Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 260534
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
134 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Upper air pattern consists of a trough in the wrn U.S. with several
shortwaves in the central plains. These shortwaves will be the
weather maker for tonight and Thu as one of the shortwaves ejects
out of the wrn U.S. trough. Deeper moisture returns tonight and
remains over the area into Thu. Nam shows some strong isentropic
lift on I300K surfaces tonight with deep moisture moving through
the cwa. GFS and ECMWF show about the same thing as well.

Looks like a decent chance for rain tonight and have likely pops
spreading from west to east overnight. Could see with this whole
event 0.25-0.75 inch of rain with the highest amounts in the western
cwa through Thu afternoon. Looks like late tonight there would be a
break in the morning...then confidence becomes lower in the
afternoon for pops. Some models are going completely dry while
others are putting out some qpf. Went middle of the road and could
be conceivable after a break in the morning...could see
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon
with heating of the day and lake breeze boundaries helping to aid in
the convection that forms and have some slight chance and low chance
pops to account for this on land. Did not make too many changes to
the going forecast overall. Did keep some mention of fog in for
tonight through Thu morning for the area as winds will be light
tonight and low level moisture will again be abundant with the rain
developing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 444 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Periods of showers and some thunderstorms with temperatures running
slightly above average through the holiday weekend.

Quite a mess of a forecast into next week. Broad troughing across
the western U.S. will send several waves of energy NE across the
Plains around broad ridging across the eastern U.S. Timing of
shortwaves/WAA/jets vary among the models, so pinpointing exact
times of precip is nearly impossible. With ample low-level moisture
and some daytime heating, any piece of energy will be able to force
at least some shower/storm activity.

An axis on the eastern ridge will bring mostly dry conditions to the
CWA Thursday night into Friday morning, though a few stray showers
cannot be ruled out. By the afternoon, a subtle mid-level shortwave
and weakly coupled upper jet pattern will induce a shield of showers
and thunderstorms that will spread NNE across the Upper MS Valley
and western Great Lakes. At this time, the precip should move in by
the afternoon hours, thus limiting the amount of destabilization.
However, if the energy arrives later in the afternoon, increased
destabilization combined with 25-35kts of 1-6km shear will be enough
to produce some strong storms.

Continued moisture advection with ripples of energy moving northward
from the western trough will result in periods of showers and some
thunderstorms Friday through much of the day Saturday. It is
possible that some locations across mainly the west could see as
much as two inches of rain during this period.

By Sunday, the pattern transitions to a more zonal look. Chances for
showers and storms will continue during this transition on Sunday
before mostly dry conditions are expected late Memorial Day into
Tuesday as weak upper ridging moves across the Upper MS Valley and
Great Lakes region. Another more potent trough is then progged to
bring showers and storms for Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Area of rain showers over the area will continue to move northeast
the rest of tonight. Thunderstorms have been isolated at best so
left those out of the TAFs. Conditions will eventually lowering to
lifr/vlifr at all sites. Expect conditions to gradually improve Thu
morning reaching VFR by Thu afternoon at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 257 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

A period of NE winds up to 25 knots is expected over the western
lake today into early tonight and across the eastern lake late
tonight into Thu morning as low pressure develops over the plains
and moves to the Upper MS valley. Otherwise, expect winds at or
below 20 knots through the forecast period. Fog will continue to be
a problem at times and will be dependent on the rain that falls.
For now, went with widespread fog at times.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...Kluber
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...07



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