Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 011747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1247 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

High clouds have prevented fog development across southeast Kansas
for early this morning and latest satellite imagery keeps the high
clouds in place...therefore fog chances should be limited. The
very pleasant weather conditions will continue for this weekend
across Kansas with near normal highs today and a bit warmer on
Sunday. Meanwhile some weak isentropic lift in the 305-310K layer
could spark off a few showers/storms late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning across central Kansas. Temperatures will
continue to warm heading into Monday along with chances of
thunderstorms for Monday night across central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Confidence remains high for increasing precipitation chances on
Tuesday-Wednesday as models continue to show a deep upper level
trough moving across the central plains this period...In addition
there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with favorable
wind shear aloft. The main question will be how much instability can
materialize which would boost severe weather potential. Otherwise
cooler drier air should overspread the Heartland for late next
week as a cold front pushes south and east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The proximity of a surface ridge axis, centered from Iowa into
Missouri, will keep winds light southeasterly to light/variable
across central/eastern Kansas throughout the period. VFR is
expected to prevail. The exception may be transient MVFR
visibilities in BR at the CNU terminal early Sunday morning,
conditional on the degree of mid-high level cloudiness. Very weak
305-310K isentropic upglide/instability could yield scattered-
broken altocumulus castellanus decks, and perhaps isolated light
convection Sunday morning in central Kansas. However, the odds of
meaningful rain are too low to mention at the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    78  56  80  59 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      78  54  79  59 /   0  10  10   0
Newton          76  54  78  58 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        76  54  79  58 /   0  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   78  55  81  59 /   0  10  10   0
Russell         77  53  80  59 /  10  20  20  10
Great Bend      78  53  80  58 /  10  20  20   0
Salina          76  54  80  60 /   0  10  10   0
McPherson       77  54  79  59 /   0  10  10   0
Coffeyville     78  53  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         76  52  79  57 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            75  52  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    77  51  80  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.