Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 25-Dec 27 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 25-Dec 27 2014

            Dec 25     Dec 26     Dec 27
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          2
06-09UT        2          1          2
09-12UT        1          1          2
12-15UT        3          1          2
15-18UT        2          1          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 25-Dec 27 2014

              Dec 25  Dec 26  Dec 27
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 25-Dec 27 2014

              Dec 25        Dec 26        Dec 27
R1-R2           50%           30%           25%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class
(R3-Strong) flare on day one (25 Dec). Conditions are expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (26-27 Dec) as
Regions 2241 and 2242 continue their transit beyond the East limb.


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