Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
000
FXUS64 KMAF 212045
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough approaching the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles, where sfc analysis pinpoints the associated sfc trough.
This, as well as strong winds rounding the base of the trough have
resulted in a windy day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Fortunately, cloud cover has put a damper on mixing, generally
keeping winds lower than previously forecast.  Both NAM and GFS
buffer soundings do not mix this afternoon as deep as they did 24
hours ago, and NAM H7 height gradients are not at tight as
yesterday`s, either.  Still, the NAM carries a decent mtn wave
signature thru 12Z Sunday, as well as a tight sfc pressure gradient.
Aided by a little subsidence on the backside of the trough, we see
no reason to discontinue wind warnings/advisories as they currently
lay, as winds look to saty up all night.  In fact, models suggest
the strongest winds rounding the base of the trough will be over the
SW zones at 12Z Sunday, so some warnings/advisories SW and S will
need to be extended into Sunday.

Otherwise, expected rainfall today hasn`t really panned out,
especially considering a dry subcloud layer as depicted on the KMAF
12Z RAOB.  Once the trough clears the region, grids look dry into
the extended.  An upper ridge builds in following the trough,
w/temps Monday climbing into the 70s most locations.  This looks to
be our warmest day this forecast, w/a series of fronts arriving
beginning Tuesday, taking temps to below normal by Wednesday
afternoon, thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  64  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  61  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  70  42  77 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  41  65  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 29  50  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          36  60  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  57  29  72 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  62  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  62  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  63  35  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for Andrews-Borden-Crane-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST Sunday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for Terrell.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for Pecos.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM MST/
     Sunday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

84/44



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.