Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FGUS71 KBOX 201821
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CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-
027-NHC005-011-RIC001-003-005-007-009-211415-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...THE LONG TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXCEPT THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES IN
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK IN THE
HEAD WATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE
2014 SEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS INTO EARLY
SPRING TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED
ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS
INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...STREAM AND RIVER
LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE...ALONG WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES...

MARCH 2014 HAS SEEN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE 19TH.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE 1.00 TO 2.50 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
TIME PERIOD OF MARCH 1ST THROUGH THE 19TH.

MARCH SO FAR HAS ALSO SEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THOUGH
THE 19TH THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE
BEEN RANGING BETWEEN 6 AND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO
HARTFORD CONNECTICUT...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT ON THE
GROUND. ACROSS THE REST OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SNOW
DEPTHS ARE 10 INCHES OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW REMAINS ABOVE 1000 FEET. PARTS
OF THE BERKSHIRES IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEPTHS. SNOW DEPTHS FOR LATE MARCH ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM
NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

LESS THAN AN INCH OF WATER IS CONTAINED IN THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO
HARTFORD CONNECTICUT. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES THE NORM ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE
BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS...MUCH LIKE SNOW DEPTHS...ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
WINTER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS RANGED FROM NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THE RIVER ICE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAD
CONTINUED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LOCATIONS
WHERE RIVER ICE LINGERED OVER NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...TRIBUTARY RIVERS AND
SMALL STREAM CONDITIONS RANGED FROM OPEN TO COMPLETELY ICE
COVERED.

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...SMALL RIVER AND STREAM CONDITIONS
VARIED...SOME WERE WIDE OPEN AND OTHERS ARE PARTIALLY ICE COVERED.

RIVER ICE IS LESS OF AN ISSUE TOWARDS THE COASTLINE...INCLUDING
RHODE ISLAND...AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE MOST RIVERS ARE NOW
ICE FREE.

IN SUMMARY...RIVER ICE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN EXTENT AND
THICKNESS ACROSS SOME STREAMS AND SMALL RIVERS IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

DUE TO ALL THE COLD WEATHER AND LIMITED RUNOFF OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...SOIL MOISTURE STATES HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS AS OF
17 MARCH 2014 SHOWED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE STATES IN PLACE
ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. BEGINNING MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING OUT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AFTER TODAY THERE ARE SOME
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH
27 TO APRIL 2 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...SUMMARY...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE...THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE NEAR
TERM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
MAIN STEM CONNECTICUT RIVER...WHERE THE LONGER TERM FLOOD THREAT IS
ABOVE NORMAL LARGELY DUE TO SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER.

RIVER FLOWS ARE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL AND ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. THE SNOW PACK FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXCEPT SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS DEEPER THAN NORMAL
WITH AN ABOVE NORMAL WATER CONTENT.

AFTER TODAY A LARGE PRECIPITATION MAKER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM A SYSTEM DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

RIVER ICE COVERAGE IS DIMINISHING BUT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...FROM WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING EACH DAY WILL HELP TO DETERIORATE SOME
OF THE ICE. BUT UNTIL THE ICE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST INTERIOR...THERE IS AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR ICE JAM
RELATED FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING WOULD OCCUR IF THE AREA
EXPERIENCED A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP CONCURRENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT.

KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD
EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND CLICK ON
THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK SECTION ON THE TOP LEFT.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY APRIL 03 2014.

$$

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