Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 290031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 29-Jan 31 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 29-Jan 31 2015

            Jan 29     Jan 30     Jan 31
00-03UT        3          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          3          4
06-09UT        3          2          3
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          3
21-00UT        4          5 (G1)     3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on days two and
three (30-31 Jan) due to a recurrent Co-rotating Interaction Region
followed by effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2015

              Jan 29  Jan 30  Jan 31
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 28 2015 0441 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 29-Jan 31 2015

              Jan 29        Jan 30        Jan 31
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
exists as we as a slight chance for R3-Strong activity due mainly to
flare potential from Region 2268 (S10W05).



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