Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FGUS61 KTAR 161350 CCA
ESGTAR

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
950 AM EST THU MAR 16 2017

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /6/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR INTERIOR MAINE...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

THE WINTER/SPRING POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEAST...EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
REGION FROM NORTH OF WATERTOWN TO MESSINA.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...NORTHERN VERMONT
...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL OR HAS
PASSED ELSEWHERE.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

COLDER THAN NORMAL DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (-2F TO -6F) AND LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS CHARACTERIZED THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO OCCURRED
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MARCH 1ST TO MARCH 14TH 2017 PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE RANGED
FROM -0.50 INCH TO AROUND NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND TO BANGOR MAINE. ELSEWHERE MARCH 1ST TO
MARCH 14TH 2017 PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE RANGED FROM 0.25 INCH
TO 1.00 INCH ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WERE
FOUND NEAR CARIBOU MAINE AND IN MOST OF NEW YORK STATE.

THE MARCH PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ARE SOMEWHAT DECEIVING IN THAT
MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH PRECIPITATION TOTALS OCCURRED ON THE
14TH. TWO OTHER PRECIPITATION EVENTS OF NOTE OCCURRED. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM CROSSED THE REGION ON THE 7TH AND 8TH. THIS IMPACTED MOSTLY
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN BASINS. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKED SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND ON THE 10TH AND BROUGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BASINS.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH TRACKED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON
MARCH 14TH...BROUGHT WIDESPREAD 0.75 TO 2.00 LIQUID EQUIVALENTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0.50 INCH OR LESS
WERE FOUND IN WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED BRING
MARCH 2017 TOTALS BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SNOW
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 FEET FROM INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE. THE
HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CATSKILL AND
ADIRONDACK REGIONS. THE LOWEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 FOOT WERE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND FAR WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.

LOOKING AHEAD...OVERALL WE SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE JET STREAM
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. WE BELIEVE THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. A
LONG WAVE TROUGH FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT BUT REMAIN
PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE PACIFIC JET STREAM LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSIVE AS THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN (PNA) TELECONNECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AND
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) REMAINS POSITIVE. QUESTIONS
REMAIN REGARDING THE TIMING AND PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AS
WELL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.

IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING CURRENTLY
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE EAST AND
REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING MARCH 18TH.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY THE
19TH. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS A WIDESPREAD QPF OF 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH
WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND BASINS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL QPF IS POSSIBLE IF THE LOW INTENSIFIES CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

MILDER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MARCH 20TH BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES TUESDAY MARCH 21ST. QPF IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LIMITED AND
MOSTLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN. COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED MIDWEEK.  THE NEXT LOW
SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES AND SHOULD REACH THE REGION
SOMETIME BETWEEN THE 24TH TO THE 26TH. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN PHASING OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS.

THUS WITH A FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION THREATS POSSIBLE...WE BELIEVE THAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
(CPC) 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 21ST THROUGH MARCH 29TH
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE SNOWPACK HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO THE MARCH 14TH SNOWSTORM. SNOW COVER INCREASED TO 99 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS OF 15 MARCH 2017. THIS CONTRASTS SNOW COVER
PERCENTAGE FROM ABOUT TWO WEEKS AGO WHEN SNOW COVER ENCOMPASSED 53
PERCENT OF THE REGION.

...NEW YORK STATE...

SNOW COVER HAS INCREASED MOSTLY DUE TO THE MARCH 14TH COASTAL LOW
EVENT.

