Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
220 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

...JANUARY 2017 WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

As of 12 January, 2017, the USGS measured 14 day streamflow for most
of the region is near normal for this time of year. Some gages
along the Pecos, Mora, and Animas Rivers have an average
streamflow that is above normal. Several precipitation events over
the last 30 days have helped to keep streamflow up on unregulated
streams.

Looking at data from the NASA SPoRT project, relative deep soil moisture
(DSM, 0-200 cm soil depth) as of 12 January for most of the
Hydrologic Service Area is in the 50% range with wetter values
over the Four Corners region. A distinct area of DSM values of 35%
or less is visible over much of the area east of the Central
Mountain Chain with some values as low as 10-15% of total
capacity.

...PRECIPITATION...

Westerly flow over the last 30 days and a series of weather systems
have created predominately wet conditions over the western two-
thirds of the region with dry conditions east of the Central
Mountains. 30-Day precipitation totals (through 11 January, 2017)
for most of the area are normal to above normal with almost all
areas west of the Central Mountain Chain seeing 30-Day departure
from normal values of over 150%. East of the Central Mountains
precipitation values are less, ranging from about 75-90% of
normal.

This pattern is similar for December, 2016 with a stronger dry trend
east of the Central Mountains and with branch of the dryness
westward into the Jemez Mountains.

Finally, for the 2016-2017 Water Year, this pattern holds with overall
dry conditions east of the Central Mountain Chain and portions of
the Rio Grande Valley. A very dry October was balanced out by a
predominately wet November. The first half of December was a
return to dry conditions before a pattern shift in the second half
of the month brought a return of moisture to the region.


...SNOWPACK...

Snowpack data from the USDA/National Resource Conservation
Service indicate that the snowpack for most basins in northern New
Mexico are at or well above normal as of 12 January, 2017. These
values have increase significantly from early in the season where
most basins were less than 80% of normal. Basins on the east side
of the Central Mountains are showing below normal in the total
liquid precipitation for the water year.

One artifact of the current pattern over most of New Mexico is that
while the southwestern portions of the state have been seeing an
increase in precipitation, temperatures in the basins have been
above normal, thus most of the precipitation is falling as rain
and not snow. While it is still early in the season, this may have
an impact later in the water year as this snow is lost to seasonal
storage and runoff later in the season.

NRCS SNOTEL Basin Average Values as of 12 January 2017

Basin                                      Snow Water Eqv %       Total
                                                              Precipitation %

RIO CHAMA RIVER BASIN                      177                131
UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN                     145                107
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS     124                98
JEMEZ RIVER BASIN                          113                97
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN                   22                105
PECOS RIVER BASIN                           93                85
SAN JUAN RIVER HEADWATERS                  140                115
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN                         158                118
CIMARRON RIVER BASIN                       145                94
ZUNI/BLUEWATER RIVER BASIN                  88                147
RIO HONDO BASIN                             40                90
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS                           MSG                MSG

...RESERVOIR SUMMARY...

Most reservoirs in New Mexico have ample storage capacity at this time.

...STREAMFLOW FORECASTS...

NWS River Forecast Centers, in conjunction with our partners in the NRCS,
USACE, and the USBR, produce seasonal streamflow forecasts for
selected river locations and basins in New Mexico. These forecasts
are based on hydrologic conditions as of the 1st of the month and
may not reflect current trends and forecasts.

As of 1 January, most basins impacting New Mexico are expected to have
slightly below normal runoff volumes through the forecast period.
The Animas and Rio Grande basins are expected to have normal to
above normal runoff volumes.

---Forecasts issued by NWS/West Gulf & Arkansas-Red RFCs---

                                FORECAST RUNOFF                      AVERAGE
                                                                      RUNOFF
                                  MOST     REASONABLE   REASONABLE     30YR
                                PROBABLE    MAXIMUM      MINIMUM    1981-2010
    FORECAST           FORECAST        %            %            %
      POINT             PERIOD 1000  30YR   1000  30YR   1000  30YR    1000
                          (*)   AF   AVG.    AF   AVG.    AF   AVG.     AF
                    *(1)APR-SEP
                    *(2)MAR-JUL

Canadian River Basin
Eagle Nest RES
  Rsvr Inflow, NM       (2)     9.0   80   17.40   155   3.80   34    11.2
Cimarron River
  Cimarron Nr, NM       (2)    12.6   80   29.00   184   3.50   22    15.8
*Conchas RES
  Rsvr Inflow, NM       (2)    22.0   73   77.00   257   7.50   25      30

Rio Grande River
 Otowi Bridge, NM         (2)   720   100   1102   153    418    58     720
 San Marcial, NM          (2)   505    99    842   165    173    34     510

Rio Hondo
 Valdez , NM              (2)  18.5   101     30   163     10    54     18.4

Rio Pueblo de Taos
 Los Cordovas blo, NM     (2)    34    94     63   175     14    39      36

Embudo Creek
 Dixon                    (2)    42    88     78   163     17    36      48
 El Vado res Inflow, NM   (2)   275   122    446   198    146    65     225
 Chamita nr, NM           (2)   370   119    562   180    190    61     312

Rio Ojo Caliente
 La Madera, NM            (2)    68   151     99   221     34    75      45

Santa Cruz River
 Cundiyo, NM              (2)  16.0    87     27   148      8    42     18.3

Pecos River
 Pecos nr, NM             (2)    45    79     81   142     19    34      57
 Anton Chico nr, NM       (2)    45    71    113   179      8    12      63
 Santa Rosa Lake Inflow,  (2)    42    75    102   182      8    15      56

Gallinas River
 Montezuma nr, NM         (2)   7.0    71     18   184      1    11      9.8


---Forecasts issued by NWS/Colorado Basin RFC---

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    178    83    280    210    160    132    215
  Carracas                 Apr-Jul    310    82    520    375    275    225    380
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    900    82   1450   1160    815    625   1100
  Bluff                    Apr-Jul    890    81   1450   1130    790    590   1100

Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     55    85     87     68     49     40     65
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    580    79    990    770    520    400    735

Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    390    94    505    435    345    270    415


50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.



...DROUGHT...

Areas of drought persist over the region, mainly over northeastern New
Mexico and the NM/AZ border. This is predominately to a
combination of a long term moisture deficit (as seen in the soil
moisture data) and short term meteorological trends. Drought
status for NM is re- evaluated weekly and can be found at the
National Drought Mitigation Center website at
http//droughtmonitor.unl.edu.


...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK
The 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks issued by the
NWS/Climate Prediction Center continue an increased probability
of normal to cool temperatures and wet conditions for most of New
Mexico. An active weather pattern is expected to continue, which
will help increase snowpack as well as soil moisture values.
Please refer to the latest forecasts for more current weather
information.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
The NWS/Climate Prediction Center is continuing a La Nina Advisory
through at least the next 30 days. Models guidance is expecting
the weak La Nina to end with neutral ENSO conditions for the
spring. The current CPC forecast for February through April 2017
continues the increased likelihood of warmer and drier conditions
for New Mexico. These outlooks are issued monthly with the next
outlook to be issued on 21 January. Outlooks can be found at the
NWS/CPC website at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
At this time, the risk of spring flooding is average for basins with
near to above normal snowpack values and below normal for basins
with below normal values. Many factors impact the likelihood of
spring flooding, including snow pack and hydro-meteorological
conditions at the time of runoff.

The NWS Albuquerque Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) is serviced three
river forecast centers: West Gulf RFC (Ft Worth, TX), Arkansas-
Red Basin RFC (Tulsa, OK), and the Colorado River Basin RFC (Salt
Lake City, UT). These RFC`s issue a variety of hydrologic forecast
products during the year. Further products and current information
can be found at the following locations:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc
https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

You can also find additional weather and water products and forecasts
at the NWS Albuquerque website at:

http://www.weather.gov/abq

For questions or comments about this outlook, you can contact Royce Fontenot,
Senior Service Hydrologist, at 505-244-9150 x 228 or via e-mail
at royce.fontenot@noaa.gov

&&

54/Fontenot

$$




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