Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FNUS74 KAMA 240244
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast FOR TURKEY TRACK WILDFIRE...TURKEY TRACK RANCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Amarillo TX
944 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 2200 CDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Rainfall may impact the spot forecast area in the next hour or
two. Winds currently near the wildfire location are out of the
south sustained at 30 MPH gusting up to 40 MPH. Behind the
scattered rain and thunderstorms that is forecast to move in and
around the wildfire location, winds will then shift to
southwesterly between 20-30 MPH around midnight and continue
through the early morning hours on Friday. Winds will then shift
to northwesterly behind a second cold front moving through the
wildfire site by early Friday afternoon with sustained winds
30-35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH.


.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Excellent to excellent (122500-166500 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to fair to fair (25000-26000
                    knot-ft).
Min temperature.....Around 43.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 5 until 2200, then 4 until
                    0100, then 1.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy blowing
                    dust early in the evening. Isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the evening, then
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
                    Rain showers and thunderstorms likely late in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....South 36 to 43 mph shifting to the southwest 29
                    to 35 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......3500-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 1000-2500 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
20-foot winds.......Breezy. Southwest winds 18 to 26 mph. Gusts up
                    to 45 mph decreasing to 35 mph early in the
                    evening, then then 30 mph late in the night.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Haines Index........6 OR high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......40 percent.

Time (CDT)      10 PM  Midngt 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLEAR
Weather Cov.....LIKELY LIKELY
Weather Type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Temp............69     55     51     48
RH..............58     57     56     54
20 Ft Wind......S 24   SW 21  SW 18  SW 20
20 Ft Wind Gust.25                   30
Chc of Pcpn (%).60     60     10     10
Haines Index....3      3      4      4
VentR KtFt/1000.42     58     58     26

.FRIDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (24000-70000 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent to excellent
                    (171000-195000 knot-ft).
Max temperature.....Around 61.
LAL.................1.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Transport winds.....West 28 to 37 mph shifting to the northwest 38
                    to 45 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3500-5000 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Windy. Northwest winds 20 to 28 mph with gusts
                    to around 45 mph increasing to 31 to 33 mph
                    with gusts to around 60 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 OR low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Chance of Pcpn......10 percent.

Time (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  Noon   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather Cov.....
Weather Type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............47     44     49     55     59     61
RH..............62     62     54     45     39     35
20 Ft Wind......SW 20  SW 21  W 22   NW 23  NW 28  NW 33
20 Ft Wind Gust.25     35     40     40     45     60
Chc of Pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
Haines Index....4      3      3      3      2      2
VentR KtFt/1000.24     38     105    116    148    195

$$
Forecaster...Meccariello
Requested by...DALE SMITH
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1705104.0/AMA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.