SNOW DEPTHS AS OF MARCH 15TH RANGE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND LONG ISLAND AND 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.25 INCH TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND LONG ISLAND...AND AROUND 2
INCHES ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGIONS...SNOW
DEPTHS INCREASE FROM ONE TO TWO FEET...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS FOUND
ACROSS THE PEAKS. THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS WERE FOUND AT EAST JEWITT
26 INCHES...NORWICH 28 INCHES AND 34 INCHES 6SW MARYLAND. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION. THESE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

HEADING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 10
TO 20 INCHES FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 390 AND POINTS EAST. THE HIGHEST
SNOW DEPTHS WERE FOUND IN AUBURN NEW YORK. SNOW DEPTHS BEGIN TO DROP
OFF TO 6 TO 16 INCHES IN THE BUFFALO AREA. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE
THE BUFFALO AREA WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

EXAMINING THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WE NOTE SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM
10 TO 20 INCHES AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.
THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE ADIRONDACKS...SNOW DEPTHS HAVE INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET...BUT LOCALLY UP
TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS WERE 32
INCHES AT INDIAN LAKE AND 34 INCHES AT SARANAC LAKE. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SLOPES AND
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
FROM 4 TO 5 INCHES WERE FOUND AT EAST CANADA CREEK...INDIAN
LAKE...SACANDAGA AT HOPE...NEWCOMB AND RIVERBANK. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

HEADING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK STATE...
SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 INCHES. THE HIGHER DEPTHS
ARE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF MESSINA AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS VARY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK STATE...SNOW
DEPTHS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SNOW COVER NOW ENCOMPASSES MOST OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS. PATCHY SNOW COVER REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS.

IN CONNECTICUT...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AROUND 0.5 INCH AT YANTIC TO 2.1 INCHES
ALONG THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARRIFVILLE AND UNIONVILLE.
THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

IN RHODE ISLAND...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.10 INCH TO 0.50 INCH SOUTH AND 0.50
TO 1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW COVER EXISTS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 4 TO 7
INCHES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE BOSTON AREA AND SOUTH SHORE LOCATIONS.
SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 7 TO 14 INCHES FROM METROWEST INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY AND THE LOWER MERRIMACK VALLEY REGION. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE
FURTHER TO 9 TO 16 INCHES FROM THE PIONEER VALLEY TO THE BERKSHIRES.
LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS UP TO 20 INCHES ARE FOUND IN
PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 2.00 INCHES FROM THE
GREATER BOSTON AREA...THE LOWER MERRIMACK REGION AND INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND IN WORCESTER
COUNTY AND NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. SNOW EQUIVALENTS OF LESS
THAN 0.50 INCH ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THESE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS RANGE FROM 1.5
TO 3 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES AT ROWE. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

...VERMONT...

SNOW COVER HAS INCREASED MOSTLY DUE TO THE RECENT MARCH 14TH COASTAL
LOW EVENT.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 22
INCHES. THE LOWEST SNOW DEPTH WAS FOUND AT MONTPELIER AND THE
HIGHEST SNOW DEPTH NEAR LINCOLN. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM
1.25 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT RANGE FROM 14 TO 22 INCHES...
EXCEPT 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGHEST SNOW
DEPTH OF 33 INCHES WAS FOUND AT LANDGROVE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 2 INCHES...EXCEPT 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS SOME OF
THE PEAKS. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 5 INCHES WAS NOTED
AT HARRIMAN RESERVOIR IN WHITTINGHAM. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE PEAKS.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT RANGE FROM 12
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID AND UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
UP TO 20 INCHES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE LOCALIZED 2 TO 3.5 FOOT SNOW DEPTHS ARE
NOTED. THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED ARE 33 INCHES AT LUNENBURG
AND 43 INCHES AT WALDEN. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE PEAKS.


...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTHS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE STATE MOSTLY DUE TO THE MARCH
14TH COASTAL LOW EVENT.

SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 10 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
INCLUDING THE LOWER TO MID MERRIMACK VALLEY REGION AND THE
MONADNOCKS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH LOCALIZED 2.5 TO 3 INCH EQUIVALENTS
ACROSS THE MONADNOCKS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS OF 2 FEET AT NORTH CONWAY AND
BERLIN. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS ARE FOUND NEAR THE PEAKS. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS FROM 8 TO 10 INCHES
ARE FOUND ALONG THE AMMONOOSUC RIVER AT BETHLEHEM JUNCTION AND THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE
FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

...MAINE...

