Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 190908
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SATURDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-192015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 18 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.30 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.29 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.27 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.25 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    40 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.31 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-192015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.26 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.13 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
                    NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (320).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.20 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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