Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 181230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Apr 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 18-Apr 20 2014

            Apr 18     Apr 19     Apr 20
00-03UT        2          2          4
03-06UT        2          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          2          4
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          4          3
21-00UT        3          4          4

Rationale: G1 - minor storm levels are likely on day three (20 Apr) with
the arrival of the 17 Apr CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014

              Apr 18  Apr 19  Apr 20
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 - Minor solar radiation
storm during the period due to the complexity of regions moving towards
the West limb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 18-Apr 20 2014

              Apr 18        Apr 19        Apr 20
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely at R1-Minor levels for the next
three days (18 - 20 Apr) due to enhanced solar region complexity.



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