Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 251058
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DELIVER A BRIEF ROUND
OF CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SLIDES
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
INCHES CLOSER...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ON THE COOLER SIDE.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH THESE FEATURES PROVIDING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN
INTO MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-252015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (970).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-252015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 33 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-252015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......38 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-252015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......41 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 32 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41...EXCEPT 43-48 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-252015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
658 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......36 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 27 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL





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