Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 311756
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER, WILMINGTON OH
200pm EDT Thursday, July 31, 2014

    THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR August

...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

The predominant weather pattern will support near normal streamflows
throughout much of the Ohio River Basin. Slightly above normal stream flows
will be possible in the Lake Erie drainage near Cleveland as well as
some reaches of the Allegheny River basin. Low flow conditions will
persist in the New River basin and Kanawha River in the southeast
drainage of the Ohio Valley as a continuation of dry weather is
expected.
.....................................................................

...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD and DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

Rainfall is expected to be sufficient enough during August in the
Ohio River Basin/Lake Erie drainage including the southeast part of
the basin to avoid drought conditions. Flood potential will be near
normal.
.....................................................................

...August HYDROLOGICAL and METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...

Rainfall was below normal over most of the Ohio Valley. Pockets of above
normal precipitation occurred...especially across the Lake Erie drainage
near Cleveland as well as western Pennsylvania.

Hydrologically...flooding did not occur in the Ohio River Basin. Crests reached
action stage levels.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

Soils are normally moist for summer...except in the New River basin of
the Kanawha watershed where below normal rainfall for an extended
period(>90 days) have produced dry soil conditions.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

Near normal streamflows currently exist over much of the Ohio River
Basin...above normal flows in the Lake Erie drainage near Cleveland as
well as parts of the Allegheny watershed...and below normal flows in the
New River Basin.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR August...

ARCTIC OSCILLATION
negative = below normal rainfall

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
neutral = normal rainfall

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
positive = below normal rainfall

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
developing weak to moderate El Nino = above normal rainfall in lower OH Valley,
normal rainfall in upper OH Valley

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

...TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...

El Nino is still forecast to develop by late summer or early autumn...but
is now expected to be weaker than originally thought 3 months ago.
NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino Watch. The
impacts on atmospheric circulation during the warm season are less
than during the cool season. Other atmospheric teleconnections are
suggesting near normal streamflows with scattered above normal streamflows
in the northeast part of the basin.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$
Wheeler



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