Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 272337
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY TAKEN OVER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WE JUST CANCELLED THE LAST REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...BUT SOME
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR FORECAST AREA BORDER FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
HUGO TO OZARK TO BERRYVILLE. SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
ANYWHERE IN THE AREA AS BLENDED POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW SLEET POTENTIAL
TO THE RED RIVER AND PUBLIC REPORTS /MPING/ SHOWED SLEET IN THE
DALLAS METRO AREA. FREEZING RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THE PRECIP THIS EVENING WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR ANY
PROBLEMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NW ARKANSAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CHANGE-OVER TO SLEET HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR WHICH EXTENDS BACK INTO NE
TEXAS...CAN BE SEEN IN VIS SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA WHICH HAS
DETECTED A STRIKES OVER FAR SE OKLAHOMA. THIS PRECIP BAND WILL
SHIFT EAST AND MUCH OF IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 00Z.
CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO UPPER TEENS
AND 20S MOST AREAS...WITH WARMER TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUN ON
SUNDAY. WARMER STILL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH
FIGURES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT ONE AS IT BLASTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. COLDEST AIR WILL BE LAGGING SOME BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT...BY TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS WITH THE FORECAST LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS PACIFIC SYSTEM ROUNDS DEVELOPING LONG WAVE WESTERN
TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS BEGINS TO RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM. FOR NOW THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING HOW QUICK THE
COLD AIR WILL MODIFY AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW LEAD TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THU-SAT TIME FRAME. THE PATTERN DEFINITELY
SUGGESTS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN
EVENT. FORECASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED IN
THE COMING DAYS AS THEY WILL CHANGE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10





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