Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
667
FXXX10 KWNP 181232
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Aug 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 18-Aug 20 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 18-Aug 20 2017

            Aug 18     Aug 19     Aug 20
00-03UT        4          4          4
03-06UT        3          4          3
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        3          2          2
15-18UT        3          3          2
18-21UT        4          3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day one (18 Aug)
due to the ongoing effects of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2017

              Aug 18  Aug 19  Aug 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 18-Aug 20 2017

              Aug 18        Aug 19        Aug 20
R1-R2           10%           10%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected on days
one and two (18-19 Aug) due to the flare potential of Region 2671.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.