Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 042237
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

MARCH 4, 2015

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF MARCH 4 2015:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-February precipitation was 80 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 85 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
100 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. February precipitation was
60 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 35 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 85 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

February Streamflow was around 35 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
120 percent in the Gila, and generally 40 percent in the Little Colorado.

March 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 35 percent of average in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 35 percent of average in the upper Gila,
and 30 percent of average in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states remain near to above average in the Gila and
Little Colorado Basins. Soil moisture states have improved significantly
in the Salt-Verde Basins from the late February and early March storms.

Climate Conditions:

Neutral climate conditions suggest equal chances for above or below average
precipitation. The CPC suggests a possibility of above average precipitation
in Arizona over the next several months.

Forecast Summary:

The lack of snow in Arizona drove much of the water supply volume forecast
for most basins.

The March-May forecast volumes were between 20-61 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, and 56 to 109 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 49 to 65 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /elmatador/home/tjc/wsup/wy15/lc/lcmar.drv
Developed:                    Mar 1 2015

LOWER Colorado
                                  Period      MP   MP%   RMAX   RMIN    AVG
                                  ------    ----   ---   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. Johns, nr    Mar-Jun   1.23    20    4.7   0.60    6.0
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv             Mar-May   0.14    61   0.75   0.05   0.23
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cyn, blo   Mar-May    2.8    20    8.2   0.20   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                        Mar-May     22    65     34   16.0     34
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, blo        Mar-May     26    60     39   18.0     43
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr                    Mar-May    8.1    53   14.5    5.1   15.2
  Clifton                         Mar-May     23    61     32   11.2     38
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Safford V  Mar-May     50    56     78     34     89
  San Carlos Res, Coolidge Dam,   Mar-May     26    49     53    8.9     53
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr                   Mar-May    135    56    192     35    240
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck, abv      Mar-May   19.1    87     40    6.2     22
Verde River
  Blo Tangle Ck, abv Horsehoe Da  Mar-May    117   109    198     71    107

MP    Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
MP%   Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
RMAX  Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
RMIN  Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.



****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      FEBRUARY`15      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             35              85
  Salt                   50              75
  Verde                  65              80
  Little Colorado        85             100
  Bill Williams          40              70

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     MARCH 1 2015
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila              35
  San Francisco           45
  Upper Salt              40
  Verde                   30
  Little Colorado         30


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      FEBRUARY`15
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                  120
  Salt                   55
  Verde                  25
  Little Colorado        40

**************************************************************************

SPECIFIC SITE MONTHLY STREAM FLOW SUMMARY (FEB `15):
Provisional USGS Data

                                   Obs     % Med

  Gila - Gila, nr                 27.0      155
  San Fransisco - Clifton         31.0      130
  Gila - Solomon, nr              73.0      120
  Salt - Roosevelt, nr            45.0       55
  Tonto - Roosevelt, nr            4.8       19
  Verde - Horseshoe Dam, abv      20.0       25

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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