Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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NVZ001>041-CAZ070>073-CAZ519>527-140000-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
450 AM PDT FRIDAY APR 08 2016

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AS OF
APRIL 8 2016...

ISSUED JOINTLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE...

1/SUMMARY...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF MOUNTAINOUS
NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR
ON OCTOBER 1, 2015. AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST WATER YEAR TO DATE
PRECIPITATION ARE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. MARCH PRECIPITATION
WAS ABOVE AVERAGE IN WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NEAR
AVERAGE IN EASTERN NEVADA.

DESPITE SOMEWHAT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE
REGION, SNOWPACKS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA GENERALLY
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO AVERAGE IN MARCH. MOST OF THESE
IMPROVEMENTS CAME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH, BUT LATE MONTH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SMALL STORMS HELP MINIMIZE MELT.

WHILE NOT A DROUGHT BUSTING SNOW ACCUMULATION YEAR, REACHING APRIL
1ST WITH NEAR AVERAGE PEAK SNOW ACCUMULATION IS THE BEST SNOWPACK
THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE THE SPRING OF 2011. NEAR NORMAL RUNOFF
FORECASTS WILL NOT MAKE UP FOR FOUR YEARS OF LOW FLOWS, BUT ARE A
WELCOME RELIEF.

2/SNOWPACK...

SNOWPACK, AS OF APRIL 1ST, ARE NEAR AVERAGE, RANGING FROM 92% ON THE
WALKER BASIN TO A HIGH OF 126% FOR THE SNAKE RIVER BASIN OF
NORTHEAST NEVADA. ONLY THE WALKER BASIN IS BELOW AVERAGE. WHILE THE
NRCS SNOTELS DO NOT MEASURE THE MONO LAKE BASIN, CALIFORNIA DWR
SITES INDICATE THIS AREA IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

ON AVERAGE, PEAK BASIN SNOWPACK OCCURS BETWEEN MID-MARCH AND EARLY
APRIL, SO MOST BASINS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY PAST THEIR NORMAL PEAK
TIMING. ONLY THE WALKER BASIN AND EASTERN NV AREA FELL SHORT OF THE
NORMAL PEAK ACCUMULATION. THE TRUCKEE MATCHED THE NORMAL PEAK AND
ALL OTHER BASINS EXCEEDED NORMAL PEAK ACCUMULATION. THE TRUCKEE
MEADOWS AREA RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ON MARCH 28TH, BUT
THE STORM DID LITTLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA CRITICAL TO
WATER SUPPLY. THIS SAME STORM HOWEVER DID IMPROVE CONDITIONS IN
CENTRAL NEVADA, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER HUMBOLDT. ANY ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION IN APRIL WILL STRENGTHEN WATER
SUPPLIES. WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL HAVE
STARTED TO INITIATE SNOWMELT AND STREAMFLOWS ARE BEGINNING TO
RESPOND.

                                 APRIL 1 2016
BASIN                    PERCENT OF MEDIAN
LAKE TAHOE ........................   108
TRUCKEE RIVER .....................   100
CARSON RIVER ......................   108
WALKER RIVER ......................    92
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...............   111
UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER ..............   121
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ..............   109
CLOVER VALLEY & FRANKLIN RIVER ....   119
SNAKE RIVER .......................   126
OWYHEE RIVER ......................   110
EASTERN NEVADA ....................   105
LOWER COLORADO RIVER ..............    NA

3/PRECIPITATION...

CURRENT WATER YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION AS OF APRIL 1ST IS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEVADA. BASINS DRAINING THE EAST SLOPE OF
THE SIERRA ARE NEAR AVERAGE AND CONDITIONS WERE SOMEWHAT WETTER TO
THE EAST WITH THE FAR EASTERN NEVADA AREA AT 131%. MARCH
PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH
THE TRUCKEE AND LAKE TAHOE BASINS BENEFITING FROM THE WETTEST
CONDITIONS AT 156% AN 150% RESPECTIVELY, WHILE EASTERN NEVADA AND
THE OWYHEE RIVER WERE THE NEAR AVERAGE AT 93% AND 99%.

