Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FGUS73 KGLD 052115
ESFGLD
COC017-063-125-KSC023-039-063-065-071-109-137-153-179-181-193-199-
203-NEC057-087-145-202100

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST THU MARCH 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR
RIVERS LOCATED
- IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
- IN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
- IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
  ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...GOVE...
  GRAHAM...AND NORTON COUNTIES. THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE
- THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- BEAVER...SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
- SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 19, 2015.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE...
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.

SINCE THE FIRST OUTLOOK ISSUANCE...A MAJOR WINTER STORM BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE AREA. THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA
RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT...GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE
SOUTHWEST HALF RECEIVED 5 TO 9 INCHES. COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
HAS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LAST WEEK. CURRENTLY THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH THE DEFICIT HAS BEEN LESSENED A LITTLE
WITH THIS LAST STORM.

WITH THIS RECENT STORM...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA (HSA) CONTINUES TO ADD TO ITS SURPLUS...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN COLORADO.  SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A
LITTLE DRY TO MOIST. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE GOODLAND HSA. THE CURRENT DROUGHT
MONITOR INDEX (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU) SHOWS THAT ABNORMALLY DRY
TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER A MAJORITY OF THE HSA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ANY DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) (WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/)
FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD MARCH 12 THROUGH MARCH 18.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 23 TO 33 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...HUGH BUTLER LAKE...AND ENDERS AND SWANSON RESERVOIRS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVIOR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE
CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 100 PERCENT OF ITS
CONSERVATION CAPACITY.

GIVEN THE LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK...SLIGHTLY BELOW TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTS INDICATING NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION...AN AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR
THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA FOR THE PERIOD OF MARCH 5 TO MARCH 19.

$$

BULLER



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