Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011639
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA WAS SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA CONTINUED TO PUSH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH WEAKENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM WITH THE
FREEZING LINE GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR I-40.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE FREEZING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH ANY REMAINING PRECIP BECOMING LIGHT DRIZZLE TO
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH TO SOUTH. FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SHOULD BE THE LAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WILL HOLD ONTO A MIX OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
PER LATEST RADAR IMAGE...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS/HAS LIFTING
OUT/EXITED THE CWA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH
AN APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS. THUS...WILL LET THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 11 AM...WITH THE NOTE THAT SOME PATCHY VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE TEMPS WARM. NO ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST POP/WX/TEMP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS AND THE MENTIONED ABOVE...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  25  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
FSM   38  32  43  37 /  40  20  30  50
MLC   37  31  43  40 /  40  20  30  60
BVO   34  20  39  35 /  20  10  20  60
FYV   36  24  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
BYV   36  23  39  34 /  20  10  20  50
MKO   36  26  41  37 /  20  10  30  60
MIO   35  22  40  36 /  20  10  20  50
F10   36  27  42  37 /  20  10  30  60
HHW   41  36  44  41 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....12




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