SNOW COVER HAS INCREASED FURTHER DUE TO THE MARCH 14TH COASTAL LOW
EVENT.

SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 8 TO 20 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...18 TO 24
INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTHS AS OF MARCH 14TH WERE 38 INCHES
AT EUSTIS...36 INCHES AT FARMINGTON AND BRIDGETON AND 32 INCHES AT
MOOSEHEAD.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE COAST...4
TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...AND 7 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS AS OF MARCH 15TH WERE FOUND ALONG THE FISH RIVER AT FORT
KENT...NINE MILE BRIDGE ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER...KENNEBEC RIVER
AT THE FORKS AND AT BINGHAM. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE EXCEPT CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE COAST.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...DUE TO MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 11 MARCH 2017 SHOWS
ONLY AREAS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT...EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. MOIST CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WESTERN NEW YORK...THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE
TUG HILL REGION.

THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK IN NORTHEAST VERMONT FOR
AVAILABLE RECHARGE THIS SPRING. WE ARE PRIMARILY CONCERNED FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CONNECTICUT REGARDING THE ONGOING DROUGHT. THE PALMER
DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX TYPICALLY LOOKS AT CONDITIONS OVER THE RANGE
OF WEEKS TO MONTHS RATHER THAN DAYS.

EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING LEVELS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK STATE COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...

IN NEW YORK STATE...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS VARY AND ARE MOSTLY AT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...THE CATSKILLS AND THE ADIRONDACK
REGIONS. ELSEWHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE DECREASED A BIT DUE TO MORE LIMITED RUNOFF.
THIS HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO MORE RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LESS FREQUENT PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL SNOW
COVER. THE RECENT SNOWPACK ADDITION WILL HELP GRADUALLY ASSIST WITH
SOME RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

GRIFFIN NEW YORK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS HAD A
GROUNDWATER LEVEL BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE AS OF 14
MARCH 2017. MEANWHILE SUNY ALBANY WAS WITHIN ITS LOWEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL AS OF 14 MARCH 2017.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS VARY AND ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED A BIT DUE TO MORE
LIMITED RUNOFF. THIS HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO MORE RECENT COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LESS FREQUENT PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL
SNOW COVER. THE RECENT SNOWPACK ADDITION AND ANTICIPATED RUNOFF WILL
GRADUALLY ASSIST IN SOME RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

WENHAM MASSACHUSETTS HAD A MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL WITHIN THE 75TH
TO 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE AS OF 14 MARCH 2017. MEANWHILE NEWTOWN
CONNECTICUT HAD A MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL BETWEEN THE LOWEST MEDIAN
AND 10TH PERCENTILE. LAKEVILLE MASSACHUSETTS HAD A MEDIAN GROUNDWATER
LEVEL BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE.

THE FROST LEVEL WITHIN THE SOIL AT NORTON MASSACHUSETTS 14 MARCH
2017 WAS 5 INCHES.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WERE
NEAR NORMAL AS OF 14 MARCH 2017. GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN MAINE WERE
GENERALLY AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN SOUTHWESTERN
MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS OF 14 MARCH 2017. HOWEVER THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AVAILABLE
FOR RECHARGE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

FORT KENT MAINE HAD A MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL WITHIN THE 75TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE AS OF 14 MARCH 2017. MEANWHILE BERLIN NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEAR THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER HAD A MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL BETWEEN
THE LOWEST MEDIAN AND 10TH PERCENTILE.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE RESERVOIRS ACROSS THE REGION...

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...HAD RISEN TO 90.3
PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF 15 MARCH 2017. THIS IS 0.1 PERCENT BELOW
THE CURRENT NORMAL SUPPLY LEVEL. THIS IS ABOUT A 22 PERCENT
IMPROVEMENT SINCE DECEMBER 2016...AND A 1.8 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT
SINCE MARCH 1ST 2017.

