Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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794
FNUS73 KARX 031200
FWSARX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEAVER DUNES...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
700 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE.

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT IGNITION WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...GUSTING AT TIMES UP
TO 30 MPH AFTER 12 PM. EXPECT A HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 70
DEGREES WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN SITE
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM...BRINGING A QUICK HITTING BAND OF SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
PASSES OVER THE BURN SITE COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
WIND.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND
40 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 71.
RH..................55 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 11 TO 16 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING INCREASING TO 8700-10100 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 7600
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 33 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000-1000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (52500-52500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT /104100
                    KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT /104100
                    KNOT-FT/ EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (155600-197600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
                    MORNING INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (218500-260200
                    KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (250500-281000
                    KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (219900-219900 KNOT-FT).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........11     19     28     48     61     69
WEATHER COV.....                                   SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                                   SCTTRD
TEMP............45     58     68     70     71     69
RH..............79     55     37     33     34     37
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 5    W 9    W 14   W 14   W 14
20 FT WIND GUST.              20     25     30     25
HAINES INDEX....4      5      5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING CLEAR. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF
                    PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................60 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 TO 35 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (189300-189300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO
                    POOR (2200-11000 KNOT-FT).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........62     60     42     7      4      4
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC
TEMP............64     58     54     50     47     43
RH..............48     57     64     68     71     79
20 FT WIND......W 9    NW 6   NW 5   N 5    N 5    N 5
20 FT WIND GUST.20     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61.
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200-7400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (15000-51200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING
                    TO EXCELLENT (119300-153300 KNOT-FT).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........4      5      9      14     14     11
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43     49     55     59     60     61
RH..............76     63     53     44     41     39
20 FT WIND......N 5    N 8    N 10   N 11   N 10   N 9
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     15     20     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...PR
REQUESTED BY...BURN BOSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160503.WEAVE.01/ARX



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