                                                  WATER YEAR 2016
                                    MAR 2016    /THROUGH 03/31/2016/
BASIN                              PCT OF AVE        PCT OF AVE
LAKE TAHOE .........................    150 ...........  115
TRUCKEE RIVER ......................    156 ...........  108
CARSON RIVER .......................    141 ...........  106
WALKER RIVER .......................    108 ...........  102
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN................    135 ...........  118
UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER ...............    117 ...........  122
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ...............    122 ...........  120
CLOVER VALLEY AND FRANKLIN RIVER ...    130 ...........  126
SNAKE RIVER ........................    129 ...........  129
OWYHEE RIVER .......................     99 ...........  116
EASTERN NEVADA .....................     93 ...........  131
LOWER COLORADO RIVER ...............     NA ...........   NA

4/RESERVOIRS...

MOST RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA MADE SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN STORAGE SINCE
LAST MONTH INCLUDING 75,000 ACRE-FEET IN LAKE TAHOE, 32,000 ACRE-
FEET IN TRUCKEE SYSTEM RESERVOIRS, AND 30,000 ACRE-FEET IN LAHONTAN.
THIS MONTH, EVEN RYE PATCH MADE CONSIDERABLE GAINS OF 18,000 ACRE-
FEET NEARLY TRIPLING LAST MONTHS STORAGE. THE UPPER WALKER
RESERVOIRS WERE THE ONLY EXCEPTION, WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN STORAGE
OVER THE MONTH DUE TO SEASONAL FILLING RESTRICTIONS. DESPITE THESE
GAINS, RESERVOIR STORAGE IS STILL MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. LAKE TAHOE IS
EXPECTED TO CREST THE NATURAL RIM IN EARLY APRIL AND ALLOW MINIMAL
FLOWS BELOW THE DAM. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THE LAKE WILL
EXCEED THE RIM SINCE THE FALL OF 2014.

BASIN                      PERCENT OF CAPACITY   PERCENT OF AVERAGE
LAKE TAHOE ........................   0 ................   0
TRUCKEE RIVER .....................  32 ................  50
CARSON RIVER ......................  29 ................  42
WALKER RIVER  ...................... 31 ................  46
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ..............  15 ................  30
OWYHEE RIVER ......................  64 ................  37
LOWER COLORADO RIVER ..............  38 ................  49

5/STREAMFLOW...

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR ALL OF NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AS OF
APRIL 1ST ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR APRIL TO JULY RUNOFF. WATER SUPPLY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR, WITH
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BELOW
AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EAST WALKER AS WELL AS
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE MONO BASIN. WHILE FORECASTS FROM THE NRCS AND
NWS HAVE CONVERGED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER IN THE SEASON, SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AND ARE DRIVEN BY DIFFERING FORECAST
METHODOLOGIES.

BELOW ARE FORECASTS FOR SELECTED RIVER POINTS ACROSS NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SOME CONTAIN BOTH THE NRCS STATISTICAL FORECAST
AND NWS FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
SYSTEM AT THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THE FORECASTS
DIFFER BASED ON FORECAST METHODOLOGY.

               PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL TO JULY STREAMFLOW
                MOST PROBABLE FORECAST AS OF APRIL 1 2016
                     (50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE)

BASIN                                NRCS     NWS
LAKE TAHOE INFLOW..................... 99 ... 114
TRUCKEE RIVER.........................106 ... 106  .. FARAD
CARSON RIVER ......................... 87 ... 100  .. CARSON CITY
WEST WALKER RIVER .................... 93 ... 107
EAST WALKER RIVER .................... 85 ...  64
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.................. 91 ...  NA  .. 4 SITE AVERAGE
UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER .................124 ... 124  .. PALISADE
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER .................101 ...  93  .. IMLAY
CLOVER VALLEY AND FRANKLIN RIVER .....100 ...  NA
SNAKE RIVER...........................134 ... 143@ .. SALMON FALLS CK
OWYHEE RIVER .........................109 ... 146@
EASTERN NEVADA....................... 118 ...  NA  .. 4 SITE AVERAGE
LAKE POWELL INFLOW   ................. 75 ...  74*
SUSAN RIVER........................... NA ... 134  .. SUSANVILLE (WATER YEAR)
MIDDLE FORK FEATHER RIVER............. NA ...  NA  .. PORTOLA (WATER YEAR)

NA - FORECAST EITHER NOT AVAILABLE OR NOT PRODUCED FOR THIS LOCATION
     AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT
*  - LAKE POWELL INFLOW NWS FORECAST PROVIDED BY CBRFC IN SALT LAKE
     CITY
@  - SNAKE AND OWYHEE RIVER NWS FORECASTS PRODUCED BY NWRFC IN
     PORTLAND

