Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 132058
ESGAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

FEBRUARY 13, 2018

                        FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
                                ARIZONA

The flood potential for Arizona Rivers and streams is not high at
this time.

Because the nature of flooding in Arizona is associated with rainfall
events versus snow melt it`s difficult to determine with much certainty
the flood threat over a season. Existing streamflow, soil, and snowpack
conditions are analyzed for their potential contribution to streamflow
levels during future rainfall events.

Seasonal October-January precipitation was 15 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, the Gila Basin and for the Little Colorado
Basin. January precipitation was 50 percent of average in the Salt-Verde
River Basin, 25 percent in the Gila River Basin, and 50 percent of
average in the Little Colorado Basin.

February 1st snowpack was 20 percent of average in the Salt-Verde Basin,
near 25 percent of average in the headwaters of the Little Colorado Basin.
Snowpack conditions were near 15 percent of average in the upper Gila
drainage.

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the
beginning of the water year. February through May runoff volumes
are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Due to the below average soil moisture conditions, below average
snow water equivalents and the presence of a La Nina year, the
flood potential for Arizona is not high at this time.

CBRFC

NNNN

$$




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