Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 212031
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system crosses tonight. Cloudy and cooler in its wake
Wednesday. Unseasonably warm again Thursday and Friday.
Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Heating in the afternoon sun combined with just enough mixing
to lower RH values into the 20s across south central WV and
southwest VA. Given only an occasional puff of wind, marginally
low fuels, opted to hold off on SPS. Temperatures and dew points
converge this evening, with not much deviation from guidance
and previous forecast overnight tonight.

Light rain to the north and spotty light rain showers to the
south were marching up the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, in
response to a flat upper level short wave trough that will cross
the area tonight, likely bringing the showers along with it.
Models continue to peg higher coverage south and less north.

These showers wane Wednesday as the short wave trough exits
early, and heights build. A moist southerly low level flow will
struggle to take out a shallow inversion Wednesday, making for a
cloudy day with temperatures at or below the latest guidance,
which is lower than the previous forecast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...

Strong warm air advection kicks in on Thursday as a warm front
pushes northward across the region. There is some weak
instability and although we will mostly see just a few showers
with the passing of the front, it is possible that there could
be an isolated thunderstorm.

Friday should be mostly dry as we will be entrenched in the
warm sector as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great
Lakes. High temperatures will soar well into the mid to upper
70s. We should stay dry through 00Z Saturday, as cold front at
this point is still across Indiana/Illinois border.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will drive a cold
front through the region Saturday morning. Models continue to
slow down this front and now with the early Saturday morning
arrival, it appears that t-storm chances are decreasing. Still
left a mention for t-storms for now in the forecast, but
expecting mostly showers with isolated embedded storms possible.

Sharp temperature contrast behind the front and colder air
arrives fairly quickly Saturday night. With northwest flow it is
possible that we will see some snow flying Saturday night into
early Sunday morning, but this activity will mainly be in the
favorable upslope areas across Northern West Virginia Mountains.

Models continue to be miles apart after Saturday. As
ECMWF keeps high pressure overhead while the GFS has a clipper
system pushing across the region. Continued with what previous
forecast had with slight chance POPs Sunday night.

All guidance agrees however, that warmer conditions will make a
return by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

After a VFR afternoon, a weak wave is likely to bring showers
across mainly southern portions of the area tonight into
Wednesday, lowering visibilities and then ceilings to MVFR
overnight across southern sites HTS, CRW and BKW.

The showers will gradually taper off from west to east on
Wednesday. Visibilities will improve to VFR during the day, but
MVFR ceilings are likely to linger throughout the area
throughout the day.

Surface flow will generally be light south to southeast beneath
light south to southwest flow aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low MVFR ceilings approaching IFR in the
HTS tri- state area beginning early Tuesday may not be quite as
low as forecast. MVFR timing and extent may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...TRM



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