Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 062003
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED...A LINGERING DRIP OR
TWO IN NORTHWEST IOWA WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO BE GONE. OTHERWISE
LINGERING CLOUDS SOUTHEAST AND CUMULUS ELSEWHERE WILL DECREASE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY FOR MORE THAN
MINIMAL CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT TUESDAY AS IT STARTS TO GO
MORE EASTERLY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 50S TONIGHT AND HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE COOL LOWER 70S.

THE RESURGENCE OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES IS A FACTOR.
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING WITH THE HEATING AND DISPERSION THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DIURNAL STRATIFICATION COULD BRING SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED
THE SMOKE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THAT TIME.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MID-WEEK PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST...AS A SERIES OF MID-LVL WAVES MOVE THROUGH A MORE
SUBDUED WESTERLIES ALOFT. HOWEVER...QUALITY MOISTURE REMAINS LACKING
AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT DIMINISHING SHOWERS MOVING IN BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MID-LVL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS WEEKEND...SIGNALING A
PATTERN CHANGE INDICATIVE OF WARMER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...DRAGGING AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS
SLIGHTLY.  TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO APPEAR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE
READINGS NEAR 90 OR IN THE LOW 90S.

DEPENDING ON HOW FAR HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT ANOTHER FETCH OF SMOKE
OVER THE AREA AND IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3SM OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA. EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE TO 3-5SM BY 21Z
AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE GENERAL AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN
THE TAF FORECASTS...PLUS EXTENDING THIS MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTION
THROUGH THE COMING NIGHT. OTHERWISE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
ON THEIR WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CEILINGS 1-3K FEET OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 22Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH 07/00Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
07/15Z- 18Z WITH HEATING AND MIXING HELPING WITH SMOKE DISPERSION.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...



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