Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171939
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE WAVE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE PROJECTED WITHIN SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL
DRAW MARGINAL GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS ON SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE
QUALITY BY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM DIURNAL MLCAPES OF ~1500 J/KG WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION DIMINISHING/ENDING
IN THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PLEASANT...DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DISPARITY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE FASTER. A DRYLINE WILL
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY FROM WESTERN KS TO WESTERN
OK...WITH VERY STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. A STRONG
INSTABILITY/SHEAR SETUP SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. DEGREE OF CAPPING MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIRLY STRONG EML OVERSPREADING THE REGION. THE
ECMWF OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS TO
INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON
THURSDAY...THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST
KS AND POSSIBLY OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS IF THE FASTER ECMWF VERIFIES.
SO MAIN STORM CHANCES...WITH PERHAPS MORE COVERAGE...WOULD BE OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER VALUES ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER VALUES WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITY IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 40% SATURDAY...AND 40-45% SUNDAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  71  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      34  71  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          34  70  50  76 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        35  70  50  76 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  72  51  77 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         36  72  52  80 /   0   0   0  30
GREAT BEND      35  71  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
SALINA          35  72  52  79 /   0   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       34  70  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     35  71  48  77 /  20   0   0  10
CHANUTE         35  71  47  77 /  20   0   0  10
IOLA            34  71  48  76 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    35  71  48  77 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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