Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 291923
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
323 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm southerly flow through the weekend. Cold front Monday. Upper
low with unsettled weather to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 128 PM Saturday...

Precipitation last night and earlier today most likely moistened the
atmosphere further south than the models are indicating. It also
left lots of boundaries, some of which are currently obvious on radar
and satellite. Therefore will raise pops a bit this afternoon, more
than models would indicate.

After afternoon/evening precipitation dies off, not much expected in
the way of precipitation tonight.

Soundings on Sunday indicate that storms will once again have to
battle off dry air entrainment to get started. With a bit more
moisture available over southeast Ohio and northern WV, will raise
pops a bit there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Saturday...

Cold front pushes through Monday with showers/storms. Front
should be progressive as to not cause much water concerns
despite wet grounds across southeast Ohio and northern WV. A Much
fresher and cooler airmass arrives behind the front for
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

Uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the mid/late
week omega block across the country. Models continue to waffle
regarding whether a developing low pressure system across the MS
Valley remains connected to the westerlies or if it cuts off
across the southeast states. This will play a significant
determining factor to the sensible weather across our area, with
temps and amount of rainfall. As a result, did not stray much
at all from Superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 128 PM Saturday...

Outside of some scattered mainly afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms, expect VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY


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