Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
FXUS64 KMAF 300300
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Upon further scrutiny of hi-res models, we`ll cancel the High Wind
Warning early for KGDP. Updates out shortly.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
Latest sfc obs show radar returns are not yielding anything at
the sfc, w/gradually clearing skies on the backside of the upper
trough. Winds continue to subside, and the Wind Advisory has been
allowed to expire as scheduled. Latest model data suggests strong
winds in the Guadalupes over the next few hours are still up in
the air, so we`ll leave the High Wind Warning in place. Regarding
temps, much will depend on how quickly and how much clearing takes
place overnight, but latest models suggest current temps may be a
couple of degrees too low. However, given the freeze warning in
place, we`re reluctant to raise overnight mins. Otherwise, we`ll
do a quick update to remove the Wind Advisory, reduce POPs, and
update other parameters as necessary. Updates out shortly.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.
Rain showers have come to an end at all terminals, though MAF
could see one last shot at some showers within the first couple
hours of the forecast period. Thereafter, dry conditions are
expected, with ceilings improving to VFR areawide this evening and
gradually clearing overnight. Winds will remain out of the west-
northwest through the period, with gusts expected to diminish
overnight tonight for all but MAF/FST where gusts to around
20-25KT will remain possible. Gusts will return to all terminals
by 18Z Sunday.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 131 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
upper level trough that has brought a sudden change in the wx
passing over NM today and the Panhandle tonight. Sunday the low
will move northward across KS as high pressure slowly builds in from
the west as the region remains on the east side of a West Coast
Strong cold front blew through the area overnight. Cold air
advection continuing today with unseasonably cold temperatures and a
gusty north wind. Will continue previous trend of going toward the
colder side or below guidance for lows tonight. Have inherited a
Freeze Watch for tonight from SE NM down to the Marfa Plateau and
Big Bend. Based on latest guidance plan on dropping some of the
zones out of the watch since does not look like much of that area
will fall to freezing tonight. Part of how cold it gets tonight
will depend on if it can get any warmth today. Will upgrade
Northern Lea... Guadalupe and Davis Mtns... and Marfa Plateau to a
Freeze Warning tonight as expect these locations will reach freezing
and this will be the last freeze of the season. Temperatures begin
to recover tomorrow afternoon with 80s returning by Monday. Looking
at another cold front mid week.
As of 18z have a swath of light rain drifting across SE NM and the
Upper Trans Pecos. Best chance of rain tonight will be NE Permian
Basin. Could see a few thunderstorms but with the cold air not
Will continue the High Wind Warning for GDP tonight. Have not seen
higher wind speeds develop yet across the southern counties except
for Terrell but they may kick in later today... will allow the
advisory to run its course.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 38 69 48 85 / 10 10 0 0
Carlsbad 35 73 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 49 83 54 94 / 0 10 0 0
Fort Stockton 38 73 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 33 66 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 34 67 44 83 / 10 10 0 0
Marfa 31 69 35 82 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 37 70 49 86 / 0 10 0 0
Odessa 37 70 48 86 / 0 10 0 0
Wink 37 74 46 89 / 0 0 0 0
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea County.
TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.
Freeze Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Sunday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-