Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FGUS71 KRLX 281651
ESFRLX
KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-041700-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1251 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...The flood potential is expected to be near normal for the next
two weeks...

This serves as the last winter/spring outlook for this season.

The coverage area of this outlook is limited to just the states
of Ohio and Kentucky.

A normal flood potential means at least some flooding is
possible. An above normal flood potential means more widespread
flooding is possible with some points possibly reaching moderate
or major flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include:
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snowpack, soil moisture, and
expected precipitation.

...Precipitation...
Precipitation amounts over the past two weeks were below normal
across the Little Sandy and lower Scioto river basins with 25 to
50 percent of normal amounts observed. Further north into the
Muskingum and Hocking basins, amounts were 125 to 150 percent of
normal amounts.

...Soil Moisture Conditions...
Soil moisture is normal to above normal.

...Snow Cover and Snow Water Equivalent...
There is no snow cover across the area.

...Reservoir Capacity...
Reservoirs are at winter pools with ample storage available.

...River Ice...
River ice is non existent.

...Streamflow Conditions...
Streamflows are generally slightly below normal. The Ohio River
is running below normal for flows on the order of 50 percent from
Willow Island down to Greenup Locks.

...The Hydrologic Outlook through the next two weeks...
A transition to a wet and warm pattern will commence for the
first week of April, as a wavy frontal boundary develops with
rounds of rain and thunderstorms. As such, the potential exists
for small stream and creek flooding within the Muskingum and
Little Muskingum watersheds. Elevated levels along the Hocking and
Muskingum Rivers can be expected as well. Eventually, the Ohio
River may experience strong rises, given the expected rainfall
amounts in the upper drainages.

A drier and cooler pattern is forecast to take hold into the
second week of April.

...Ensemble River Forecasts...
There is no strong signal of broad scale flood potential over the
next two weeks.

Real-time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across eastern Kentucky and southeast Ohio,
can be found at:

www.water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=rlx

$$


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