Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 201132
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR ICE STORM RECOVERY...BORGER OEM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
532 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0600 CST ON JANUARY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE RECOVERY SITE WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY SKIES BY MID TO LATE MORNING. DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS AT
THE RECOVERY SITE THIS MORNING 5 TO 15 MPH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AFTER 1000 HOURS TO 1100 HOURS
CST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RECOVERY SITE AROUND
1000 HOURS TO 1200 HOURS CST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS
FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 1600 HOURS TO 1700 HOURS
CST TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH...AND THEN 5 TO 15 MPH 1900 HOURS TO 2000
HOURS CST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1100 HOURS TO 1300 HOURS CST.

.TODAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (5300-25200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (61300-108500 KNOT-FT)
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (153500-191500 KNOT-FT)
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (214500 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (126800 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO GOOD (54400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
LAL.................1.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    4500-5500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
                    MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 40 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 36 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 32 TO
                    40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO AROUND 25
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............35     34     43     53     59     60
RH..............85     89     62     41     29     26
20 FT WIND......W 14   W 15   W 18   W 23   W 24   W 22
20 FT WIND GUST.20     25     25     35     40     35
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4      4
VRATE KT-FT/10007      5      25     109    192    127

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0-8000 KNOT-FT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
LAL.................1.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 18 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............52     46     43     40     38     37
RH..............33     45     53     62     70     75
20 FT WIND......W 16   SW 14  SW 12  SW 9   SW 10  SW 10
20 FT WIND GUST.25     20     15     10     15     15
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
VRATE KT-FT/10008      6      0      0      0      0

.SATURDAY...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-40200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    GOOD TO EXCELLENT (40400-78000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO FAIR (14000
                    KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
LAL.................1.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5000-6500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TEMP............36     35     43     50     55     56
RH..............75     82     62     54     45     43
20 FT WIND......SW 9   SW 8   SW 9   SW 13  SW 12  W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     20     15     15
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      3      3      3
VRATE KT-FT/10000      4      17     60     77     40

$$
FORECASTER...SCHNEIDER
REQUESTED BY...JASON WHISLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 1700453.3/AMA


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