Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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434
FXUS64 KMAF 101053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings and visibility will affect KCNM, and perhaps KPEQ, due
to FZFG.  Will include temporary conditions at both until 10/15Z.
IFR ceilings, if not fog, may develop and affect all the rest of
the area terminals, except KFST, so will include temporary lower
conditions at those sites.  Expect VFR conditions to prevail
areawide after 10/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

First off, we are seeing some freezing fog develop in the Pecos
River Valley west to the Marfa Plateau. There could be a few slick
spots on area bridges and overpasses, but the fog should dissipate
by mid-morning.

A very nice weekend is in store if you didn`t enjoy the cold weather
as of late. Zonal mid level flow along with southwesterly surface
winds will allow temperatures to warm back to normal today under
mostly sunny skies. Even warmer conditions will arrive Sunday with
highs into the 70`s! A weak front will slide into the area Sunday
night and wash out by Monday afternoon. Temperatures may cool a few
degrees, but we area still looking at above normal values.

Zonal flow continues into mid week keeping the very cold air locked
to our north. Long range models originally showed a piece of this
Arctic air breaking off and moving south into our region around
Wednesday. Latest model runs keep the coldest air bottled up across
the Plains and don`t send it south or bring in a weak cold front mid
week. Cold, shallow airmasses are not handled well in the models and
they will likely continue to flip-flop with each run. There is a
potential for large temperature forecast busts ahead due to this
uncertainty. Will need to monitor this closely as much is likely
to change in the upcoming week. It does look to remain dry
areawide through at least Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  42  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  41  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  38  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  47  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  40  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          65  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  41  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  41  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           64  39  74  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29



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