Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR REACHES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO FIRST...THEN CREEPS
FURTHER EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CERTAINLY AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR LATE JULY.  HAVE SURFACE FRONT
ABOUT ON TIME WITH OUR THINKING 24 HOURS AGO.  AROUND
08Z...ANALYZING THE FRONT SOUTH OF EKN TO JUST S OF CRW TO NEAR JKL
AT 08Z.  YET...EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT...KFCX RADAR HAS A NORTHWEST
FLOW AT 925 MB.

LOCAL DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT.  RAIN RATES
OF .75 IN 15 MINUTES HAVE BEEN MEASURED.  THE HIGHEST 3 HOUR TOTAL
OVERNIGHT...THRU 08Z WAS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS AN ESTIMATED 3
INCHES ALONG THE BOONE/RALEIGH COUNTY LINE.  SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE
REPETITIVE CELLS THIS PREDAWN THURSDAY IN CLAY COUNTY.

THE SECONDARY RAIN AREA BETWEEN HTS AND CVG SEEMS TO BE IN THE
850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT.  FIGURING IT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING.  ALSO FIGURING WITH
PW(S) LOWERING...THAT RAIN RATES WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING.  IF
NOT...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH 925 MB FLOW TURNING NE...STILL HAVE THE DRIER AIR HAVING A
TOUGH TIME PENETRATING INTO THE HEART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...BUT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TODAY.  I CAN PICTURE THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN WV GETTING INTO LOW CLOUDS WITH A DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 5 DEGREES.  SO NOT YOUR "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
DAY" PICTURED FOR PLACES LIKE BECKLEY.

WENT WITH SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA VALLEYS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS CHILLY FROM THE ELK RIVER
VALLEY ON SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THIS INCLUDES KANAWHA VALLEY AROUND CRW.
FIGURING ON THAT FOG AND WET TERRAIN HOLDING READINGS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WORK
WEEK. SEVERAL 500MB RIPPLES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO MOISTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DO HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGHS
AND LOWS BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TWO DISTINCTIVE SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
LEAST PARTS OF UP COMING WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES ALONG THE BACK
SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SECOND ONE IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS QPF FIELDS KEEP SATURDAY RELATIVELY DRY...AND TARGET MORE THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH A VORTICITY MAX IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
OVER AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA. THE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE PCPN.
THEREFORE...INCREASED CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO LIKELIES FOR
SUNDAY...AS EXPECTED CONVECTION MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED A BLEND OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY PER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION...WITH
A COOLER TREND AFTER THE WEEKENDS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR 10Z...FRONT SOUTH OF CRW AND WAS APPROACHING BKW. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNING NNE BEHIND FRONT...SO DRIER AIR NOW MOVING SSWW INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BEHIND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING.

500 MB DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THIS KEEPS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA...NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...THROUGH 15Z. HAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW
CEILINGS FIGURED TO LINGER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW.  THE NORTH WIND THAT DEVELOPS MAY
ALSO KEEP VSBY DOWN OVER THE HIGH GROUND INCLUDING BKW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRYING TO FIGURE THE DOMINATE VSBY AND
CEILING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...HAVE
WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT
EXCEPT AOB 1 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM STILL
POSSIBLE VOER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...UNTIL 500 MB WAVE
PASSES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY.

CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 3 TO 5 THSD FT BROKEN RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO BEFORE 12Z...THEN CREEPING INTO WEST VIRGINIA DURING
THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN THE CKB TO PKB TO HTS
CORRIDOR FIRST.

WITH CLEARING REACHING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA
21Z TO 06Z...SURFACE BASED FOG OR LOW STRATUS AOB 1 THSD MAY BEGIN
TO FORM OVER WEST VIRGINIA...IN THE COOLER AIR BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
ON FRIDAY.
HAVE FOG ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FORMING LATER IN THE PREDAWN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY STAY LOWER...OR OSCILLATE...
IN LOW CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND AT BKW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB










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