Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 022027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASS THROUGH.  SOME REMAINING SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT WILL REACH A PKB-LEX LINE AROUND 00Z...THEN ONLY SLOWLY
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE RIDES UP THE FRONT. BY 06Z FRONT WILL BE ON A CKB-HTS
LINE...AND ON A EKN-BKW LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY.

THRU 00Z...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...BUT IFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING IFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS....ESPECIALLY SE OHIO.

AFTER 00Z...WITH MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM THE ONGOING SHOWERS
AND STORMS...IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. BY
AROUND 03Z...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GENERALLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

06Z-12Z...SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST6...BUT EXPECT
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/FOG OVER THE AREA.

AFTER 12Z...IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z...WITH VFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

SURFACE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY SW 6 TO 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MAINLY RIDGETOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDES UP THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY FOR
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. ALSO...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE TIMING AND FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV



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