Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141915-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
214 PM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE PASCAGOULA RIVER
IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

HISTORICALLY FOR SOUTH ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO
MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING
THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN
LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

CURRENT SYNOPSIS...NEAR NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS MOST TO THE REGION WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH...THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
METEOROLOGICAL MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED FAST MOVING PRECIPITATION
EVENTS WITHIN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS
WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE
MONTH OF MARCH IS TYPICALLY AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR RIVER FLOODING
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECASTING A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING MEANS THAT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
TYPICAL TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS WITH TYPICAL TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOOD MAGNITUDE THROUGH EARLY APRIL. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LONG TERM ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS. THESE ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND ON THE WATER.WEATHER.GOV WEB SITE
UNDER THE EXPERIMENTAL LONG RANGE RIVER FLOOD RISK TAB.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF MARCH 11TH ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS...BASED ON
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RANGES FROM A LITTLE BELOW TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS...WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SPRING THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER IS PROJECTING NEAR EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...ABOVE
AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THROUGH MARCH. SEE
THE CPC WEB PAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.



$$

INFORMATION USED TO COMPILE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS PROVIDED
COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...LOWER MISSISSIPPI
FORECAST CENTER...CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY.

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND
THE PASCAGOULA BASIN AREA IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

GO TO: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB AND UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS ...CLICK ON
RIVERS & LAKES

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...
GO TO: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

FOR THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
GO TO: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

FOR THE USGS WATER WATCH SITE...GO TO:
         HTTP://AL.WATER.USGS.GOV (FOR ALABAMA)
         HTTP://MS.WATER.USGS.GOV (FOR MISSISSIPPI)
         HTTP://FL.WATER.USGS.GOV (FOR FLORIDA)
$$





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