Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS

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557
AWUS01 KWNH 252227
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260425-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0398
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
625 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
CO...SW KANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 252225Z - 260425Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, WITH 850MB WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS,  ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVECT PWS NEAR
1.5 INCHES PER THE LATEST RAP MODEL FORECAST.  PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY EXISTS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE, WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG BASED ON THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS.  THERE IS ALSO SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS
IN PLAY TO ENHANCE ASCENT OVER THIS REGION.  CELL MERGERS LATER
THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES.

IN TERMS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, THE OPERATIONAL HRRR SUGGESTS
SOME 3 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER, AND
THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL HAS SLIGHTER LESS AMOUNTS WITH THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF RAINFALL FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN NM.  THE NAM CONEST IS
MORE ROBUST AND SHOWS UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS
THROUGH 4Z.  THESE AMOUNTS INDICATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
GUIDANCE ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST ARW AND NMMB.

HAMRICK

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   38070233 37540119 36200096 34700101 33800124
            33410219 33490327 34070449 35000545 36540559
            37480520 37990378



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