Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 301925
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

...DRY HUDSON BAY HIGH THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON
BAY WILL CONTINUE DRY EAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...MAINTAINING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
EARLY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER TONIGHT AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-010830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0200 UNTIL 0500...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.11 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-010830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.24 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.18 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-010830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1090).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.12 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-010830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 0200 UNTIL 0500...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.20 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1010).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.14 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......25 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-010830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0300...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.32 IN.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1300...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......35 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.16 IN.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND
40. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SWR


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