Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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AXUS74 KEPZ 050158 CCA
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NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO
0800 PM APR 04 2014

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF APR 04: MOSTLY ALL OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS IN MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT EXCEPT FOR EAST NORTHEAST OTERO COUNTY AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LUNA SOUTHERN GRANT AND SOUTHEAST HIDALGO COUNTIES WHICH
ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT...

...FAR WEST TEXAS: NO DROUGHT IN HUDSPETH COUNTY AND ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN EL PASO COUNTY...

SYNOPSIS...

AS OF APR 04 2014 AN EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. ENSO NEUTRAL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FOR SPRING 2014 WITH ABOUT A
50% CHANCE OF A MINIMAL EL NINO DEVELOPING DURING THE SUMMER AND
FALL OF 2014.


THE EL PASO AREA RECEIVED ONLY .18 INCHES  OF RAIN FOR 2014 TO DATE
WHICH IS 16% OF NORMAL. THIS IS THE 5TH TIME SINCE 1879 THAT EL PASO
RECEIVED NO PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY. THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO
HAS HAD NO PRECIPITATION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE FOR JANUARY WITH ONLY
THE TOWN OF GILA HOT SPRINGS SHOWING .02 INCHES. JANUARY 2014 RANKED
THE DRIEST EVER FOR THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO...AND THE 5TH DRIEST
EVER FOR TEXAS. EL PASO HAS ONLY RECEIVED .56 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE
OCT 2013. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SINCE 2009 EL PASO TEXAS HAS
LOST SOME 11.98 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO LOSING 1.3
YEARS WORTH OF RAIN. IT HAS BEEN THE DRIEST START TO THE YEAR IN
HILLSBORO NEW MEXICO IN 18 YEARS.

SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS FOR WEST
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR MAY AND JUNE OF THIS
YEAR AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ON GOING DROUGHT.


CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR 2014 THROUGH FEB FOR A FEW SELECT
LOCATIONS FOLLOW:
EL PASO........................ T   AMTS IN INCHES
LAS  CRUCES.................... 0   STATE UNIV
SANTA TERESA .................. T   KEPZ
DEMING......................... 0
ANIMAS......................... 0
GILA HOT SPRINGS............... .06
RED ROCK....................... 0
FAYWOOD........................ 0
WINSTON........................ 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.......... 0
ELK............................ 0
HILLSBORO...................... 0
CLOUDCROFT..................... 0
OROGRANDE...................... 0

SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD PERSIST IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH JUNE OF
THIS YEAR WITH DROUGHT LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY SOME IN
HUDSPETH AND EL PASO COUNTIES OF FAR WEST TEXAS.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE "EQUAL CHANCES OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CATEGORY FOR ALL OF 2014 INDICATING THAT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT SIGNAL EITHER WAY DESPITE THE FACT OF A POSSIBLE EL NINO
BY SUMMER/FALL.

THE SPRING AND SUMMER STREAMFLOW FORECAST AS OF MAR 1 2014 PREDICTS
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD RUN AROUND LESS
THAN 25% OF NORMAL WITH STREAM FLOW IN THE GILA WILDERNESS ABOUT 25%
TO 49% OF NORMAL. AT THIS TIME ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING
AT 18% CAPACITY. THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING OF 2014
FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS FOR SOIL MOISTURE TO RUN
SOME 20 TO 46 MM BELOW NORMAL.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN





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