Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 280031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Sep 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 28-Sep 30 2016 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 28-Sep 30 2016

            Sep 28     Sep 29     Sep 30
00-03UT        5 (G1)     6 (G2)     6 (G2)
03-06UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)
06-09UT        4          5 (G1)     4
09-12UT        4          4          4
12-15UT        4          4          4
15-18UT        5 (G1)     4          4
18-21UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     5 (G1)
21-00UT        6 (G2)     5 (G1)     5 (G1)

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on days
one through three (28-30 Sep) due to influences from a recurrent
positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2016

              Sep 28  Sep 29  Sep 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 28-Sep 30 2016

              Sep 28        Sep 29        Sep 30
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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