Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251417
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
917 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.MARINE...No changes to the Small Craft Advisory for the southern
two zones. Expect gradually improving conditions as the day wears
on.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 538 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017)

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

IFR/MVFR CIGS across southern Wisconsin will steadily improve
through the morning hours. Most of southern Wisconsin should see
CIGS lift to VFR levels by the noon hour, or 17z. It appears the
lake shore areas will improve quickly than inland areas. VFR
conditions will then remain in place through the TAF period. Look
for the northerly winds to diminish through the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 301 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017)

Friday and Saturday...Forecast confidence is medium.

A weak frontal boundary will approach the region associated with low
pressure well to the north. Weak warm air advection ahead of this
and shortwave activity moving through a mid level ridge and supports
a chance for showers. A weak low moving south of the state will also
bring precip chances.

On Saturday mid level flow will be southwesterly and another
shortwave will move through. A weak frontal boundary will be in
place as a surface low will move south of the state later Saturday
and overnight. Models differ on how much precip will clip the
region. There is some elevated instability so will keep mention of
chance thunder.

Sunday through Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

Cyclonic flow will dominate at the surface and mid levels. Several
lobes of vorticity will rotate through the region as the mid level
low moves from Canada to the Upper Great Lakes. The pressure
gradient will tighten up somewhat and 850 flow increases. Steep low
level lapse rates will promote mixing and breezy winds. Instability
becomes surface based but there is lack of any organized synoptic
forcing right now.

Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium.

The GFS shows the upper low moving off to the east but the ECMWF
lingers it and keeps bringing shortwave troughs through the region.
Surface high pressure will finally take hold by Thurs as the upper
low moves east.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Expect areas of low clouds to persist into the morning as low
level winds gradually diminish and low level rh remains high.
There will be a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs through mid morning.
Conditions should lift to VFR levels by late morning and remain
there through the remainder of the TAF period. Northerly winds
will gradually subside today as a narrow high pressure ridge
builds into the area.

MARINE...

A small craft advisory will remain in place through 3 pm south of
Milwaukee. Northerly winds will continue to diminish today as
weak high pressure builds east across the area.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ645-
     646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Friday through Wednesday...Marquardt



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