Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 210915
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
515 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN...

.DISCUSSION...
AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...THE
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN WILL COME TO AN END. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RH LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WHILE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-212015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
515 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......26 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36...EXCEPT 38-43 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-212015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
515 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 71-76 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 41-46 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-212015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
515 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (560).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-212015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
515 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-212015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
515 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY DRIZZLE
                    UNTIL 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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