THE AREA...POSSIBLE PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW.
NO MAJOR SNOW PRODUCERS ARE ON THE HORIZON...HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THIS TAF ISSUANCE CONCERNS LOW CIGS AND VIS PRIMARILY. EXPECT THE
LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO KDVL LATER TODAY. CURRENT MODELS
HAVE CLOUDS FURTHER WEST ALREADY...SO HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
CLOUD COVER AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SOMEWHAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
EXACT TIMING...BUT RELATIVELY HIGH THAT CLOUDS WILL REACH KDVL
TODAY. OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW...WITH VIS DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER SOME IMPROVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.