Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 050500
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Light/variable winds overnight will shift to the SE by mid-
morning, and could gust to 15-20KT through the afternoon. Gusts
should largely diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will continue to build east over the region today and
tomorrow, resulting in warming temperatures and sunny skies.
Temperatures are warming up nicely this afternoon and by the end of
peak heating, we should see readings in the mid 80s most
locations. Another beautiful day expected tomorrow with highs a
few degrees warmer than today due to the return of south winds.
Friday will be one of the warmest days of the week with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday through
the weekend. A closed upper low will enter the SoCal coast Thursday,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region this
weekend. This would put west TX and southeast NM under unstable
southwest flow aloft, potentially aiding in thunderstorm development
during this time. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds
today will veer to the south tonight as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As this surface trough strengthens, southerly
flow will increase, pulling modified Gulf moisture toward the region
heading into the weekend. Friday, a fairly weak dryline will be just
west of the region with dewpoints mainly in the 40s across the
forecast area. Would like to see higher dewpoints however with
daytime heating and a bit of upslope flow in play across the higher
terrain, it may not take much moisture for some isolated convection
to develop across the west and move east into the Tran Pecos through
the evening.

Slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening
as a dryline pushes east through the day. By mid afternoon, the
dryline looks to sharpen along the TX Panhandle/NM border
extending south through the Big Bend with dewpoints in the upper
40s to low 50s east of this line. With slightly better moisture,
instability and bulk shear expected Saturday, any storms that
develop may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds possible. West winds will increase significantly across the
region Sunday, shunting moisture and best rain chances east for
the day. The dryline looks to retreat Sunday evening, returning
thunderstorm chances to far eastern zones. Will continue to fine
tune the forecast for this weekend over the next couple days so
stay tuned. Models show the upper low lifting northeast by Monday
as weak upper ridging begins to build over the western ConUS. This
pattern will result in dry and warming conditions through at least
mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  90  59  93 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         58  90  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  56  89  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  59  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          49  87  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          44  82  51  86 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           54  88  61  89 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         55  88  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  93  62  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/



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