Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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119
FNUS73 KABR 061328
FWSABR

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAUNU WPA...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
828 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 CDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THERE IS ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TODAY...AND SHOULD
BE PASSING OVER THE BURN SITE BY 1 PM CDT...GIVE OR TAKE AN
HOUR. THERE IS A STRONG NOCTURNAL THERMAL INVERSION NEAR GROUND
LEVEL THIS MORNING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO MIX OUT BEFORE
ANY PRE-FRONTAL GUSTINESS WOULD HAVE A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. THE BURN
SITE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5
TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO MORE OF A WEST
DIRECTION BY NOON PRIOR TO THE FRONT`S PASSAGE. WINDS WILL MAKE
AN ABRUPT SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS SHOULD PICK UP TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
PRECIPITATION AT OR NEAR THE BURN SITE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS MOST PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
RELEGATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE AND LATER IN THE EVENING
AND ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE BURN SITE SHOULD ALSO
MAINTAIN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITION THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT.

.REST OF TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT CLOUD).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    NORTH 11 TO 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 4300-5100 FT AGL AFTER
                    1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 11 TO 16 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN WEST 7
                    TO 12 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN NORTHWEST 14 TO 19
                    MPH UNTIL 1600...THEN NORTH 27 TO 32 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4400-14400) UNTIL 1300. VERY GOOD AFTER
                    1600.
CWR.................ZERO.
LAL.................1.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........30  34  39  44
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............84  82  80  77
RH..............31  32  33  33
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..18  21  21  19
20 FT WIND GUST.25  33  32  30

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT CLOUD) UNTIL
                    2300...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT
                    CLOUD).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN NORTH 5 TO 9
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 28 TO 33 MPH UNTIL 2200. 10 TO 15 MPH
                    AFTER 0100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR (2600-4500).
CWR.................ZERO.
LAL.................1.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........54  53  52  52  49  46  43  39  36  33  25  17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............74  70  65  61  58  56  54  52  50  48  45  43
RH..............35  39  43  48  51  51  52  54  58  60  65  70
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..17  15  14  10  8   7   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  20  20  15  10  10                  10

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT CLOUD).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6700-7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 17 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN 1 TO 6
                    MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN NORTH 8 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2900-12200) UNTIL 1300. GOOD AFTER 1600.
CWR.................ZERO.
LAL.................1.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........10  7   5   3   4   5   6   6   5   4   4   4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............43  46  52  57  61  63  65  66  67  68  69  69
RH..............70  63  48  40  33  30  28  26  25  24  23  23
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...TMT
REQUESTED BY...ERIC HOGGARTH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160506.MAUNU.01/ABR



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