Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 280933
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
533 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...Showers and Thunderstorms Possibly Heavy at Times this
Afternoon and Tonight...

.DISCUSSION...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY...BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON and TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...with gusty winds.
Otherwise...high pressure will build back into the Upper Great
Lakes Thursday...before the next wave of thunderstorms moves into
the region on Friday.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-282200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
533 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 1400 until 1600, then rain
                    showers. slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    1700.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1210).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.13-0.37 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2300. showers. chance of
                    thunderstorms after 2300.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.64-1.33 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms until 1200, then chance
                    of showers.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........65-70 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (630).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.25 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-282200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
533 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1400 until 1700, then rain
                    showers likely.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1340).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.19 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. showers. chance of
                    thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.95 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 0800. chance of showers
                    until 1400.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (850).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.20 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-282200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
533 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 19 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1120).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.25-0.52 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer...except 10 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.59-1.03 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Showers likely
                    until 0800. chance of showers after 0800 until
                    1400.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (580).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.13 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-282200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
533 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph increasing to around
                    15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (960).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.19-0.47 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 10 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.35-0.81 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    until 0800. chance of showers after 0800 until
                    1400.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (480).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-282200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
533 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1400 until 1500, then rain
                    showers likely until 1700, then rain showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1350).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.29 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers until 2400.
                    chance of thunderstorms. showers likely after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.79 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Showers likely
                    until 0700. chance of showers after 0700 until
                    1400.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (810).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.12 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JSL



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