IN RHODE ISLAND...THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR POOL LEVEL WAS 284.72 FT AS
OF 20Z MARCH 15 2017. THIS LEVEL IS AROUND 0.7 FT ABOVE THE SPILLWAY
WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN MAINE...THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN RESERVOIRS WERE
INDICATING AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE RESERVOIRS WITHIN THE
ANDROSCOGGIN BASIN ARE 54.1 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 21.3 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...THE CONNECTICUT LAKES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT
THE END OF FEBRUARY AT 191 PERCENT. FIRST LAKE AND LAKE FRANCIS WERE
169 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WINNIPESAUKEE WAS 87 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT THE
END OF FEBRUARY.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR LEVEL WAS 81.1 PERCENT OF
CAPACITY AS OF 01 MARCH 2017 WHICH INDICATES A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
THIS LEVEL IS CURRENTLY WITHIN THE NORMAL OPERATING RANGE. THE
WACHUSETT RESERVOIR LEVEL WAS 90.9 PERCENT OF CAPACITY AS OF 01
MARCH 2017.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH.

IN NEW YORK STATE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AS OF 15 MARCH 2017 HAVE
GENERALLY DECREASED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND LESS FREQUENT PRECIPITATION LIMITING RUNOFF.

STREAMFLOWS VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE FOUND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS WHERE SOME DEEPER SNOW
COVER RESIDES.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AS OF 15 MARCH 2017
HAVE DECREASED AND ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
DUE TO MORE LIMITED RUNOFF. HOWEVER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
ARE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WHERE COMBINED RECENT SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL HAVE HELPED
PRODUCE MORE RUNOFF.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AS OF 15 MARCH 2017
HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THIS DUE TO
MORE LIMITED RUNOFF WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE FIRST
HALF OF MARCH. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A GOOD SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
STREAMFLOWS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE LIMITED RUNOFF ALONG WITH LESS
DURATION OF SNOWPACK AVAILABLE FOR RECHARGE.

ICE COVERAGE AND ICE THICKNESSES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST TWO
WEEKS IN UPSTATE NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO THE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISHED SNOW COVER UNTIL RECENTLY.

WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE INCLUDING THE FINGER LAKES REGION
RIVERS AND CREEKS NOW HAVE AT LEAST PARTIAL ICE COVERAGE AS OF 15
MARCH 2017.

IN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE
ICE AFFECTED INCLUDING THE UPPER REACHES OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS OF
15 MARCH 2017.

PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC RIVER IN THE BERKSHIRES AND HOOSIC RIVER
IN EASTERN NEW YORK ARE PARTIALLY ICE AFFECTED AS OF 15 MARCH 2017.
ESOPUS...ROUNDOUT AND WAPPINGER CREEKS WERE ALSO ICE AFFECTED.

MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN ICE AFFECTED IN NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND IN MAINE. SOME ICE ALSO EXISTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ICE THICKNESSES ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE AROUND 6 INCHES ACROSS
SOME OF THE ADIRONDACK REGION OF NEW YORK STATE AND ALSO IN VERMONT.
ICE THICKNESSES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 6 INCHES...EXCEPT AROUND 12 INCHES NEAR WOODSTOCK. ICE
THICKNESSES IN MAINE ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS EXCEPT 16 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. THE ICE THICKNESSES IN MAINE ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

AN ICE JAM DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING MARCH 15TH.
SOME FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN MALONE ALONG THE SALMON RIVER.
ANOTHER FREEZE UP ICE JAM WAS CITED IN PLACE ALONG THE WILLIAMS
RIVER IN ROCKINGHAM VERMONT. THIS IS A TRIBUTARY TO THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER.

THERE WAS ALSO A SMALL ICE JAM REPORTED IN PLACE ON THE SAINT
JOHN RIVER NEAR THE ALLAGASH A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.

