Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 201031
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control, with cool nights and warm
afternoons through the weekend. A strong cold front and low
pressure system crosses early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 AM Friday...

Surface high pressure moves directly overhead with mostly clear
skies through the period. Temperatures will continue to moderate
and highs will climb a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. With
the high overhead tonight, boundary layer winds will be light,
valley fog will likely be thicker than we saw the last two
nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

High pressure remains in control through the short term.Used a
consensus blend for highs and lows, with temperatures
continuing to run above normal for late October.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

A cold front will push through Monday night into Tuesday. Models
have some discrepancy on timing of the front, and especially
the track of the low pressure system the front is attached to.
The ECMWF is much farther west, taking the low from Western TN,
through IN and Northwest OH. The GFS on the other hand brings
the low across the forecast area. Either solution should still
result in a good dose of precipitation, so have a fairly broad
area of 80+ POPs. Kept some low probability thunder mention in
Monday afternoon just ahead of the cold front.

Cold air filters in as an upper trough slides through Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Should enough moisture linger behind the
surface feature, we could see some snow flakes at high
elevations. A brief ridge dries things out to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

High pressure overhead today with mostly clear skies. Low level
flow will be much weaker tonight through Saturday morning, so
IFR valley fog will be possible. Higher confidence for IFR fog
early Saturday morning at CRW and EKN, so have added with the
12Z TAF issuance. May have to expand fog coverage as forecast
becomes more clear later today or this evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today and medium overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR fog development tonight will vary from
current forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and
in rain at times early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MPK



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