Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 042302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015


The latest Aviation discussion is included below.



A large area of rain will continue to spread northward across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico before waning late tonight,
with little instability available for thunderstorm development.
Think upslope low level flow will contribute to low cloud
formation.  Therefore, will go with MVFR, and some IFR, ceilings
developing and affecting all but KMAF through the evening.  Drier
low level air could push into the area late tonight and aid in
breaking the lower ceilings up.  Expect VFR conditions by late
Monday morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/

Water vapor imagery showed that a well defined shrtwv trof was
absorbed into subtropical moisture connection (about +2 standard
deviations) this morning with a secondary shrtwv trof impinging on
wrn periphery of moisture axis. Mostly SHRA have developed, even
across the PB, and IR satellite indicates cooling clouds. Model
QPF shows that the best chance for heavier rain will be late
tonight across the Trans Pecos. With the heavy rain (1.3") that
occurred across SE NM/GDP Mtns last evening flash flooding is a
possible into tonight. Even "some" of the remnant moisture from
Marty will also have a good chance to lift up thru the Lower Trans
Pecos Mon AM. As these features move e-ne we expect that
dissipating SHRA and a few TSRA will move into the central
PB/Lower Trans Pecos btwn 12Z-18Z Monday. Precip will mostly end
late Monday even across the Trans Pecos. Isold-sct PoPs will be
warranted Tue PM across the Trans Pecos just ahead of next jet
maxima, especially if there`s some insolation in the mtns. Height
falls will continue as 70kt 3h jet max moves in later Wed and we
expect that convection will develop and expand into Wed night/Thur
AM as the location of upper low is forecast become favorable for
rain, even the possibility of extended duration rains. By 00Z Thur
the upper low will be INVOF SE AZ/SW NM and 12Z Thur near El Paso
City. Upper low will be re-enforced with renewed jet energy on its
backside favoring an even farther s position 00Z Fri and thus the
favored set-up for rains. With the low far enough s on Fri the
deformation zone may be set-up even better/closer to the PB/SE NM
favoring this idea of extended duration rains. The best chance for
heavy rain would be Wed night/Thur 21Z for PB and Lower Trans
Pecos. Flash flood watches will probably be needed then. WPC QPF 7
day totals across PB and Lower Trans Pecos for 12Z Wed-12Z Friday
are 1.25" to 1.75", but local higher amounts are expected. SHRA
could even linger Sat. High temperatures will remain below normal
thru the forecast while low temps are expected to be just above
normal as presence of moisture modulates diurnal ranges.


NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.



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