Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 201009
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for TNC-Plum Creek Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
609 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through
the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next
cold front is expected to impact the region early next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds, becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL, increasing to 2600-3600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................58  63  69  71  74  77  77  77  76
RH..................75  65  57  51  44  40  39  37  37
20 FT wind dir......NW  NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd......3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15
Mix hgt (kft).......0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6
Transp wind dir.....W   NW  N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.....6   8   10  12  10  10  12  12  12
LVORI...............3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................4   7   15  26  32  35  38  41  40
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....3   6   11  18  24  30  33  36  36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening, becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1400-2500 ft AGL, decreasing to 300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................73  67  61  57  55  53  52  51  50  49  49  49
RH..................41  50  65  72  74  77  80  80  83  86  83  83
20 FT wind dir......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......2.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.....9   7   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
LVORI...............2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................27  3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....20  8   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL, increasing to 2300-2700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 3 mph, becoming east 3 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............1      1      2      4      5      6
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................49     50     64     73     74     74
RH..................83     83     56     43     41     44
20 ft wind..........N 2    NE 2   NE 2   E 2    SE 2   SE 2
20 ft wind gust.....5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1100   1900   2700   2600
Transport wind......N 3    N 3    E 3    E 3    E 3    E 5
LVORI...............5      5      3      2      2      2
ADI.................2      4      5      8      11     17
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      1      3      5      8      12

$$
Forecaster...ALBRIGHT
Requested by...Gabe Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717599.0/AKQ
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org



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