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Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

000
FNUS73 KAPX 201331
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GREEN TIMBERS...STATE OF MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
931 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORM CONTINUING RIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN
SITE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........77 AT IGNITION...MAX 79.
RH..................62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 18
                    TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-2000 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1300).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........73  74  76  77
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............77  78  78  78
RH..............62  60  60  60
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  10  10
HAINES INDEX....3   3   4   4
SMOKE DISP......120013001100800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 57.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 7 MPH LATE
                    IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........73  69  65  82  84  84  86  89  90  87  79  76
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............77  75  72  69  66  64  62  61  60  59  59  58
RH..............62  64  71  78  84  90  97  97  100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......600 300 100 0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...LEE OSTERLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130520.GREEN.01/APX