6/ DROUGHT STATUS... AS OF APRIL 5, 2016, THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT
MONITOR CLASSIFIED 63% OF NEVADA IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE. THIS
IS NO CHANGE FROM A MONTH AGO AND A 37% IMPROVEMENT FROM A YEAR AGO.
IN EASTERN NEVADA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF ELKO, WHITE PINE, LINCOLN,
AND CLARK COUNTY CONDITIONS ARE LESS SEVERE. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT IS CLASSIFIED FOR 23% OF THE STATE INCLUDING ALL OF STOREY,
CARSON CITY, DOUGLAS, LYON, MINERAL, CHURCHILL, AND PORTIONS OF
WASHOE, PERSHING, HUMBOLDT, LANDER, NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. THIS
IS A DECREASE OF 25% FROM LAST YEAR. IN CALIFORNIA 91% OF THE STATE
IS CLASSIFIED IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE, ONLY EXCLUDING THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THIS IS A DECREASE OF 7% FROM LAST
YEAR. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IS INDICATED IN 55% OF THE
STATE INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ALL OF ALPINE, AND MONO
COUNTIES, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PLUMAS, SIERRA, NEVADA, PLACER, EL
DORADO, AND LASSEN COUNTIES. MUCH OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
AREAS SAW SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT DUE TO INTENSE EARLY MARCH STORMS
AND RESERVOIR GAINS.

CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS FOR EARLY APRIL, DROUGHT CLASSIFICATIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWLY REDUCED, HOWEVER WATER SUPPLY DEFICITS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DUE TO LOW RESERVOIR STORAGE, DIMINISHED GROUND
WATER LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO FORESTS AND OTHER NATURAL
RESOURCES.

7/ LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

EARLY APRIL IS FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
MODERATE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. A WET EARLY APRIL WILL
LIKELY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS, BUT CAN
PRESERVE STORED WATER BY DELAYING BOTH RESIDENTIAL AND AGRICULTURAL
IRRIGATION AS WELL AS IMPROVING RANGE CONDITIONS. APRIL TEMPERATURES
HAVE A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE MONTH. LONG RANGE FORECASTS FOR
APRIL ALSO INDICATE SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF REGION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTHS OF MAY THROUGH JULY IS FOR INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA. SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE PROJECTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

8/ FOR MORE DETAILED WATER SUPPLY AND STREAMFLOW FORECAST
INFORMATION FOR NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITES. /NOTE...ALL LETTERS IN WEB SITE ADDRESSES ARE
LOWER CASE/...

NWS CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WATER.CA.GOV/

NEVADA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...
HTTP://WWW.NRCS.USDA.GOV/WPS/PORTAL/NRCS/MAIN/NV/SNOW/

CALIFORNIA DEPT. OF WATER RESOURCES... HTTP://CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MAPS...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...INCLUDING U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

 NVZ001>041-CAZ070>073-CAZ519>527-
150000-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 1430 PM PST
MON MAR 07 2016

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR FOR NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AS OF MARCH 7 2016...

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA
IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING...

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT FOR WESTERN NEVADA...THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND NORTHEAST NEVADA IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THIS SPRING...

ISSUED JOINTLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
CONSERVATION SERVICE...

1/SUMMARY...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS. THESE INCLUDE
SNOWPACK...SOIL MOISTURE AND UPSTREAM RESERVOIR STORAGE...ALONG WITH
AIR TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL DURING THE SNOW MELT PERIOD.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION THIS WATER YEAR AND SINCE THE SPRING OF 2015
HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THIS INCREASED PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED OFFSET THE PREVIOUS 4 YEARS
OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS BUT HAS LEFT MANY RESERVOIRS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME INCLUDE FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA...FAR
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MUCH OF MONO...INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

SNOWPACK IN NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN NEVADA REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY MARCH AS HEAVY SNOW IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY GAVE A BOOST TO
THESE BASIN. IN WESTERN AND NORTHWEST NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
OF CALIFORNIA SNOWPACK IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MARCH. THESE BASINS SAW EARLY SEASON SNOW AS WELL...BUT RECENT DRY
AND WARM WEATHER HAS RESULTED IN SOME MELTING OF THE LOW ELEVATION
AND SOUTH FACING SNOWPACK WITH ONLY A SMALL INCREASE NOTED IN MID-
FEBRUARY.

BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THE CHANCES FOR SNOW MELT FLOODING ARE
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE HUMBOLDT...CLOVER VALLEY...EASTERN
NEVADA...SNAKE AND OWYHEE BASINS.

