Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 020015
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SEND A TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH IS STILL DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY INFLUENCE IN KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO MAINTAIN ITS
HOLD ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE WEAK
WAVES FROM THE MENTIONED LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER ONE FOR
THIS TIME FRAME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE LEFT IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THIS PATTERN. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THE ONGOING
FORECAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE
LOWER 90S.

JUANITA

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST BREAKS
DOWN AT THE START OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW MIGRATES SOUTH FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK WAVES IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE NORTHERN TROUGHS ARE ON TRACK FOR A NEAR COLLISION
COURSE. MODELS DIFFER IN SYSTEM PLACEMENT AT 850MB DURING THE
LATTER TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST AGREEMENT IN THE VERY LAST PERIOD
WHICH COULD BE A TOSS UP AT THIS POINT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY TRACKED TO BE MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING WHICH MAY OR
MAY NOT PAN OUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND ANY AFTERNOON
HEATING INITIATED DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST.

JUANITA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  WITH MOST OF THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNSET.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE EARLY ON
SUN MORNING.  COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR ACROSS
SE KS.  SO WILL GO WITH A 3SM BR FOR THE KCNU TAF FOR THIS CHANCE
FROM 10-14Z/SUN.  MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A TEMPO 1/2SM FG...BUT WILL
THINK ABOUT THIS FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE...AS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  93  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          71  92  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        70  92  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  93  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         69  95  69  96 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      69  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          71  95  71  97 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  94  70  96 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  92  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         70  92  69  94 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            70  92  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  93  69  95 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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