Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191736
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH/MID CLOUD OVERSPREADING AREA
OVERNIGHT. SHRA CHANCE TSRA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS NE OK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL FULLY MAKE A RETURN TODAY TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...LEADING TO EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND A FAIRLY MINOR INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD /ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY/ AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK HIGH
WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BE AS LATE AS NEXT SATURDAY...BEHIND A
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SEEN IN THE AREA.
REGARDING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY STORM SYSTEM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY SO WILL CONTINUE TO JUST GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THAT THESE VALUES WILL GO
UP IN FUTURE FORECASTS ONCE SOME OF THE TIMING AND AREAL DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SETUP...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS PROBABLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  76  60  76 /  10  40  70  60
FSM   56  78  59  74 /   0  20  50  70
MLC   57  77  59  74 /   0  30  60  50
BVO   54  78  57  76 /  10  40  70  60
FYV   50  74  56  70 /   0  20  50  70
BYV   52  76  55  71 /   0  10  40  70
MKO   56  77  59  74 /  10  40  70  60
MIO   55  78  58  74 /  10  20  70  70
F10   56  76  59  74 /  10  40  70  60
HHW   57  76  59  74 /   0  20  50  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...21





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