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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 090436
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-150600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1035 PM MDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF JUNE 1 2013...

AS OF JUNE 1...THE 2013 SNOWPACK WAS ALMOST GONE OVER THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN.  FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW
REMAINED OVER THE HEADWATERS PORTION OF THE BASIN...BUT THE SNOWPACK
WAS NEARLY GONE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.  IN THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS JUST 2 PERCENT OF MEDIAN ON JUNE
1...DOWN FROM 41 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST MONTH AT THIS TIME...AND NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT THAN A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT 86 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...UP FROM
82 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH AGO...AND UP FROM ALMOST NO SNOW A YEAR
AGO AT THIS TIME.  ALMOST ALL OF THE SNOW IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN WAS
CONFINED TO POINTS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS.

WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE AND ARKANSAS BASINS. AS OF JUNE 1...THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 66 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND BELOW 87
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME. THE ARKANSAS BASIN
REPORTED 73 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...DOWN FROM 70 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND LESS THAN 77 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR
AGO AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE IS RUNNING WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN AT THE END
OF MAY WAS AT 40 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN FROM 54 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND BELOW 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO
AT THIS TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 50 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 52 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH
AGO...AND WELL BELOW 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING ARE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE RUNOFF SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             52            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                49            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 45            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     45            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                  49            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       38            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   29            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            33            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       48            APR-JUL
  NEAR MOGOTE                    45            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       32            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          13            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          32            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE THE
LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE RUNOFF SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        71            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         66            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     59            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   53            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   58            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                28            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   55            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   28            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       26            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE RUNOFF SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW