Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FNUS73 KBIS 221304 CCA
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for East Jim Lake...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
804 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cold front will move through the burn area between 2 and 3 pm
CDT. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph will becoming westerly at 10
to 15 mph by 11 am to Noon CDT. Winds will transition to the
northwest behind the front. Gusts to 20 mph are forecast. There is
a slight chance for rain showers this afternoon. For tonight,
winds will become northeast with additional scattered rain
changing to snow showers.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph, becoming west at
                    10 to 15 mph around 11 am to Noon CDT. Winds becoming
                    northwest by mid afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400-3000 ft AGL increasing to
                    6800-8300 ft AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West becoming northwest at 17 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (28700-59500 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (90300 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 (very low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  10  7   9   14  25  37  37
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH
Weather type....                    RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   20  20  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............53  56  60  62  63  64  63  60
RH..............61  54  48  43  39  37  36  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  13  13  12  11  11
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  20  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 3.0 4.5 6.1 6.8 7.5 8.3 6.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.23  23  23  21  21  21  17  17
Haines index....4   4   3   3   4   4   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100029  60  90  109 122 135 124 94

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain in the evening, then
                    chance of rain late in the evening. Chance of
                    snow early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 10 percent after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL decreasing to 1400-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 17 mph shifting to the east 13 to
                    18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (20000-63500 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........47  53  60  68  75  82  90  97  97  97  97  96
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RS  RS  SN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  30  40  40  40  40  40  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  59  54  49  44  42  40  39  38  36  35  34
RH..............44  51  59  66  75  83  85  85  86  87  88  89
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  11  11  11  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.W   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
Transp wind spd.17  13  13  13  18  18  18  17  17  17  18  18
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100064  25  22  20  26  27  28  27  25  23  22  23

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Slight chance of snow early in the
                    morning.
CWR.................10 percent decreasing to 0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......1400-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 18 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (22800-48300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........96        97        96        96
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....SNOW      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10        0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).20        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............33        35        40        44
RH..............89        85        73        68
20 FT wind......NE 10G15  E 11G20   E 13G20   E 14G20
Mix hgt (ft)....1400      1500      1700      2000
Transport wind..E 18      E 22      E 22      E 23
Haines index....2         2         2         2
SDspl kt-ft/100023        29        33        44

$$
Forecaster...AYD
Requested by...ND-AWR
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707480.0/BIS
.EMAIL jeff_dion@fws.gov



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