IN THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE REGION SOUTH INTO INYO
COUNTY...FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW MELT FLOODING IS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. THE CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10% IN THESE
BASIN...HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FORECAST
PRECIPITATION.

MARCH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, MUCH
OF WHICH COULD FALL AS SNOW IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BASINS. IF
A WET COOL SPRING OCCURS, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SNOW
MELT FLOODING. THIS INCREASED RISK IS DRIVEN BY MAINTAINING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK LATER IN THE SEASON WHEN INCREASED SOLAR ENERGY
AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD COMBINE TO MELT SNOW RAPIDLY.

ALSO...THE CARSON BASIN HAS NO RESERVOIR STORAGE ABOVE LAHONTAN
RESERVOIR SO THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CARSON BASIN WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF SNOW MELT FLOODING THAN OTHER BASIN IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION IS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN MARCH AND APRIL. SOME DRAINAGES IN INYO COUNTY
WILL HAVE INCREASED RISK OF SNOW MELT FLOODING AS WELL DO TO LIMITED
STORAGE IF PRECIPITATION IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT TWO MONTHS.


2/SUMMARY...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...

PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR TOABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE WATER YEAR ON OCTOBER
1, 2015. AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST WATER YEAR TO DATE PRECIPITATION
RELATIVE TO AVERAGE INCLUDE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS LOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH SNOTEL
SITES REPORTING NEAR 30% OF AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH IN MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS.

THE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM FEBRUARY MINIMIZED TYPICAL SNOWPACK
ACCUMULATION AND LED TO SOME EARLY MELT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ON
SUN EXPOSED ASPECTS, RESULTING IN SOME DECREASES IN WATER SUPPLY
FORECASTS. THIS EARLY MELT ALSO HELPED RAISED MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WHILE FEBRUARY WAS A DISAPPOINTING MONTH IN TERMS OF WATER SUPPLY
FOR THE AREA, EARLY MARCH LOOKS PROMISING WITH A SERIES OF
POTENTIALLY WET STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY IMPROVE WATER SUPPLY
CONDITIONS.  AS OF MARCH 7TH, THE MARCH 4TH -7TH SNOW AND RAIN EVENT
HAD GREATER ACCUMULATIONS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SIERRA CREST, BUT
DID ADD SIGNIFICANT SWE TO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SIERRA CREST, WITH INCREASES IN SWE RANGING FROM 2 TO 6" AT
THESE SITES.


3/SNOWPACK...

SNOWPACK, AS OF MARCH 1ST, ARE NEAR AVERAGE, RANGING FROM 85% ON THE
TRUCKEE BASIN TO A HIGH OF 123% FOR THE SNAKE RIVER BASIN OF
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. ALL BASINS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA ARE
ABOVE AVERAGE.


ON AVERAGE PEAK BASIN SNOWPACK OCCURS BETWEEN MID-MARCH AND EARLY
APRIL, LEAVING ONLY A FEW WEEKS OF ACCUMULATION TO THE SNOW SEASON
REMAINING.  CURRENTLY THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, OWYHEE, SNAKE AND
UPPER HUMBOLDT ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL ANNUAL PEAK.
OTHER BASINS STILL NEED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO REACH THEIR
NORMAL PEAK.  SNOWPACKS GAINED LITTLE ACCUMULATION DURING FEBRUARY,
AND LOW ELEVATION STATIONS GENERALLY REPORTED REDUCTION IN SNOWPACK
DURING THE MONTH. CONSOLIDATION OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOWPACKS DURING
THE MONTH AND MINOR SNOWMELT INDICATE THAT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
WILL BE NEEDED TO GET SNOWMELT ACTIVE WHEN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN.

                              MARCH 1 2016
BASIN                    PERCENT OF MEDIAN
LAKE TAHOE ........................    97
TRUCKEE RIVER .....................    85
CARSON RIVER ......................    92
WALKER RIVER ......................    92
NORTHERN GREAT ....................   106
UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER ..............   115
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ..............   110
CLOVER VALLEY & FRANKLIN RIVER ....   116
SNAKE RIVER .......................   123
OWYHEE RIVER ......................   119
EASTERN NEVADA ....................   112
LOWER COLORADO RIVER ..............   NA


4/PRECIPITATION...

