Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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111-113-115-VTC003-025-212115-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
404 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 2 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD JANUARY 19TH TO FEBRUARY 2ND.

...OVERVIEW...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE WINTER OF 2017 IS
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE SERVICE AREA...DUE TO BELOW
NORMAL SNOWPACK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHICH EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW PACK IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS IN THE ADIRONDACKS RANGE FROM A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF
FEET...WITH AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
MEASURED BY THE HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT IN THE
INDIAN LAKE AND SACANDAGA LAKE WATERSHEDS. UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW WAS
MEASURED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS...CORRESPONDING TO TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. SNOW TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
JUST UNDER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT MEASURED ON AVERAGE FOR THE
ASHOKAN AND RONDOUT WATERSHEDS. SNOW DEPTHS OF ZERO WERE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE SCHOHARIE WATERSHED SNOW SURVEY. MOST MOHAWK AND
HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOHAWK AND HUDSON HAD BARE GROUND OR HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT
SNOW COVERAGE.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

AS A RESULT OF RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT...28 DAY STREAMFLOW
AVERAGES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK ARE NEAR NORMAL
ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ STREAMGAGES.

WHILE STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE RECOVERING...GROUNDWATER LEVELS THAT
WERE VERY LOW DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. OVER
HALF OF U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ WELLS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE
STILL REPORTING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH IT HAS SEEN A RECENT IMPROVEMENT WITH AN UPTICK
IN PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER AND THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY. NEW YORK
STATE MESONET STATIONS IN THE SERVICE AREA ARE REPORTING NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING SOIL TEMPERATURES.

...WATER SUPPLY...

RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS GENERALLY RAISED
RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /NYCDEP/ WATER
SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 72 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS 14.4
PERCENT BELOW NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY. THIS IS TEN PERCENT HIGHER
THAN AT THE TIME OF THE LAST OUTLOOK...TWO WEEKS AGO.

HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN THE BLACK
RIVER WATERSHED ARE ALL WITHIN A FOOT OF TARGET ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. INDIAN LAKE AND SACANDAGA RESERVOIRS ARE JUST OVER A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WEEK
OF JANUARY 22ND...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
EXACT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RIVER
FORECAST OUTPUTS DO NOT DEPICT ANY FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ALTHOUGH SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 24TH THROUGH THE 28TH OF JANUARY...
AS WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 26TH THROUGH FEBRUARY
1ST...BOTH CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN THE SHORTER 6 TO
10 DAY TERM...THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE
LONGER LEAD OUTLOOK FOR 8 TO 10 DAYS CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.

...SUMMARY...

THE THREAT FOR SNOWMELT AND RIVER ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY...
FEBRUARY 2ND. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB PAGE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.

$$



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