Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 301447 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
947 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO DROP MOST PLACES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WINDING DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL TODAY AS
THE CORE OF THE COOLEST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA IS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT MAY SEE TEMPS NUDGE UP A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WINDING DOWN NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS HANG ON IN THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD THEN SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

.MARINE...

3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE AREA OF 3 TO 4MB WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT.  EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 33 KNOTS DESPITE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER WATER.
HENCE WL CONTINUE GALE WARNING INTO TONIGHT.  LATER FORECASTS MAY BE
ABLE TO TRIM END TIME OF GALE WARNING TO LATE EVENING OR EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES AS GALE GUSTS LOOK TO SUBSIDE A
FEW HOURS EARLIER TONIGHT.  BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL HOWEVER PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SLOWLY SUBSIDING
WAVES.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...

WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET TODAY DUE TO
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...GUSTING PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 30 TO
35 MPH. HENCE DANGEROUS...LIFE-THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND
50 CREATING HYPOTHERMIA RISK IN 30 TO 60 MINUTES.  A GOOD DAY TO
STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND AWAY FROM BEACHES...BREAKWALLS AND PIERS
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 250MB NEAR AND NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS
THE MAIN JET MAX WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY THAT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT.

THE SPLIT FLOW AND DOUBLE TROUGHS ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE MID
LEVELS WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH BRINGS A CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB WITH THE STRONGER
UPWARD MOTION CLOSE TO KENOSHA...BUT OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. MOST
OF THE MODELS KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST TIP THIS
EVENING...WITH THE GFS THE ONLY ONE OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

MOST MODELS APPEAR TOO FAST BRINGING IN THE COLDER LAKE AIR IN
FROM THE NORTH. WILL ADJUST MORE TO THE SLOWER NAM. THIS ALSO
KEEPS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER AREA THIS
MORNING TRANSITIONING TO A STRATIFORM RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE IS LESS THAN 100 EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NO
CAPE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL CRASH THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH ADDED COOLING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING
THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO CLEAR...AS THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST INTO TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY...SHIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY AIR COLUMN IN PLACE ON AREA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN GUSTY...THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S INLAND
SUNDAY...AND THE UPPER 60S MONDAY...WITH SOME MIXING AND 925 MB
MODEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP 50S FOR HIGHS
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH THE HIGH MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP 60S NEAR
THE LAKE.

GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER WITH SPECIFICS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
SOME FEATURES. THEY DO SHOW A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. THEY DIFFER WITH THE TIMING OF
SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS WELL AS
THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MEAN LAYER CAPES
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...SO KEPT THUNDER WORDING IN
THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

LOOK FOR MVFR TO EXPAND AND BECOME IFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FALLING TO IFR LEVELS UNTIL MID-MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BUT REMAINING IFR WITH THE MOIST COOL ONSHORE FLOW UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL DRYING FROM THE NORTH
WILL RAISE CEILING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN.

MARINE...

FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A FREQUENT GALE GUSTS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS AND THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AREAS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AREAS. AS A RESULT
WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING.

BEACHES...

HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-
     071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD


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