CURRENT WATER YEAR-TO-DATE PRECIPITATION AS OF MARCH 1ST IS NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEVADA. BASINS DRAINING TO THE EAST SLOPE OF
THE SIERRA ARE NEAR AVERAGE AND CONDITIONS GET PROGRESSIVELY WETTER
TO THE EAST WITH THE FAR EASTERN NEVADA AREA AT 140%.  WATER YEAR-TO-
DATE NUMBERS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST MONTH DUE TO A DRY
FEBRUARY THROUGH THE REGION. EACH BASIN REPORTED MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION THIS FEBRUARY, RANGING FROM A HIGH OF 61% ON
THE SNAKE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TO A LOW OF 22% ON THE
LOWER HUMBOLDT.

                                                 WATER YEAR 2016
                                    FEB 2015    /THROUGH 02/29/2016/
BASIN                              PCT OF AVE        PCT OF AVE
LAKE TAHOE .........................    31 ...........   108
TRUCKEE RIVER ......................    29 ...........    97
CARSON RIVER .......................    30 ...........   100
WALKER RIVER .......................    34 ...........   100
NORTHERN GREAT .....................    29 ...........   114
UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER ...............    40 ...........   124
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ...............    22 ...........   120
CLOVER VALLEY AND FRANKLIN RIVER ...    32 ...........   130
SNAKE RIVER ........................    61 ...........   129
OWYHEE RIVER .......................    45 ...........   120
EASTERN NEVADA .....................    40 ...........   142
LOWER COLORADO RIVER ...............    NA  ...........   NA


5/RESERVOIRS...

MOST RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA DID MAKE SMALL GAINS IN STORAGE SINCE
LAST MONTH INCLUDING 31,500 ACRE-FEET IN LAKE TAHOE AND OTHER
TRUCKEE SYSTEM RESERVOIRS, 29,000 ACRE-FEET IN LAHONTAN (DOUBLING
STORAGE SINCE LAST MONTH), AND 8,700 ACRE-FEET IN THE UPPER WALKER
RESERVOIRS. DESPITE THESE GAINS, RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA ARE STILL
WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOTS OF ROOM TO FILL. FOR EXAMPLE, ON MARCH
1ST LAKE TAHOE MEASURED 0.76 FEET OR 92,000 ACRE-FEET BELOW THE
NATURAL RIM WITH NEARLY 7 VERTICAL FEET NEEDED TO REACH CAPACITY.
RYE PATCH RESERVOIR ON THE LOWER HUMBOLDT GAINED ONLY 300 ACRE-FEET
IN FEBRUARY AND REMAINS AT 6% OF CAPACITY.  THESE VERY MODEST GAINS
AT RYE PATCH CAME DESPITE THE RETURN OF NEAR AVERAGE FLOWS AT IMLAY
OVER THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.  THIS LIKELY INDICATES LOSSES OF
WATER TO SATISFY BANK STORAGE AFTER PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW
RESERVOIR LEVELS.

BASIN                      PERCENT OF CAPACITY   PERCENT OF AVERAGE
LAKE TAHOE ........................   0 ................   0
TRUCKEE RIVER .....................  21 ................  35
CARSON RIVER ......................  18 ................  32
WALKER RIVER  ...................... 31 ................  54
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ..............   6 ................  13
OWYHEE RIVER ......................  18 ................  37
LOWER COLORADO RIVER ..............  40 ................  50


6/STREAMFLOW...

STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR ALL OF NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AS OF
MARCH 1ST ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR APRIL TO JULY RUNOFF. WATER SUPPLY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL
YEARS, AND ARE LESS VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS.  IN OTHER WORDS THE CHANCES OF HAVING AN EXCEPTIONAL WET
OR DRY RUNOFF SEASON ARE DECREASING.

A MID FEBRUARY WARM PERIOD WITH SOME RAIN CAUSED SIGNIFICANT VALLEY
AND LOW ELEVATION SNOWMELT, AND RAISED RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH
MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEVADA.  THIS INCLUDED RETURNING FLOW TO THE
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER AND IS CERTAINLY AN ENCOUAGING SIGN FOR THE
AREA AFTER FOUR YEARS OF DROUGHT, AND THAT THE AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE SNOWPACK MAY RESULT IN NEAR AVERAGE STREAMFLOW RATHER THAN
BEING LOST TO LOW RUNOFF EFFICIENCY.

BELOW ARE FORECASTS FOR SELECTED RIVER POINTS ACROSS NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA. SOME CONTAIN BOTH THE NRCS STATISTICAL FORECAST
AND NWS FORECAST PROVIDED BY THE ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
SYSTEM AT THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THE FORECASTS
DIFFER BASED ON FORECAST METHODOLOGY.

