Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 272329
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of MVFR cigs likely at all TAF sites overnight. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms possible as well...especially
for the northwest AR sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably warm and humid weather will overspread the area
tonight and Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will likely be
reached early this evening, with steady or rising temperatures
later tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
overnight into early Tuesday, especially from southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas, and at least some small hail may
accompany the strongest storms.

The better chances of severe weather will come late Tuesday
afternoon in the far eastern part of the forecast area and again
later Tuesday evening to the southeast of Interstate 44 as the
cold front moves across the area. Any storm that can get going
late Tuesday afternoon will have the potential to produce all
modes of severe weather, with damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado the main risk with the later storms along the
cold front. Fire danger will also become elevated Tuesday
afternoon across parts of northeast Oklahoma where gusty south
winds and unseasonably warm temperatures will combine with
lowering late day humidity values.

Dry and mild weather will then prevail through the rest of the
week into the weekend, with temperatures warming back to well
above the seasonal normals over the weekend. The next cold front
looks to arrive late Sunday night or Monday morning, but current
indications suggest that it may come through dry.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  80  42  59 /  20  10  20   0
FSM   56  78  49  61 /  40  30  40   0
MLC   61  79  46  60 /  30  20  30   0
BVO   54  81  40  58 /  10  10  20   0
FYV   55  75  44  54 /  30  30  40   0
BYV   55  77  45  55 /  30  50  40   0
MKO   58  78  44  60 /  40  20  30   0
MIO   57  78  41  56 /  30  20  30   0
F10   59  80  44  60 /  20  10  20   0
HHW   59  79  50  62 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18


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