Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
206 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

RAINFALL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BROKEN AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
THAT RUN ALONG THE U.S. 701 CORRIDOR FROM GEORGETOWN UP TO
ELIZABETHTOWN.  ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...THOSE AREAS
ARE CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
IS DROUGHT FREE.  THE TABLE BELOW SUMMARIZES PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AT AREA OBSERVATION SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...JANUARY 7TH...FOR
VARIOUS TIME SCALES.


WILMINGTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      5.18      3.53      1.65       147%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      9.49      6.91      2.58       137%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)     11.68     10.17      1.51       115%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     33.79     32.01      1.78       106%
                ONE YEAR      59.21     58.45      0.76       101%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     66.23     67.12     -0.89        99%

LUMBERTON NC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.07      2.65      0.42       116%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      5.85      5.70      0.15       103%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      6.58      7.83     -1.25        84%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     17.25     23.15     -5.90        75%
                ONE YEAR      41.84     44.13     -2.29        95%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     50.11     50.95     -0.84        98%

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.34      3.34      0.00       100%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      6.43      6.48     -0.05        99%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      8.08      9.93     -1.85        81%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     21.67     28.82     -7.15        75%
                ONE YEAR      40.54     52.84    -12.30        77%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     47.32     61.26    -13.94        77%

FLORENCE SC
                              TOTAL    NORMAL   DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                            RAINFALL    VALUE     FROM         OF
                                                 NORMAL     NORMAL

      ONE MONTH (30 DAYS)      3.26      3.04      0.22       107%
     TWO MONTHS (60 DAYS)      6.56      5.72      0.84       115%
   THREE MONTHS (90 DAYS)      7.30      8.47     -1.17        86%
    SIX MONTHS (180 DAYS)     24.29     21.97      2.32       111%
                ONE YEAR      44.08     43.65      0.43       101%
           FIFTEEN MONTHS     51.31     50.86      0.45       101%


SEVEN DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY
AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ARE ALSO AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER UNTIL THEN WILL BE
DRY AND COLD.  DURING THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY PERIOD...NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF JANUARY AND FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALL FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE HEADWATERS OF
AREA RIVERS.

IN CONSIDERATION OF THE ABOVE FACTORS...THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH EARLY APRIL.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
JANUARY 23RD.

$$

RAN





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