                PERCENT OF AVERAGE APRIL TO JULY STREAMFLOW
                MOST PROBABLE FORECAST AS OF MARCH 1 2016
                     (50 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDANCE)

BASIN                                NRCS     NWS
LAKE TAHOE INFLOW..................... 95 ... 104
TRUCKEE RIVER......................... 92 ... 104  .. FARAD
CARSON RIVER .........................101 ... 112  .. CARSON CITY
WEST WALKER RIVER .................... 93 ... 104
EAST WALKER RIVER ....................101 ...  91
NORTHERN GREAT ....................... 93 ...  NA  .. 4 SITE AVERAGE
UPPER HUMBOLDT RIVER .................107 ... 110  .. PALISADE
LOWER HUMBOLDT RIVER ................. 88 ... 108  .. IMLAY
CLOVER VALLEY AND FRANKLIN RIVER .....101 ...  NA
SNAKE RIVER...........................125 ...  94@ .. SALMON FALLS CK
OWYHEE RIVER .........................141 ...  98@
EASTERN NEVADA....................... 109 ...  NA  .. 4 SITE AVERAGE
LAKE POWELL INFLOW   ................. 77 ...  80*
SUSAN RIVER........................... NA ...  108  .. SUSANVILLE (WATER YEAR)
MIDDLE FORK FEATHER RIVER............. NA ...  87  .. PORTOLA (WATER YEAR)

NA - FORECAST EITHER NOT AVAILABLE OR NOT PRODUCED FOR THIS LOCATION
     AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT
*  - LAKE POWELL INFLOW NWS FORECAST PROVIDED BY CBRFC IN SALT LAKE CITY
@  - SNAKE AND OWYHEE RIVER NWS FORECASTS PRODUCED BY NWRFC IN
     PORTLAND


7/ DROUGHT STATUS...

AS OF MARCH 1, 2016, THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIED
63% OF NEVADA IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT
FROM 72% A MONTH AGO AND 100% A YEAR AGO. IN EASTERN NEVADA,
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF ELKO, WHITE PINE, LINCOLN, AND CLARK COUNTY
CONDITIONS ARE LESS SEVERE. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IS
CLASSIFIED FOR 23% OF THE STATE INCLUDING ALL OF STOREY, CARSON
CITY, DOUGLAS, LYON, MINERAL, CHURCHILL, AND PORTIONS OF WASHOE,
PERSHING, HUMBOLDT, LANDER, NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. THIS IS A
DECREASE OF 25% FROM LAST YEAR. IN CALIFORNIA 95% OF THE STATE IS
CLASSIFIED IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE ONLY EXCLUDING EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO, RIVERSIDE, AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES, AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES A DECREASE OF 3%
FROM LAST YEAR.
EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IS INDICATED IN 61% OF THE STATE
INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO ALL OF PLUMAS, SIERRA, NEVADA, PLACER,
EL DORADO, ALPINE, AND MONO COUNTIES, AND MOST OF LASSEN COUNTY.
MOST OF MODOC COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN LASSEN COUNTRY INDICATED
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM LAST MONTH.

CONSIDERING THE CURRENT SNOWPACK AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND
FORECASTS FOR EARLY MARCH, DROUGHT CLASSIFICATIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWLY REDUCED, HOWEVER WATER SUPPLY DEFICITS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DUE TO EXTREMELY LOW RESERVOIR STORAGE,
DIMINISHED GROUND WATER LEVELS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO FORESTS AND
OTHER NATURAL RESOURCES.


8/ LONG RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

EARLY MARCH IS FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF MODERATELY
STRONG STORMS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REVERSE
FEBRUARYS NEAR FLAT LINE IN SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION. MARCH
TEMPERATURES HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LONG RANGE FORECASTS FOR MARCH INDICATE
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF
REGION EXCEPT FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WHICH HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTHS OF APRIL THROUGH JUNE IS FOR INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION,WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA, AND WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES PROJECTED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE PROJECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH HAVE EQUAL CHANCES.


9/ FOR MORE DETAILED WATER SUPPLY AND STREAMFLOW FORECAST
INFORMATION FOR NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FOLLOWING WEB SITES. /NOTE...ALL LETTERS IN WEB SITE ADDRESSES ARE
LOWER CASE/...

NWS CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY.PHP

NEVADA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...
HTTP://WWW.NV.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/

CALIFORNIA DEPT. OF WATER RESOURCES... HTTP://CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MAPS...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...INCLUDING U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://DROUGHT.GOV/



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