Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Feb 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2018 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 22-Feb 24 2018

            Feb 22     Feb 23     Feb 24
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        1          2          3
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          3          3
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2018

              Feb 22  Feb 23  Feb 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2018

              Feb 22        Feb 23        Feb 24
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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