THERE IS AN ICE JAM IN PLACE ON THE SANDY RIVER NEAR DEVILS ELBOW
BETWEEN FARMINGTON AND STRONG MAINE. THE CARRABASSETT RIVER ALSO IS
REPORTED TO HAVE AN ICE JAM IN PLACE NEAR THE GAGING STATION.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS...ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY
OR HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SOME AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG WITH A NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THREAT. WE FEEL THERE IS A MORE PRONOUNCED
LONGER TERM THREAT IF THE DEEP SNOWPACK LINGERS INTO LATE MARCH OR
APRIL. SOME RUNOFF WILL OCCUR DUE TO MELT AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE
INCREASES.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT
CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS THIS REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG WITH NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION THREAT. WE FEEL THERE IS A MORE PRONOUNCED
LONGER TERM THREAT IF THE SNOWPACK LINGERS INTO LATE MARCH OR APRIL.
SOME RUNOFF WILL OCCUR DUE TO MELT AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE INCREASES.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND IN SOUTHERN MAINE.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED CLOSER TO
NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THREAT. STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THESE AREAS. WE FEEL THERE IS A MORE PRONOUNCED LONGER TERM THREAT
IF THE SNOWPACK LINGERS INTO LATE MARCH OR APRIL. SOME RUNOFF WILL
OCCUR DUE TO MELT AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE INCREASES.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND THE BUFFALO AREA.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE BUFFALO AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THREAT. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE MOIST ACROSS THESE AREAS. WE FEEL
THAT THERE IS SOME PRONOUNCED LONGER TERM THREAT IF THE SNOWPACK
LINGERS LATE MARCH OR APRIL. SOME RUNOFF WILL OCCUR DUE TO MELT AS
THE MARCH SUN ANGLE INCREASES.

THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS...NEAR NORMAL FROM SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG
WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THREAT. WE FEEL THAT THERE IS SOME
PRONOUNCED LONGER TERM THREAT IF THE SNOWPACK LINGERS INTO LATE
MARCH OR APRIL. SOME RUNOFF WILL OCCUR DUE TO MELT AS THE MARCH SUN
ANGLE INCREASES. CURRENT SNOW COVER IS LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY ADDITIONAL SNOW COVER AND
EVENTUAL RUNOFF.

THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO THE NEW
YORK CITY AREA...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN
CATSKILLS.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THESE AREAS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THREAT. WE FEEL THAT THERE IS SOME MORE PRONOUNCED
LONGER TERM THREAT IF THE SNOWPACK LINGERS INTO LATE MARCH OR APRIL.
SOME RUNOFF WILL OCCUR DUE TO MELT AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE INCREASES.
CURRENT SNOW COVER IS MORE LIMITED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK...BUT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM MAY ADDITIONAL SNOW COVER AND EVENTUAL
RUNOFF.

THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK
STATE.

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF WATERTOWN TO MESSINA NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS ALONG
WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION THREAT. SOME RUNOFF WILL OCCUR DUE TO
MELT AS THE MARCH SUN ANGLE INCREASES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS...IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INCLUDING
THE ADIRONDACK REGION AND SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...
NORTHERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

ICE COVERAGE AND ICE THICKNESSES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THESE AREA
DUE TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY PERSISTENT COLD THE
FIRST HALF OF MARCH. WE ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE LONGER THE
ICE REMAINS LATER INTO MARCH AND APRIL...THE GREATER THE POTENTIAL
THREAT MAY BE. FREEZE UP ICE JAMS AND OTHER ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND WILL BE MONITORED. FUTURE ICE FORMATION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS...HAS PASSED FOR MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SOME PARTIAL ICE COVERAGE HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK...THE UPPER REACHES OF THE HUDSON RIVER...THE
CATSKILLS...THE BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE ALTHOUGH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WE DO NOT EXPECT
ENOUGH ICE TO FORM TO CREATE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE AS THE MARCH SUN
ANGLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 30 MARCH 2017.

END/STRAUSS
$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.