Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 230947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A
WARM WAVE MOVES UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. CENTER OF HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH
A EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WILL SEE ANOTHER GOOD DIURNAL SWING BETWEEN
MORNING LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS.

OVERNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP
AGAIN...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE A FEW CLOUDS CREEP IN OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES...FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THAT
SYSTEM IN OUR CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE SERN
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING GETS LEFT BEHIND BY NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH
LIFTING OUT THROUGH ERN CANADA DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...AND
CLOSES OFF.  THE RESULTING UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TAKES
AN INLAND TRACK...WANDERING SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE COLUMN DRY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT
CIRRUS IS SHOWN WED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THU SKIRTING EASTERN
EDGES OF THE FCST AREA.  OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL BY DAY
WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG AT NT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.  DID
BLEND IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR HIGHS WED AND BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS FOR LOWS THU NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WV...TO BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE
SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

HOWEVER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
MODELS. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE US...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
BRINGING SOME PCPN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...THEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEXT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE DISCREPANCY AMONG THESE TWO
MODELS...INTRODUCED ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING WILL AFTER 13-14Z...FOR A RETURN OF
VFR AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LIFR FOG WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 09/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL








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