Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FNUS74 KAMA 101313
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH ROSITA RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
713 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A SHALLOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION THIS MORNING
BUT AS WE WARM MID-LATE MORNING THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AND SO WILL
VENTILATION. AS MIXING INCREASES LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SPOT SITE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 5 TO
7 MPH. NO FRONTS OR BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY AND WIND SHIFTS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. AT
WORST WINDS MAY GO FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY... ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT
LATE THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 16 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1500 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 26 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 10 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............47     64     74     76
RH..............37     21     13     13
20 FT WIND......W 15   W 20   W 20   SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     25     25
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTH 6 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............68     55     48     44     40     37
RH..............17     30     40     47     57     64
20 FT WIND......SW 12  SW 8   W 7    N 8    N 8    N 8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     10     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67.
RH..................MIN 21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............34     34     47     59     66     67
RH..............69     75     47     30     23     21
20 FT WIND......N 8    N 7    N 6    N 5    W 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...BOWERS
REQUESTED BY...TODD WOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160210.SOUTH.02/AMA



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