Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 241501
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR PUGSLY...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1101 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION......HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
TODAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 53.
RH..................30 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 18
                    TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4700-5400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1000) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1100).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....    CHC CHC CHC SCT
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............48  50  51  52  52
RH..............30  29  29  29  31
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   9
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  20  20
HAINES INDEX....5   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......10001100110011001100

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    EARLY...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 23 TO 32 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........100 99  99  99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............52  51  49  47  45  43  42  41  40  39  39  39
RH..............32  34  39  42  45  49  50  52  57  59  62  64
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..10  10  11  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20

$$
FORECASTER...ANDREW SULLIVAN
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140424.PUGSL.01/APX







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