Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FGUS71 KILN 051909
ESFILN
INC029-041-047-115-137-155-161-177-KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-
135-161-187-191-201-OHC001-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-041-
045-047-049-057-061-065-071-073-089-091-097-107-109-113-129-131-
135-141-145-149-159-165-071915-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
209 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH JANUARY 19 IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO...SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...INCREASING TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND JANUARY 11.

NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A RIVER OR
TWO TO RISE TO OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE.

THIS OUTLOOK IS PART OF A BIWEEKLY SERIES OF OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS
ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

THE FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR LEVELS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD...WATER EQUIVALENT IN ANY SNOW PACK...SOIL MOISTURE
AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS FALLING OVER
THE REGION. SNOW WATER WITHIN THIS PACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. THIS WOULD NOT CREATE A SUBSTANTIAL
IMPACT ON FLOOD RISK.

...STREAMFLOW...
WHILE STREAMFLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
AREA TRIBUTARIES, STREAM LEVELS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
EARLY IN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. OHIO RIVER LEVELS
ARE ELEVATED DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL, BUT WILL RECEDE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

...ICE...
THERE IS MINIMAL ICE ON AREA RIVERS.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA, BUT NEAR NORMAL IN NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA.

...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
AREA RESERVOIRS WERE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WINTER POOL
LEVELS AND WERE RECEDING...SO NEAR-OPTIMUM FLOOD STORAGE CAPACITY
IS IN EFFECT.

...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...
BY JANUARY 10 AND 11, LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE
OHIO VALLEY. AFTERWARD, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF RAINFALL
AS OPPOSED TO SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, WITH THE 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 12 TO 18 CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION, INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL VERSUS
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. SO FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
RISE DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALONG RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA CAN BE FOUND AT (ALL IN LOWERCASE):
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ILN


$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.