Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
988
FNUS53 KAPX 170754
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...Periods of rain set for Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...Strong low pressure will cross eastern Lake Superior
and into western Quebec by Saturday morning. The pressure gradient
will be rather tight for gusty conditions today through Friday. The
gusts will be tempered to some degree today due to clouds and
minimal mixing. Maybe decently gusty winds closer to Saginaw Bay
where there could be at least some sun, which may also result in
strong to severe thunderstorms with the capability of producing
damaging winds and a possible tornado. Deeper low level moisture
with scattered light rain and drizzle moves in later tonight and
Friday behind a passing cold front which will also shift winds
fairly gradually to more out of the west. Humidities will be very
high. Little to no rain expected over the weekend with warming
temperatures.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-172015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.50-0.78 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 4 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (100).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.21-0.47 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-172015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........82-87 percent.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.49-0.63 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Periods of
                    showers and scattered thunderstorms until 2400.
                    scattered showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.39 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of showers until
                    1400.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........68-73 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (620).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-172015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Periods of
                    showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........75-80 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......29 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.48-0.72 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms until 2400, then numerous
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.13-0.29 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.13 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-172015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Periods of
                    showers until 1200. scattered thunderstorms.
                    numerous showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......32 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.45-0.58 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered thunderstorms
                    until 2000. scattered showers. isolated
                    thunderstorms after 2000 until 2300.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.11-0.25 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered showers until
                    1400.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (600).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-172015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
354 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......30 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (350).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.52-0.64 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms until 2000. scattered showers.
                    isolated thunderstorms after 2000 until 2300.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.29 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered showers until
                    1400.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........73-78 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.