Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 051516
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
1030 AM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
APRIL...WHILE WE EXPECT BELOW NORMAL CHANCES FOR FLOODING ON THE
BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ON THE SAVANNAH BASIN.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION.

RECENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS HELPED TO BRING SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

FOR CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR
NORMAL. SHORT TERM CHANCES FOR RAINFALL LOOK NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA OVER THE NEXT 10
DAYS.  THE EASTERN HALF IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL.  MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE LEANS TOWARDS DRIER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER THROUGH JANUARY.  OVERALL...THE RELATIVE RISK IS NEAR
NORMAL.

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS AS OF JANUARY 4TH ARE MIXED.  THE HEADWATERS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND VIRGINIA REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST...CONDITIONS ARE MORE NORMAL.

PAST PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON
SERFC MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL IN
SOUTH VIRGINIA AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.   THIS IS TYPICALLY A WET
TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AREA.

RESERVOIRS...MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE NEAR THEIR
TARGET POOLS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS ALONG THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT
THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  THE TWO MAIN CORPS
RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME YEAR.   HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL HAS AT LEAST STOPPED
THE POOLS FROM DROPPING.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STORM
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ONCE OR TWICE A WEEK. THE LATEST
CPC 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS INDICATING DRIER THAN NORMAL.


AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE WINTER INTO
EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK...BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL AS YOU APPROACH THE HEADWATERS/MOUNTAINS
AREA. THIS IS BASED ON CPC CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS AND THE CURRENT
LA NINA ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE OTHER FACTORS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY..NORMAL FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

HAMILL



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